Ireland Election 2007

[minionofmidas]

True. But Bertie has alot of momentum at the moment. Plus it seems like people are really waking up to the weaknesses of the opposition. Enda Kenny needs a message better than We're not as  incompetent or as corrupt as Fianna Fail.

For as long as I can remember that's all FG's message has ever been...

That's all the message you need to ensure election defeat!

[minionofmidas]

Does this include guesstimates on who will win where?

[minionofmidas]

Good stuff.

[minionofmidas]

What, again (I think I read the explanation before, but forgot) is the reason why Ireland has had Presidents since 1938 but didn't become a Republic until a decade later?

[minionofmidas]

FF/FG is not viewed as an option by anybody in Eire?

[minionofmidas]

So, are you updating your predictions, Jas?

(Avatar in honor of upcoming election, btw.)

[minionofmidas]

When do nominations close?

[minionofmidas]

OK, I have to ask: What's with the new name Lewis of Bettystown?

"of"?

Bettystown is where the father of my student exchange partner from 14 years ago is originally from, and serves as a standin for Trondheim, which is not in Ireland.

[minionofmidas]

So FF will probably win the plurality

Almost certainly. Have they ever not done that post 32?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Might, might not. Probably not, actually, but then a continued FF-PD coalition is perhaps no more realistic. Wait and see...

[minionofmidas]

On the subject of Ireland... historical question: What do the counties of Antrim, Dublin, Carlow, Mayo and Galway have in common?

[minionofmidas]

On the subject of Ireland... historical question: What do the counties of Antrim, Dublin, Carlow, Mayo and Galway have in common?

Can't think of anything that it could be. Another clue?

Economic history. Well, sort of. More like sociopolitical, I suppose.

Early 18th century.

[minionofmidas]

On the subject of Ireland... historical question: What do the counties of Antrim, Dublin, Carlow, Mayo and Galway have in common?

Can't think of anything that it could be. Another clue?

Economic history. Well, sort of. More like sociopolitical, I suppose.

Early 18th century.

OK, really don't know. Wild guess...
Counties were Catholics retained a majority of the land despite the application of the Penal Laws ?

We'd almost have a winner. In no county did Catholics retain a majority of the land - these are the counties where they retained over a quarter.
By contrast, the share in the eight other counties of Ulster and in neighboring Leitrim and Longford was under 5%.

[minionofmidas]

An FG takeover of FF would probably happen in the no. of seats slightly before it would happen in the aggregate first preference vote?

[minionofmidas]

"a cúpla focail" being fluency in Irish?

[minionofmidas]

Progressive Democrats: 0.1% (unlikely) - 5.1%

It's fair to say the 5.1% is just as unlikely.

I'm hearing that the Táiniste/Minister for Justice/PD leader Michael McDowell is "crashing" in Dublin SE.

MoE is somewhat smaller for parties that small I think.

[minionofmidas]

At what time can we expect
- some first round counts to come in
- the first round counts to be completed
- some final counts to come in (that's probably some time tomorrow I guess)
- the final result?

http://www.rte.ie/aertel/751-01.html

[minionofmidas]

Ahé. Something called "first tallies", for every constituency. Not the official first count, mind you, just a partial result towards that.

12:12 Dun Laoghaire, 51% Boxes Open, FF 36%, FG 24%, LAB 15%, PD 7%, GP 8%, SF 2%, IND 8%, Prediction FF2, FG1, LAB1 and 5th ?

12:07 Carlow-Kilkenny, 13% Boxes Open, FF 51%, FG 31%, LAB 6%, PD 1%, GP 7%, SF 4% 

12:05 Cork South-Central, 66% Boxes Open, FF 42%, FG 31%, LAB 9%, PD 3%, GP 9%, SF 5%, Prediction 2FF, 2FG, GP or LAB - last 1

12:02 Tipperary North, 53.64% Boxes Open, FF 37%, FG 16%, LAB 11%, PD 2%, GP 1%, SF 4%, IND 30%, Prediction 1 FF, 1IND, 1FG

12:01 Kerry North, 100% Boxes Open 

12:00 Cavan-Monaghan, 95% Boxes Open, FF 38%, FG 31%, LAB 1%, GP 4%, SF 20%, IND 6%, Prediction No data

12:00 Galway East, 65% Boxes Open, FF 43%, FG 37%, LAB 2%, PD 9%, GP 2%, SF 4%, IND 3% , Prediction 2 FF, 2 FG

11:58 Meath East, 70% Boxes Open, FF 44%, FG 26%, LAB 13%, PD 2%, GP 3%, SF 4%, IND 8%, Prediction FF2, FG1

11:58 Wicklow, 48% Boxes Open, FF 37%, FG 25%, LAB 16%, PD 1%, GP 7%, SF 5%, IND 10%, Prediction 2FF, 2FG, 1Lab. 

11:55 Roscommon-South Leitrim, 53% Boxes Open, Prediction 1 FF, 1 FG and poss FG gain

11:54 Mayo, 49% Boxes Open, FF 26%, FG 54%, LAB 1%, PD 1%, GP 1%, SF 3%, IND 15% 

11:53 Dublin North-East, 75% Boxes Open, FF 39%, FG 23%, LAB 15%, PD 2%, GP 6%, SF 14%, Prediction No data

11:53 Dun Laoghaire, 51.33% Boxes Open, FF 36%, FG 24%, LAB 15%, PD 7%, GP 8%, SF 2%, IND 8%, Prediction FF2, FG1, LAB1 and 5th ?

11:53 Dublin Mid-West, 96% Boxes Open, FF 32%, FG 12%, LAB 10%, PD 12%, GP 10%, SF 9%, IND 9%, WP 1%, Prediction FF

11:51 Dublin Central, 70% Boxes Open, FF 45%, FG 10%, LAB 13%, PD 1%, GP 6%, SF 9%, IND 17%, CSP 1%, Prediction FF-1;IND-1;SF/FG/LAB- last 2

11:51 Sligo-North Leitrim, 55% Boxes Open , FF 40%, FG 36%, LAB 6%, GP 4%, SF 14%, IND 1%

11:51 Kildare North, 50% Boxes Open, FF 39%, FG 21%, LAB 18%, PD 2%, GP 5%, SF 2%, IND 13% , Prediction FF 2, LAB 1


11:50 Cavan-Monaghan, 95% Boxes Open, FF 38%, FG 31%, LAB 1%, GP 4%, SF 20%, IND 6%, Prediction No data


11:49 Dublin North-Central, 27% Boxes Open , FF 46%, FG 27%, LAB 6%, GP 4%, SF 4%, IND 13%, Prediction FF 1, FG 1, last seat FF/IND


11:48 Tipperary North, 36% Boxes Open, FF 38%, FG 15%, LAB 10%, PD 1%, GP 4%, SF 1%, IND 31%, Prediction 2FF, 1IND


11:48 Dublin Mid-West, 96% Boxes Open , FF 32%, FG 12%, LAB 10%, PD 12%, GP 10%, SF 9%, IND 9%, WP 1% , Prediction FF


11:47 Dublin Central, 70% Boxes Open , FF 45%, FG 10%, LAB 13%, PD 1%, GP 6%, SF 9%, IND 17%, CSP 1% 


11:47 Dublin North-Central, 54% Boxes Open , Prediction FF 1, FG 1, last seat FF/IND


11:45 Dublin North-Central, 27% Boxes Open , FF 47%, FG 25%, LAB 6%, GP 3%, SF 6%, IND 13% , Prediction FF 1, FG 1, last seat FF/IND 


11:42 Cork North-West, 85% Boxes Open , FF 51%, FG 39%, LAB 4%, GP 4% , Prediction FF2 FG1


11:42 Dublin Mid-West, 96% Boxes Open , Prediction FF


11:40 Dublin North-West, 35% Boxes Open 


11:39 Laois-Offaly, 40% Boxes Open , FF 55%, FG 28%, PD 9% 


11:38 Tipperary North, 36% Boxes Open , FF 38%, FG 15%, LAB 10%, PD 1%, GP 1%, SF 4%, IND 31% , Prediction 2FF, 1IND


11:37 Laois-Offaly, 40% Boxes Open , FF 55%, FG 28%, PD 9% 


11:36 Tipperary South, 67% Boxes Open , FF 46%, FG 22%, LAB 8%, PD 1%, GP 1%, SF 3%, IND 15% , Prediction 1 FG, 1 FF, 1 IND


11:36 Cavan-Monaghan, 60% Boxes Open

11.35 Dublin South-Central, 50% Boxes Open , FF 32%, FG 12%, LAB 19%, PD 2%, GP 4%, SF 13%, IND 17%, CSP 0%, WP 1% , Prediction 2FF, 2LAB, 1SF


11.35 Dublin North, 60% Boxes Open , FF 39%, FG 12%, LAB 12%, PD 2%, GP 17%, SF 3%, IND 4%, SP 10%, CSP 0% , Prediction 2FF,1GP,1Lab/FG/Soc

11:04 Dublin South, 44.22% Boxes Open , FF 43%, FG 25%, LAB 12%, PD 6%, GP 10%, SF 3%, IND 0% , Prediction None


11:04 Dublin South-Central, 32% Boxes Open , FF 33%, FG 11%, LAB 15%, PD 1%, GP 3%, SF 15%, IND 19%, CSP 0%, WP 1%, Prediction 2FF, 2LAB, 1SF


11:33 Dublin West, 100% Boxes Open , FF 37%, FG 20%, LAB 17%, PD 2%, GP 4%, SF 5%, SP 15% , Prediction None


11:00 Donegal South-West, 40% Boxes Open , FF 53%, FG 26%, LAB 2%, GP 2%, SF 16%, IND 1% , Prediction FF2, FG1


11:08 Galway East, 43% Boxes Open , FF 44%, FG 42%, LAB 1%, PD 7%, GP 1%, SF 4%, IND 1%, Prediction 2 FF, 2 FG


11:01 Kildare North, 25% Boxes Open , FF 40%, FG 19%, LAB 18%, PD 2%, GP 5%, SF 2%, IND 14% , Prediction FF 2, LAB 1, IND 1


11:23 Kildare South, 63% Boxes Open , FF 49%, FG 17%, LAB 23%, PD 4%, GP 5%, IND 1% , Prediction 2 FF, 1 LAB

11:37 Laois-Offaly, 40% Boxes Open , FF 55%, FG 28%, PD 9%


11:26 Longford-Westmeath, 28% Boxes Open , FF 41%, FG 39%, LAB 4%, PD 10%, GP 1%, SF 4%, IND 0%, CSP 0%


10:26 Louth, 21% Boxes Open , FF 46%, FG 31%, LAB 5%, GP 8%, SF 16%, IND 1%, WP 0% , Prediction FF 2, FG 1, SF1


11:08 Mayo, 31% Boxes Open, FF 27%, FG 56%, LAB 1%, PD 1%, GP 1%, SF 1%, IND 13%


11:02 Sligo-North Leitrim, 55% Boxes Open , FF 49%, FG 21%, LAB 8%, GP 5%, SF 17%, IND 1%


11:38 Tipperary North, 36% Boxes Open , FF 38%, FG 15%, LAB 10%, PD 1%, GP 1%, SF 4%, IND 31% , Prediction 2FF, 1IND


11:07 Waterford, 22.1% Boxes Open , FF 44%, FG 28%, LAB 12%, GP 2%, SF 8%, IND 2%, WP 3% , Prediction 2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Lab.


Sorry, this is the order in which they came, from the RTÉ.
And some of these are not very informative.

[minionofmidas]

No first counts yet for Donegal NE, Dublin NW, Dublin SC, Laois-Offaly, and Wicklow.
Dublin Mid-West, SW, W, and Limerick W complete.

Dublin Mid-West:
1 FF, 1 Green, 1 PD, 1 Labour
Dublin SW:
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Dublin W:
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Limerick W:
2 FF, 1 FG

Comparing these with Jas' predictions:
Dublin MW is correct, although Tuffy is wrongly listed as an FG candidate at the top of the post (but correctly as Labour lower down - I suspect Jas changed his call from FG to Labour there at one point, and was right in doing so. It was close between those two.)
Dublin SW is false. Lenihan was easily elected on the first count, it was his running mate who struggled, but he too pulled through in the end. SF's Sean Crowe lost his seat. Brian Hayes (FG) found election easier than Jas predicted, as well.
Shame about Jas being proved wrong in Dublin West.
Limerick W is correct as far as persons elected go, tho' the closest race was between the two FG candidates rather than between the second FF and the second FG guy.

[minionofmidas]

Laois-Offaly is the only 1st count still missing. There's more completed constituencies now (comparisons with Jas to be edited in):

Cork NW
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, including on which FF man loses out.

Dublin SE
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Jas was too pessimistic on Labour's chances here. Quinn held on, instead PD leader McDowell went out. Correct on which new FF face was elected, correct on the FG pickup. Wrong on Gormley (Green)'s vote; Jas expected him to top the poll but in fact he was the last declared winner.

Kerry N
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF
Labour didn't get as close as Jas hoped, but another perfectly correct call.

Kildare N
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG
Jas predicted i Catherine Murphy to hold on, instead there was a second FF seat.

Kildare S
2 FF, 1 Labour
Correct call.

Sligo - N Leitrim
2 FF, 1 FG
Jas *said* this one was hard (although he seems to have thought 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF more likely than 2 FF, 1 FG). Although as it turns out Scanlon, not Devins, was the safe FF candidate. Devins narrowly beat Comiskey (FG) whom Jas put ahead.

Tipperary S
2 FF, 1 FG
D Mansergh (FF)'s lead, after redistribution of surpluses, is just 59 votes, and he's not listed as elected at RTE Aertel (which I'm using). I suppose there's a recount going on?
A near miss - Jas noticed that Healy (i) was in trouble. Of course, if the recount overturns things (doubtful), he'll turn out right in the end.

Just coming in...

Recounts underway in Kerry South and Tipperary South.

That answers that question.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Longest-sitting TD? He looks pretty young for that...

[minionofmidas]

New seats in:
Cork SW
2 FG, 1 FF
Correct on party headline figures, wrong on which FF man went down.

Dublin S
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Green
Should have gone with "most people now". O'Donnell (PD) wasn't even the runner-up; another FF candidate was. (And a well outdistanced runner-up at that.)

Kerry S
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 i
"the sitting oddity that is Independent ex-FF TD Jackie Healy-Rae" pulled through after all, and the closest competition came from FF rather than Labour. Correct on the FG pickup.

Meath W
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, seems to have been a relatively easy one though.

Roscommon - S Leitrim
2 FG, 1 FF
False. Feighan (FG) did better than Jas expected here (and better than his running mate), and being from Leitrim was not enough for Ellis (FF).

Wexford
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Correct on the party headline figures, but Jas' should have gone with his hunch that Twomey (...) "could be unseated by fellow party members". Didn't even get all that close to getting back in.

No word out on the Tipperary recount.

[minionofmidas]

Edited to show comparison with the exit poll:

Actual Current Returns
[Party - Seats - Share of the Vote - Change in Share on 2002 - Change on exit poll]
FF 54 (41.6%; +0.1; 0)
FG 25 (27.3%; +4.8; +1.0)
Lab 10 (10.1%; -0.6; +0.2)
PD 1 (2.7%; -1.2; +0.1)
Green 3 (4.7%; +0.8; -0.1)
SF 2 (6.9%; +0.4; -0.4)
Other 2 (6.6%; -4.3; -0.9)

[minionofmidas]

Is it, like, quite 100% assured that Ahern will still be PM on these results? I'm beginning to wonder actually.

[minionofmidas]

Update on results vs Jas' predictions. Now in Jas' original order.

Cavan-Monaghan
3 FF because of antidemocratic speakership rules, 1 SF, 1 FG
False. Seems like being from Cavan was not enough for Joe O'Reilly (FG). FF squeaked in instead.
This would have gone 2-2-1 if all five seats had been up for election, beyond a sliver of a doubt.

Donegal NE
2 FF, 1 FG.
FG much stronger than Jas expected here, with SF missing out on a gain. Also had the wrong FFer losing out. FF infighting didn't leave this one all that far off a perfect storm single-FF-elected result. Of course this was ultra-hard to predict.
You really, really should let 6-seat counties be a single seat. 3-seaters distort results too much.

Donegal SW
2 FF, 1 FG.
Again, close call between FG and SF with a weird outside possibility of 1-1-1. Again, SF lose out where Jas predicted FG to do so.

Galway E
2 FG, 2 FF.
Perfect prediction, though McHugh got slaughtered.

Galway W
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG, 1 PD
Predicted a Green gain from PDs, otherwise correct.

Mayo
3 FG, 1 FF, 1 i
Correct on party headlines, wrong on which FG candidate lost out (but correct on which two were in contention for that).

Roscommon - Leitrim S
2 FG, 1 FF
False. Feighan (FG) did better than Jas expected here (and better than his running mate), and being from Leitrim was not enough for Ellis (FF).

Sligo - Leitrim N
2 FF, 1 FG
Jas *said* this one was hard (although he seems to have thought 1 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF more likely than 2 FF, 1 FG). Although as it turns out Scanlon, not Devins, was the safe FF candidate. Devins narrowly beat Comiskey (FG) whom Jas put ahead.

Cork E
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call.

Cork NC
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call.

Cork NW
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, including on which FF man loses out.

Cork SC
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Jas didn't see the Green seat loss here (and thus had to pick between an FG gain and a Labour gain, where both happened in the end). Can't blame him. Also wrong on which FFer lost out, though, but again, can't really blame him.

Cork SW
2 FG, 1 FF
Correct on party headline figures, wrong on which FF man went down.

Clare
2 FF, 2 FG
James Breen lost narrowly, to FG as Jas thought possible (but didn't predict). The bit about Green outside chances though... (shakes head)

Kerry N
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 SF
Correct call, though O'Brien never stood a chance.

Kerry S
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 i
"the sitting oddity that is Independent ex-FF TD Jackie Healy-Rae" pulled through after all, and the closest competition came from FF rather than Labour. Correct on the FG pickup.

Limerick E
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Perfect call that Jas called "bold". Congrats.

Limerick W
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call. (Though it was closer between the two FG men than between FF and FG).

Tipperary N
1 i, 1 FG, 1 FF
Correct call.

Tipperary S
2 FF, 1 FG
A near miss - Jas noticed that Healy (i) was in trouble.

Waterford
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Another good call.

Carlow - Kilkenny
3 FF, 1 FG, 1 Green
Classic case of underestimating FF staying power. Correct on the Green gain from Labour.

Kildare N
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG
Jas predicted i Catherine Murphy to hold on, instead there was a second FF seat.

Kildare S
2 FF, 1 Labour
Correct call.

Laois - Offaly
3 FF, 2 FG
Perfect as usual.

Longford - Westmeath
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG
Perfect call on a new constituency. Well done, man.

Louth
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 SF
Woefully underestimating Seamas Kirk, who beat everybody. McGuiness did come close, but the loser would have been SF.

Meath E
2 FF, 1 FG
Byrne (FF) got in instead of Hannigan (L). See what I said about 6-seaters. Ahern's government may well be saved by the Donegal and Meath constituency splits alone, which basically net FF one completely undeserved seat each at the expense of SF & Labour.

Meath W
2 FF, 1 FG
Correct call, seems to have been a relatively easy one though.

Wexford
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
Correct on the party headline figures, but Jas' should have gone with his hunch that Twomey (...) "could be unseated by fellow party members". Didn't even get all that close to getting back in.

Wicklow
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Labour
No comment. -_-

Dublin C
2 FF, 1 i, 1 Labour
Pretty bad call here; Jas seems not to have seen the 2nd FF hold at all. Mind you, Brady got in on less than a thousand first preferences. SF not even runners up (but fairly strong for that.)

Dublin MW
1 FF, 1 Green, 1 PD, 1 Labour
correct, although Tuffy is wrongly listed as an FG candidate at the top of the post (but correctly as Labour lower down - I suspect Jas changed his call from FG to Labour there at one point, and was right in doing so. It was close between those two.)

Dublin N
2 FF, 1 Green, 1 FG
Correct on the FG pickup from Labour, way too optimistic on Daly.

Dublin NC
1 FG, 1 FF, 1 i
Should have stuck with his original prediction here.

Dublin NE
1 Labour, 1 FG, 1 FF
Near miss. Correct on the FF loss, and on which FF guy went down. Saw the battle for the pickup as a tossup and plumped for the wrong party (SF instead of FG).

Dublin NW
2 FF, 1 Labour
Another case of overestimating SF and underestimating FF, but he said it was close (tho' he didn't call it a tossup.)

Dublin S
2 FF, 2 FG, 1 Green
Should have gone with "most people now". O'Donnell (PD) wasn't even the runner-up; another FF candidate was. (And a well outdistanced runner-up at that.)

Dublin SC
2 FF, 1 Labour, 1 FG, 1 SF
Correct call, though Ó Snodaigh really struggled there at the end.

Dublin SE
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Jas was too pessimistic on Labour's chances here. Quinn held on, instead PD leader McDowell went out. Correct on which new FF face was elected, correct on the FG pickup. Wrong on Gormley (Green)'s vote; Jas expected him to top the poll but in fact he was the last declared winner.

Dublin SW
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
false. Lenihan was easily elected on the first count, it was his running mate who struggled, but he too pulled through in the end. SF's Sean Crowe lost his seat. Brian Hayes (FG) found election easier than Jas predicted, as well.

Dublin W
1 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour
Shame about Jas being proved wrong here.

Dún Laoghaire
2 FF, 1 FG, 1 Labour, 1 Green
Correct on party headlines, wrong on who got in for FG. Good enough, I suppose.

[minionofmidas]

First things first, hello there. Good to have another Irish voice around.

Yet as Garret Fitzgerald said on RTE Radio, if Kenny did so bad in the debate how come FG gained 20 seats???.....strange

Yeah, I heard this. He has a point, but I think that Kenny did lose the debate, it just didn't hurt him. Being at the debate at all was probably beneficial, it made him look like the contender - in what was quite a Presidential style election.

In a sense, this election was just a restoration of normal service for FG.

[minionofmidas]

This election has completely destroyed the PDs. Losing six of their 8 TDs has to hurt, but the PDs also have the problem of no longer having popular incumbents. I really can't see the PDs returning in most of the constituencies they lost;

Yeah, they really were routed. Though it's not quite impossible that they could keep going. They still have a natural constituency (small though it is) - particularly in the leafier areas south of the Liffey in Dublin.

And in Galway.
Although looking at the count there, the minor PD candidates' votes transferred very badly to the incumbent one, and I wouldn't quite rule out, at this point, that Mary Harney will be the sole survivor.