Ireland Election 2007

[Kevinstat]

Cork South-Central (5)      
Martin, Mícheál (FF)* - Safer than a safe in a safe place   
Coveney, Simon (FG)* - Safe FG   
Boyle, Dan (GP)* - Lean   
Dennehy, John (FF) - Safe FF   
Clune, Deirdre (FG) - Lean FG

If Dennehy (FF) or Clune (FG) don't get seats, I'd be fairly sure that it would be a party compatriot who gets in in their place.

Did you perhaps mean to say "if Dennehy or Coveney don't get seats..."?  You listed Coveney's seat as "Safe FG" (rather than simply "Safe" and listed Clune's seat as "Lean FG" (indicating you wern't as certain that FG would win a second seat as you were that FF would win at least two seats and that FG would win at least one).  I know you aren't guaranteeing that what you are predicting (even the seats you consider safe for a candidate or party) will be the result, but I thought I'd clear up what might have been a minor typo.

[Kevinstat]

No prob

[Kevinstat]

I'm well aware of the (rather rude) joke, but what is the actual difference between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael?

Now I'm curious as to what that joke is.

I think it's that the difference between the two parties is the difference between sh*t and sh*te, perhaps a reference to Fine Gael's or its predecessor party's original pro-concilliation policy vis-a-vis Great Britain, where people seem to call sh*t "sh*te".

[Kevinstat]

The most optimistic FG predictions put them in the high 50's with FF down to the very low 60's. It would be really astonishing if FG became the largest party.

Has FG ever been the larger of the two in the Dail?

Dave

Not since they became Fine Gael is what I reckon from prior posts on this thread.

[Kevinstat]

I know which Independents are ex-FF, ex-FG, and "true Independents" and I know (and know where to keep track) of which of those Independents have been approched and which have entertained talks with both major parties, but I'm curious as to which Independents are closer ideologically with the PDs and which are closer ideologically with Labour and the Greens (which I'm sure have some ideological differences themselves or else they'd be one party - only the dinosaur parties remain separate over a 74-year old civil war that is older than they are.

[Kevinstat]

How do by-elections to the Dáil Éireann work?  Is it one-winner STV (IRV, or the "Alternative Vote" if you're a Brit )?  That would seem most likely, although not exactly fair to the smaller parties particularly if the vacancy was held by one of theirs, but if you don't have a backup list as you do in the Northern Ireland Assembly that that is probably the best that can be done.  Would it work the same way if Beverly Flynn were actually still a member of FF at the time she was expelled/forced out and had been at the time of this just past election (ie. an IRV special election rather than an FF TD automatically getting in or some method which keeps the dispersion of votes in the last general election in mind)?  FG would still be likely to win the seat in a non-proportional one-winner election as this is Mayo (although the FG advantage there now may have more to do with it being Edna Kenny's home base than anything).

[Kevinstat]

Thanks, Jas.

If two vacancies in the same constituency occured at the same time (or close to the same time), would there be a 2-winner STV election?  Has that (or two 1-winner STV elections in the same Dáil Éirean constituency at the same time if that's the way it's done) ever happened?

This will be the last of my questions for now, and I will actually try to research that quickly myself.  Your Elections Ireland site (I think it's yours) and the nations official site might have a list of by-elections I can check out.

[Kevinstat]

I just answered my own question.  The answer is that there can be multi-winner STV by-elections.  There were a couple as early as 1925, although the law could have changed since then, although the basics of Ireland's election law - the method of election at least - seems to have remarkable stability for a country with an alternative (from FTTP) election system.  I can't see any more 2-winner ones yet.

[Kevinstat]

I bet you'll like having as much voting clout as those in other 5-seat constituencies.  Although O'Hanlon is from Moneghan, right?  In which case 4 of the five TDs in your constituency are from your county from your post on your candidate ranking.  I don't know what the populations and voter registration totals of the two counties are, but based on the candidates for the major parties it seems like the two are approximately equal in population.  I imagine one of Moneghan's four seats would fall to Cavan in the next election if the Ceann Comhairle is from another constitency (and/or stepping down) going into that election.  Still, I've heard you speak of the "anti-democratic speakership rules" or something like that so I imagine you might be happy to not have that affect you next time (assuming you're still living in that constituency).

[Kevinstat]

It now looks like the government will have a solid majority.

Government
[89]
- Ceann Comhairle 1 (O'Donohue)
= 88

So Kerry South will be a 2-seater in the next election unless O'Donohue steps down (unless the seat gained a TD or there was significantly redrawn before the next election).  I wonder how Jackie Healy-Rae (who is from the same constituency, for those who don't know) feels about that.  Will Fianna Fail field two candidates in Kerry South in the next election if it's a two-seater and Healy-Rae were running for reelection?  I couldn't see them winning both seats with Healy-Rea drawing as many votes from them as he generally does, but they well exceeded a Droop/Newland-Britton (sp?) quota (1/(x+1) with or without 1 vote added to the quota, one of which Ireland seems to use) for a 2-seater in the last two elections so they wouldn't have to worry about getting wiped out there (well, they couldn't get wiped out with the Speaker automatically in, but you get what I mean) if they ran two candidates in opposition to Healy-Rae.