SC: Survey USA: Moore(D) is close to Sanford(R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: South Carolina Governor by Survey USA on 2006-09-28

Summary: D: 46%, R: 50%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Deano963]

This smells like an outlier. I don't think Moore is close to Sanford. I would like him to be, but I don't think he is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Anyway Sanford is at 50% so even if Moore is within 4 points it won't matter because he has essentially won the race with 50%. If he was in the 40's it would be different.

[adam]

This smells like an outlier. I don't think Moore is close to Sanford. I would like him to be, but I don't think he is.

I concur.

[ian]

Why, if this poll were correct, would this happen in the first place?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Sanford has been getting some minor political heat because of his support of Comptroller General Eckstrom who has found himself in a mild scandal over using his state provided vehicle and gas card for a trip to Michigan.  The scandal might well see Eckstrom lose to Drew Theodore, but I wouldn't have thought it would have much effect upticket.  We've also had some more bad unemployment news, but not significantly worse than what we have been having, and that hadn't had much effect previously.  It may be that it's been enough to cause the undecideds to break towards the Democrats, but until I see either a second poll like this one, or some ads from Moore, I'm keeping SC as a safe GOP gubernatorial race in my predictions.  (Not that Sanford's ads have been all that great, filled with generic Sanford is a good guy political pablum.)

[ATFFL]

S-USA seems to have been really wonky so far this year.  Recently, at least.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not really, their NH, IL, and OK governor races were way off compared to the regular voting in these states.

[Smash255]

Not really, their NH, IL, and OK governor races were way off compared to the regular voting in these states.

I agree this poll seems a bit off, but you do realize that the SUSA polls, have generally been within a few points of some of the other pols that are out in those respective states.  As far as how the state usually votes, keep in mind how a state votes on state level races can differ from national races, and also the candidates themselves do matter.

SUSA has had it a little close than some of the other pollsters, but with the exception of the poll that had Blagovich up by 30 (which is a bit silly) the others have been in the same ballpark as SUSA.  its a strong Dem state, but because of some of hiws own problems Blagovich is not likley to do as well as a Dem typically would in the state.

In OK, SUSA has Henry's lead a few points higher than some of the others, but virtually everyone is showing a Henry blowout.  GOP state nationally, much more Dem on the state level than it is on the National level, not to mention henry is a very well liked conservative Demcrat.

NH.  Anything and everything is showing Lynch with a tremendous lead.  Hell the recent Univ of N.H poll has showed him with an even larger lead than the SUSA poll.  One of the most popula Govenors in the entire country going up against a no name, what do you expect???

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, the NH poll had Lynch winning by 73pts not 69 pts, and the TN governor had Bredeson winning by 63 pts and most of the polls had it 59%.

[Alcon]

No, the NH poll had Lynch winning by 73pts not 69 pts, and the TN governor had Bredeson winning by 63 pts and most of the polls had it 59%.

You misunderstand "winning by points."  That's the margin, not the percentage had.

[Smash255]

No, the NH poll had Lynch winning by 73pts not 69 pts, and the TN governor had Bredeson winning by 63 pts and most of the polls had it 59%.

i

wow a difference of 4pts.  And I was also referring to MARGIN of lead.  The SUSA had Lynch up by 50, U of NH had Lynch up by 55%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wasn't talking about being a few points off I just said it has overstated Dem support in the polls anyway no matter if it was a few points, a few points in overstating the poll. And Rasmussen had Bredeson at 58 not at 63%.