MD: Public Opinion Strategies: Cardin(D) has a narrow lead on Steele(R)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Maryland Senator by Public Opinion Strategies on 2006-10-04

Summary: D: 47%, R: 43%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Adlai Stevenson]

Also:

33% Definitely Steele
36% Definitely Cardin

This race will remain relatively close, i.e. Cardin leading by about 4%-6% until the final week or so.  I then predict that he will pull ahead - because traditionally Democratic voters who flirted with voting for Steele, i.e. African Americans, Moderates and Independents will 'come home'.  In the end I think Cardin wins around 53%-54% to Steele's 45%. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't predict that I predict Cardin wins 51-48%.

[Mike in Maryland]

POS usually polls for Republicans here, and the fact that National Review released this survey (with a laughably one-sided writeup) doesn't add to its credibility, IMO.  On the other hand, the Zogby/Reuters phone poll (NOT Zogby interactive) released today seems to overstate Cardin's margin just a tad.

I think the Mason-Dixon survey (Cardin up by 6) seems closest to the mark.  My prediction, at this point, is somewhere in the neighborhood of a 5-point Cardin win.  However, depending on circumstances, anything from a narrow Steele win to a Cardin landslide is possible.