NY-24 and, unless things change rapidly in the Foley scandal, NY-26 are lost to the Republicans. NY-20 and NY-25 also stand a good chance of flipping, and I wouldn't rule out NY-29. The rest, I do rule out, though I wouldn't be extraordinarily surprised if a massive wave tossed the GOP out of NY-03 and NY-13.
NY 26 is very likley Dem, and I think they take NY-24 as well. From that point on, with the exception of NY-23 the Dems could possibly take everything else. Now they would need a rather large wave for that to happen, and I think its rather unlikley, but not entirley out of the question. I would rate NY-03's chances a bit higher than Ny-13 though, though both are in the likley GOP camp. NY-13 I would say ranks 8th among seats to flip, while NY-03 I would say is 5th or 6th on the list.
chances of flipping
will flip
1.NY-26 85%
probably flips, but GOP can hold
2. NY-24 60%
GOP has an edge, but Dems have a good shot
3. NY-20 45%
4. NY-29 43%
GOP likley holds it, but not safe
5. NY-25 35%
5. NY-3 35%
More than likley GOP holds, barring direct scandal Dem needs huge wave
7. NY-19 25%
8. NY-13 20%
something real major needs to go down
9. NY-23 10%
Poll
