Gay Marriage Amendment

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While no one is surprised by this, the timing was uncertain until now.  This schedule clearly is meant to hurt Kerry at the convention, as a latter vote would be more effective against Senate Dems running for re-election.

The question is: do Senate Dems rally to support Kerry, or defect to save their own butts?

Bonus question: will the number of defecting Republicans be greater or less than the number of defecting Dems?

My prediction: Dems support Kerry, 3 defections from both parties.

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I think something close to 50/50 is pretty much a given, but whether that has impact on Kerry depends on the makeup of the vote.  A straight party-line vote casts the issue as a partisan one; several defections each way show the issue to be somewhat non-partisan.  The party-line outcome hurts Kerry slightly, the other has little effect.

As far as strategy goes, it would have been better for Bush to let the Defense of Marriage Act vote be the only gage of Kerry's record on this.  That vote was 85 yea/15 nay, with Kerry on the nays; that outcome makes Kerry look more extreme.  If several Republicans vote with Kerry against the GMA, then no one will care about the 1996 vote.

However, the vote schedule does force Kerry to address the issue shortly before he appears in Boston at the convention--in a state that is struggling with this issue.  If his strategy is to defend his senate vote while avoiding a stand on the state issue, then we could possibly see a blunder at the worst possible time for him.

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John Kerry's stance on Gay Marriage:
Under the rather cryptic name of "LGBT" (other groups and issues are clearly labeled) Kerry pushes his Gay Rights record.  However:
- He makes no mention of the Gay Marriage Amendment
- He makes no mention of his vote against the Defense of Marriage Act
- He makes no mention of the issue in his home state

This is how Kerry dodges the issue on his own website on a page specifically targeting gays and lesbians.  With leadership like that, do you think Kerry will even show up for the vote on the amendment?

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Latest news:
The Senate failed to get 60 votes to bring it to a floor vote.
Six Republicans defected to make the vote 48-50.  I believe the two missing votes were Kerry and Edwards, but I don't have a full report yet.
51 minus 6 is 45, so looks like three Democrats defected.

edit:
Yes, Kerry and Edwards missed the vote.

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Does voting against a floor vote in the case of a constitutional amendment qualify as filibustering?
Can Republicans use the word "filibuster" to attack Dems that voted against a vote?
Does Kerry's and Edwards' missing of the vote hurt them with swing voters?  Does Kerry's failure to address the issue in a meaningful way hurt his standing among gay rights activists?

My opinions:
Gay rights activists know Kerry takes them for granted and will vote for him anyway.  Kerry will suffer very little from his constant dodges of the issue.

Kerry would have been better off showing up for the vote and making a case for not changing the constitution.  Bush will take the missed senate vote, add it to a list of other important missed votes, and make an issue of this.  Kerry can't sell his presidency to swing voters by refusing to show leadership on issues.