One State - One Vote : The 269-269 tie

[khirkhib]

Election Projection is predicting the 269-269 tie again.


In the Most Likely Tie Scenario, Kerry keeping Gore’s states and gaining New Hampshire and Nevada, the House of Representatives will decide the election.  Each state will be given only 1 vote to be decided by its reps. Though this vote will be held in January with the new reps it is much more likely that Bush would win in the Vote.  Assuming the composition of each state’s representatives do not change radically Bush would easily garner the votes of 22 states. Kerry should have no problem getting 10.  The interesting thing is though Bush would only need 3 more states to win the vote he could possibly get all 16 other votes out of party loyalty and/or fear of not getting re-elected.  Basically though this shows it in the EV tie Bush is going to waltz back into the oval office.

I predict in the Vote 31 states go to Bush and 19 go to Kerry.
Please if somebody knows more about the congressional race could you show the likely composition of the states.




(map Dark Red/Blue Reps votes would clearly go to chosen candidate -- Light Red/Blue  Reps may vote for party out of loyalty or against own party and fear of reprecussions from constituents)

State - Likley Polutar Vote - Composition of House Reps - Likely Representative Vote
Safe for Bush
Alabama   - Bush  - R 5 D 2  - Bush
Alaska – Bush – R1  - Bush
Arizona – Bush – R6 D2  - Bush
Colorado  - Bush – R 5 D 2 – Bush
Florida – Bush – R 18 D 7 – Bush
Georgia – Bush - R 8 D5 – Bush
Idaho - Bush – R 1 – Bush
Indiana – Bush – R 6 D 3 – Bush
Kansas – Bush – R 3 D 1 - Bush
Kentucky – Bush – R 4 D1 – Bush
Louisiana – Bush – R 4 D 3 – Bush
Mississippi – Bush – R 2 D 2 – Bush
Missouri – Bush – R 5 D 4 – Bush
Montana – Bush – R 1 – Bush
Nebraska – Bush – R 3 – Bush
North Carolina – Bush  - R 7 D 6  - Bush
Ohio – Bush – R 12 D6  - Bush
Oklahoma – Bush – R 4 D 1 – Bush
South Carolina – Bush – R 4 D 2 – Bush
Utah – Bush – R 2 D 1 – Bush
Virginia – Bush – R 8 D 3 – Bush
Wyoming – Bush – R 1 – Bush

Safe For Kerry
California  - Kerry  - R 20 D 33  – Kerry
Hawaii – Kerry – D 2 – Kerry
Maine – Kerry – D 2 – Kerry
Massachusetts – Kerry – D10 – Kerry
Maryland – Kerry – D 5 R 2 - Kerry
New Jersey – Kerry – R 6 D 7 – Kerry
New York – Kerry – R 10 D 18 – Kerry
Oregon – Kerry – R 1 D 4 – Kerry
Rhode Island – Kerry – D 2 – Kerry
Washington – Kerry – R 3 D 6 - Kerry

Interesting - How would the Reps Vote?
Probably for Bush
Arkansas  - Bush  - R 1 D 3  - Bush
New Hampshire – Kerry – R 2 – Bush
New Mexico – Kerry – R 2 D 1 – Bush
North Dakota – Bush – D1 – Bush
Pennsylvania – Kerry - R 12 D 7 - Bush
South Dakota – Bush – D 1 – Bush
Tennessee – Bush – R 4 D 5  - Bush
Texas – Bush - R 15 D 17 – Bush
West Virginia – Bush – R 1 D 2 - Bush

Probably for Kerry
Connecticut – Kerry – R 3 D 2 – Kerry
Delaware – Kerry – R1 – Kerry
Illinois – Kerry  - R 10 D9 – Kerry
Iowa - Kerry – R 3 D1 - Kerry
Nevada – Kerry – R1 D1 – Kerry
Michigan – Kerry  - R 8 D 7 - Kerry
Minnesota – Kerry  - R 4 D 3 – Kerry
Vermont – Kerry – I 1 – Kerry
Wisconsin – Kerry – R 4 D 4 - Kerry

Washington DC would not have a vote

[Lunar]

It's more likely for Kerry to gain West Virginia and New Hampshire.  Both of those states are lean Kerry right now, even as Pennsylvania and Nevada are both bad for Kerry if the election were held today.

[khirkhib]

Basically I wanted to demonstrate that barring a major democratic take-over of the house Bush would easily be voted into Washington in the case of an electoral tie.