I didn't say it wouldn't work for Rendell, I said it wouldn't work for Casey. Rendell doesn't need help of any machine, Swann can't win. Rendell would have to die or get caught in a major scandal for Swann to have a chance in this race.
Casey himself has no turnout machine... at all... period. Instead of investing in a real ground effort, he has put his money into attack ads and used his campaign staff to engage in certain underhanded activities that I am not free to discuss at the moment.
As for the SE... Casey is acctually pretty weak there. His popularity in the Philly burbs has never been very high, and high turnout there is going to be, at best, a results-neutral kind of thing... don't believe me, ask Flyers and Bullmoose.
Wrong again. Again, none of your opinions are based on any fact. Of course Rendell needs his machine to win. Most of his votes will come form the SE. You don't just up and abandon your turnout machine b/c the polls say you are up 20 points. Would Santorum do that? I didn't think so - so why would Rendell? Your little theories MAKE NO SENSE.
Where is your evidence that Casey has no turnout operation? Also, most individual candidates don't have their own turnout machines, i'm sorry to tell you Soulty. The state parties have permanent turnout operations that they gear up every cycle, and i'm guessing the DEM party of PA's turnout machine is pretty good seeing as how they won the past 4 Prez elections. Hmmmm....who are they trying to defeat this cycle? A guy by the name of Santorum maybe? I don't think Casey will be hurt by lack of turnout until you provide me with EVIDENCE as to otherwise. His "lack of turnout" sure didn't hurt him in '04 when he won the most popular votes in a statewide election in PA history.
Wrong again. Philly suburbs will vote for Casey over Santorum. Where do you think Casey's 10-point is coming from if he dosen't lead in the Philly, Pitt and the burbs? You think he's leading Santorum in central PA? HAHA! They (Philly burbs) will vote for him over Santorum b/c
1) They agree with him on the issues more and
2) Rendell's turnout machine, most people who vote for Rendell will vote for Casey.
3) They just plain don't like (actually, hate is a better word) Santorum.
Its lip service for the DNC. Only one PA politician has said more negative things about Bob Casey Jr. then Rick Santorum, and that guy is Ed Rendell. Rendell has called Casey "a cheap hack", "lazy", "a liar", "a guy who rides on his father's coattails", "an unremarkable man"... and that is just a few of them.
Moreover, when asked what he thought of this race, just one month ago, Rendell said "I can't go against Senator Santorum. He has always delivered for Pennsylvanians." Then went on to talk about Northeast Flood relief that Santorum provided, which was a clear attempt to undermine Casey in his home region.
Hmmm.....maybe he said negative things about Casey b/c he was locked in a gubernatorial primary with him, ya think Soulty? Welcome to politics - pols don't always mean what they say. You're ignoring the fact he donated $$$$$ to Casey and not Santorum. Rendell dosen't owe the DNC anything and this is his last race - he wouldn't have donated money if he didn't want Casey to win.
Guess what Rendell did right after he said all those things about Santorum Soulty??? Oh....that's right...he appeared in a Casey ad and called Rick Santorum's lying attack ads "trash" and he did so in very forcefuil manner. TRASH. Wow, sure sounds like he is taking Santorum's side to me......
I also seem to rememeber Rendell at a Casey rally recently where he verbally stated that it was time to dump Santorum for Casey. Again, the facts do not support your argument.
And Santorum has a very solid core of supporters who will not need to be proded into voting for him. And once they have, they are going to go into HQ's all over the state and make calls getting others out to the polls. Any given night, we have close to a dozen people up at HQ making calls, and we are only getting more. That is compared to 2 people at the local Democrat HQ. Ours is open until 9PM. Theres is open until 6PM. This is the same story everywhere.
People might have been trained to hate Santorum, but hate is not sufficient to win an election when it is matched against a solid group of people who support the object of the hatred, and that has been proven time and again.
Moreover, Democrat support is ALWAYS overestimated before election day, because alot of the people who really hate the Republicans don't seem to understand that their ballot doesn't just come in the mail like their government "pay check"... they acctually have to get up off their worthless asses to vote.
You ignore the flip side to your argument. Santorum also has a LARGER core group of detractors who will also not need to be prodded into voting AGAISNT him. Very convenient how leave out that little inconvenient truth. Santorum is a truly despised man and deservedly so. People will flock to the polls simply to vote against him. Anyone with half a brain realizes what a polarizing figure he is and how many people truly cannot wait to vote against him and how they outnumber his supporters, as the polls have consistently proven for over the last year now.
Wow, all of that phonebanking sure hasn't done a lot of good in the polls. Am I supposed to be impressed that your offices are open later? Trust me, I'm not gonna lose too much sleep over one person's baseless opinion on the state of affairs on the PA Senate race that ignores every piece of real polling and evidence on the race.
