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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 817616 times)
Demrepdan
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« Reply #100 on: December 05, 2003, 06:42:03 pm »

Kerry will Lose in NH & Gepthart will lose in Iowa
Dean will win & Be the Nommie & Lose to Bush
49 to 41
Shut up! You always say Dean will win. And you give nothing to back it up. If you're going to say Dean will win, thats fine. But I notice you spread this in all the threads, as if Dean is already nominated. Explain yourself, and I won't be so mean.
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Nym90
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« Reply #101 on: December 06, 2003, 04:02:53 am »

I've heard the poll in SC that had Sharpton in 2nd place, though, had a very high percentage of blacks polled. I didn't hear how high but I know I've heard experts say that they feel that black turnout was overestimated in that poll, and that others had Sharpton significantly lower.
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John
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« Reply #102 on: December 06, 2003, 01:25:22 pm »

Let the People Chose who they want in the White House in November 4 2004 i want Bush but if dose win thats fine too
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Demrepdan
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« Reply #103 on: December 06, 2003, 02:07:56 pm »

Let the People Chose who they want in the White House in November 4 2004 i want Bush but if dose win thats fine too
You seem very ambivalent. If you want Bush to win, you should definitely care if he loses. However, with ambivalence comes acceptance. You're willing to accept whatever happens, and that’s good.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #104 on: December 07, 2003, 12:41:55 pm »

Kerry will Lose in NH & Gepthart will lose in Iowa
Dean will win & Be the Nommie & Lose to Bush
49 to 41
Shut up! You always say Dean will win. And you give nothing to back it up. If you're going to say Dean will win, thats fine. But I notice you spread this in all the threads, as if Dean is already nominated. Explain yourself, and I won't be so mean.

Dean has the support of major unions and the ultra left.  The will help him win the nom.
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agcatter
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« Reply #105 on: December 07, 2003, 06:26:58 pm »

Dean will win the nomination and go down in November something like 54 - 46.  Pretty substantial win considering we are a 50 - 50 nation.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #106 on: December 08, 2003, 10:38:22 am »

I'd say I've seen analysists predict the black turnout in SC could be as high as 49%


I've heard the poll in SC that had Sharpton in 2nd place, though, had a very high percentage of blacks polled. I didn't hear how high but I know I've heard experts say that they feel that black turnout was overestimated in that poll, and that others had Sharpton significantly lower.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #107 on: December 08, 2003, 11:34:40 am »

I'd say I've seen analysists predict the black turnout in SC could be as high as 49%


I've heard the poll in SC that had Sharpton in 2nd place, though, had a very high percentage of blacks polled. I didn't hear how high but I know I've heard experts say that they feel that black turnout was overestimated in that poll, and that others had Sharpton significantly lower.

Biggest Dem voting block in SC.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #108 on: December 08, 2003, 09:05:04 pm »

There is a new "deluxe" version of the electoral college calculator in the 2004 section.  This includes a dynamic bar graph and a map generator. As I mention in the Weblog entry, the state-polygons are currently quite rough and will be refined in due time.
Enjoy,
Dave
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Demrepdan
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« Reply #109 on: December 08, 2003, 09:13:44 pm »

I applaud your Deluxe Version of the Electoral Vote calculator, Dave. But, it’s weird how the states of Michigan, Hawaii, and Alaska are so....”abstract”. lol Wink
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #110 on: December 12, 2003, 10:19:00 pm »

Update Forum Predicitons:
We now have a total of 68 2004 Predicitions and  the average is 270 for Bush and 268 for the Dem.  This shows a *tightening* of the race since Dec 1 when the average prediction was 282 for Bush.  However, the average masks a continuing divergence of predicitons, with a range from Bush 459 to Bush only 137.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #111 on: December 12, 2003, 11:10:04 pm »

I'll throw in a prediction of my own.  This one is for a race between Bush and Dean.  I think that Bush will manage to retain every state that he won in 2000.  In, addition, he will pick up Minnisota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Oregon, Maine and perhapesd Washinton and Michigan.  My feeling is that even with Arnold, there won't be a Republican gain in California.  However, Arnold's presence and stumping for Bush will, I predict cause a rise in Bush's numbers in that, state, at least for a while, causing the Democrats to spend money their and considering thier already streached resources after a hard fought primary, that's something that will become a nessesary evil for them (if you recall, Gore didn't spend a dime in California in 2000).  So Bush will be able to pick up several states that he lost in 2000, even against a Dick Gephart or Joe Liebermann, let alone Howard Dean.

Bush won't carry California, but in the end, it will make a big difference in the election.
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Cairo_East
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« Reply #112 on: December 13, 2003, 05:41:04 pm »

IMO, all but 12 states are tossup at this stage.  There is just too much that can happen in 11 months.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #113 on: December 13, 2003, 07:48:23 pm »

IMO, all but 12 states are tossup at this stage.  There is just too much that can happen in 11 months.

Maybe ten are toossups.
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© tweed
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« Reply #114 on: December 13, 2003, 08:11:10 pm »
« Edited: December 13, 2003, 08:15:30 pm by Miamiu1027 »

Lets see:

Arizona, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, New Mexico,, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania,
Tennessee, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin could go either way in 2004.  27 states.

Bush best case scenario: 512-26 win
Dean best case scenario: 368-170 win

So there.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #115 on: December 13, 2003, 11:03:03 pm »

encouraging to see wide poll with Bush ahead in NH.  Not all defining this early, but with Dean close by state wise and him leading by big numbers there and Dems pounding the airwaves all year, nice to see BUSH still way ahead.

I eventually think NH will come off the tossup board and go for GOP as NH is so anti-tax and won't stomach Dean's tax proposals.
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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #116 on: December 14, 2003, 02:02:09 am »

Greetings from the Empire State:

Well, things are heating up in this presidential campaign, and Gore endorsing Dean puts him in a very good position.  But its still early and anything could happen.   Some of my political friends think that with this endorsement, Dean may clinch the nomination, however I think they maybe jumping the gun a little.  

Personally, I am excited about the possibility of a Dean - Clark ticket, or vice versa.  If these two are on the same ticket then the Dems have the best shot at winning the White House.  The Dems still need to realize that they need Southern Electoral Votes in order to win the election.    

See you all later.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #117 on: December 14, 2003, 05:48:33 am »

Dean is reported to be obsessed with the South
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #118 on: December 14, 2003, 09:14:25 am »

Dean is reported to be obsessed with the South

Let him be.  He is not going to win it.
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Beet
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« Reply #119 on: December 14, 2003, 08:05:00 pm »

He should really concentrate on holding onto the Gore states. But by reaching out to the South, although he won't win it, he may just make himself moderate enough to win votes in the battleground states in the Midwest and West.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #120 on: December 14, 2003, 08:35:08 pm »

He should really concentrate on holding onto the Gore states. But by reaching out to the South, although he won't win it, he may just make himself moderate enough to win votes in the battleground states in the Midwest and West.

By reaching into the unwinable for Dean he open himself to loose the close Gore states or more.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #121 on: December 14, 2003, 11:28:39 pm »

Bring on DEAn, esp after today!  

That is if the Dems don't dump him now too.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #122 on: December 15, 2003, 09:16:04 am »

Bring on DEAn, esp after today!  

That is if the Dems don't dump him now too.

They  won't dump him they love him.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #123 on: December 15, 2003, 04:35:14 pm »

Yep but so do we Smiley; just different reasons.

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DarthKosh
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« Reply #124 on: December 15, 2003, 05:04:47 pm »

Yep but so do we Smiley; just different reasons.



True.
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