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genec
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« Reply #1000 on: February 12, 2004, 03:54:00 pm »

Dean won't ever drop out...I think he will stay in the race and try to be drafted at the convention.

At the risk of violating profanity rules of this site, Dean really has shown what a jerk he is by reneging on his promise to withdraw from the race if he didn't win in Wisconsin.  Now who would want a president who acts like that?????
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genec
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« Reply #1001 on: February 12, 2004, 03:57:21 pm »

Dean won't ever drop out...I think he will stay in the race and try to be drafted at the convention.

At the risk of violating profanity rules of this site, Dean has really shown what a jerk he is by reneging on his promise to drop out of the race if he didn't win in Wisconsin.  Now who would want a president who acts like that?Huh??
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1002 on: February 12, 2004, 03:58:00 pm »

Dean won't ever drop out...I think he will stay in the race and try to be drafted at the convention.

At the risk of violating profanity rules of this site, Dean really has shown what a jerk he is by reneging on his promise to withdraw from the race if he didn't win in Wisconsin.  Now who would want a president who acts like that?Huh?

Don't worry, there are no rules, lol... Wink We've seen worse than the word "jerk", I can assure you of that. Smiley
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1003 on: February 12, 2004, 03:58:39 pm »

Dean won't ever drop out...I think he will stay in the race and try to be drafted at the convention.

At the risk of violating profanity rules of this site, Dean really has shown what a jerk he is by reneging on his promise to withdraw from the race if he didn't win in Wisconsin.  Now who would want a president who acts like that?Huh?

Don't worry, there are no rules, lol... Wink We've seen worse than the word "jerk", I can assure you of that. Smiley

Hm...i forgot to say welcome to the forum....Welcome to the forum! Smiley
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genec
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« Reply #1004 on: February 12, 2004, 04:11:02 pm »

Thanks!
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California Dreamer
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« Reply #1005 on: February 12, 2004, 08:46:13 pm »

Dean has thw second most delegates, somehow.

Dean's second place showing in delegates is mostly due to 'superdelegates' (party leaders and elected officials) who can change their mind. Most of them jumped on the Dean bandwagon before Iowa. In fact Tom Harkin (Iowa Senator who was standing behind Dean as he imploded during the 'I have a Scream' speach in Iowa) is reportedly thinking of pulling his support.

It is highly likely that Edwards will surpass him by Super Tuesday even if his super deleagates dont abandon him by then.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1006 on: February 13, 2004, 03:17:23 pm »

Reasons why Kerry will win Ohio:

1. Many-a-job lost in OH since Bush took office
2. Governor Taft's unpopularity
3. High Muslim population

I don't feel like retyping, so I'll just copy and paste what I said earlier....

The only place where there is a significant Muslim population in Ohio is Cinncinati and that is a BLACK Muslim population.  They wouldn't vote for Bush anyway.  Gov. Taft is unpopular because he RAISED taxes, I don't see how that plays well for the Democrats seeing as the Republican legislature is the group that is most pissed-off by Taft's actions.

Second, I can't believe that you guys acctually think Bush is so aweful that he will harass muslim voters or fake Bin Laden's capture.  That's not a joke, those are some serious accusations.
1. Provide a census result showing that a large portion o Ohio's muslim population voted for Gore.

2. Opebo, a Republican, suggested Bush might fake UBL's captured, and I agreed, he might.

Obebo is a nazi and he probably think it was a good move, my issue is with you and how a rational person could think such a thing.  Let me find some data for the first.

Ok.. I guess I should respond to this.  I am, as others have said in this thread, rather cynical and do believe in 'realpolitic', etc.  But I think its a bit much to call me a Nazi!  I think there's a big difference in being a bit Nixonian (and an admirer of Kissinger) and being a Nazi.  
Seriously though I never thought Bush would really fake bin laden's capture, I was just hypothesizing.  But I think the reason it would never happen is more because it wouldn't work than because its 'wrong'.

What you're missing here is that THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE has called you a Nazi. The LEAST you can do to protest is adopt a red avatar...

Good to see you engaging in this despite the fact that you're not allowed to vote! Smiley

I didn't tell him to change his voting behaviour...

lol, no, but it was the clear implication of your post... Smiley
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afleitch
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« Reply #1007 on: February 15, 2004, 03:20:39 pm »

I've noticed that since the start of 'Kerrymania' the prediction page has seen more confident Democratic wins, and even the Republican wins have been scaled down. I hope I don't have to eat my hat, but those 'Bush wins everything but Vermont' predictions from before the new year seem pretty ridiculous now! My own predictions are biased i'll admit. Oh and hows about a 'final prediction' topic come November where the most accurate gets a free pat on the back! Come to mention it, did anyone here predict 2000 pretty much spot on? Right down to EV's? Raise your hands now. It would be nice to hear from you!
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opebo
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« Reply #1008 on: February 16, 2004, 05:36:04 am »

I've noticed that since the start of 'Kerrymania' the prediction page has seen more confident Democratic wins, and even the Republican wins have been scaled down. I hope I don't have to eat my hat, but those 'Bush wins everything but Vermont' predictions from before the new year seem pretty ridiculous now! My own predictions are biased i'll admit. Oh and hows about a 'final prediction' topic come November where the most accurate gets a free pat on the back! Come to mention it, did anyone here predict 2000 pretty much spot on? Right down to EV's? Raise your hands now. It would be nice to hear from you!

I think people have swung way too far in the direction of Democratic overconfidence now.  The reality is it will be close and that the electoral college favors Bush.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1009 on: February 16, 2004, 08:02:52 am »

Prediction Map UPDATED:



Confidence map UPDATED:



I switched Ohio, Oregon, and Wisconsin into the Kerry column, but Bush still wins by the razor-thin 270-268 margin.  The confidence map totals have Bush with 221, Kerry with 200, and 117 are tossups.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #1010 on: February 16, 2004, 10:04:16 am »

Why are New Mexico, Nevada & Missouri so solidly republican, miami?  I'm also surprised you still have  Iowa, WV & NH in the republican camp.  Do you really think the dems can win Arkansas (I know you've got Bush winning, but you have it as a tossup)?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1011 on: February 16, 2004, 10:08:23 am »

Why are New Mexico, Nevada & Missouri so solidly republican, miami?  I'm also surprised you still have  Iowa, WV & NH in the republican camp.  Do you really think the dems can win Arkansas (I know you've got Bush winning, but you have it as a tossup)?
Lots of questions Smiley

New Mexico only went for us by a few hundred votes, and Nevada we lost by 4% (if I recall correctly.)  I think bush's share of the hispanic vote will increase, hence Bush winning those states.  Nevada could be close because of Yucca Mountain.

The only way Kerry could win Missouri is if he pciked Gephardt, and even then, Bush would still have the edge.

Arkansas is a southern state, I can't see Kerry winning anywhere in the south otherthan FL and AR.  Clark could push this state to Kerry.

NH is a socially conservative state, and unemployment there is only 4%, so I think bush has the definite edge there.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #1012 on: February 16, 2004, 10:14:46 am »

Oh yeah, you just have WV in the republican camp to avoid jinxing victory, right?  I'm still in doubt on Ohio, by the way.  I do think that NH is socially fairly liberal and that Bush has less claim to the "compassionate conservative" tag he ran on last time.  Plus, Kerry being close by should help in NH despite the rivalry with Massachusetts, no?

Don't forget the Nader factor either.  Arguably, without Nader, Gore could have carried Iowa, NM easier and arguably could have carried NH.  

My point on Arkansas was that it was more solidly Bush than you had it, but maybe I'm wrong.  I also see it as pretty similar to Louisiana, which was not a blowout in 2000, as I recall.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1013 on: February 16, 2004, 10:20:52 am »

Yep, WV is for Bush so Kerry doesn't win.

I think with high unEmp rates, a high muslim population, and an unpopular Republican Governor, Ohio will swing to Kerry.

Kerry being from MA hurts him in NH, if anything.

LA is more socially conservative than AR.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1014 on: February 16, 2004, 10:23:00 am »

Yep, WV is for Bush so Kerry doesn't win.

I think with high unEmp rates, a high muslim population, and an unpopular Republican Governor, Ohio will swing to Kerry.

Kerry being from MA hurts him in NH, if anything.

LA is more socially conservative than AR.

Neither LA or AR were blow-outs in 2000, the conservatism, or at least the Republicanism of the South is exaggerated. Not to say that Kerry will win any southern states though... Sad
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1015 on: February 16, 2004, 10:25:50 am »

Kerry will get his skinny ass handed to him in the south, minus FL and maybe AR.  No margin of error in the battlegrounds.

Of course, if Roy Moore runs, that's a different story.
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opebo
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« Reply #1016 on: February 16, 2004, 12:29:53 pm »

Yep, WV is for Bush so Kerry doesn't win.

I think with high unEmp rates, a high muslim population, and an unpopular Republican Governor, Ohio will swing to Kerry.

Kerry being from MA hurts him in NH, if anything.

LA is more socially conservative than AR.

Cool map Miami, I agree with it except I think Bush will get Ohio.  He has a chance at MN and WI too but mainly I would make the case for OH - muslims are not a significant voting population, and unemployment will be coming down.  Its only high in the 'Democrat' areas of the state anyway - central and southwestern OH is doing great.  The state is also very socially conservative - the gay marriage issue alone will ensure Bush wins it.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #1017 on: February 16, 2004, 02:08:18 pm »

Plus Taft is unpopular for RAISING TAXES.  Bush is again today campaigning how Dems ( like Kerry ) want to Raise taxes and not make tax cuts permanent.  If you let the tax cuts runout they will go UP!

Plus as I mentioned OH just became the 37th state to pass right to carry gun laws, again Kerry is ont he wrong side of this issue too.

Voinivich will win easily, plus I see 12-6 GOP lead in congressional seats there, so predominately a GOP leaning state.

Yep, WV is for Bush so Kerry doesn't win.

I think with high unEmp rates, a high muslim population, and an unpopular Republican Governor, Ohio will swing to Kerry.

Kerry being from MA hurts him in NH, if anything.

LA is more socially conservative than AR.

Cool map Miami, I agree with it except I think Bush will get Ohio.  He has a chance at MN and WI too but mainly I would make the case for OH - muslims are not a significant voting population, and unemployment will be coming down.  Its only high in the 'Democrat' areas of the state anyway - central and southwestern OH is doing great.  The state is also very socially conservative - the gay marriage issue alone will ensure Bush wins it.
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John
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« Reply #1018 on: February 16, 2004, 02:21:21 pm »

Here are my
Bush wins 32 States Picks up Iowa Minnestoa And Califrona & the rest goes to kerry
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #1019 on: February 16, 2004, 05:18:41 pm »

I've noticed that since the start of 'Kerrymania' the prediction page has seen more confident Democratic wins, and even the Republican wins have been scaled down. I hope I don't have to eat my hat, but those 'Bush wins everything but Vermont' predictions from before the new year seem pretty ridiculous now! My own predictions are biased i'll admit. Oh and hows about a 'final prediction' topic come November where the most accurate gets a free pat on the back! Come to mention it, did anyone here predict 2000 pretty much spot on? Right down to EV's? Raise your hands now. It would be nice to hear from you!

It would be silly to think that Kerry isn't as much of a loser as Dean would have been. I trimmed 3 points off Bush's popular vote total and gave back WA, WI, MI, and ME.  Boo for Kerry...
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Ben.
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« Reply #1020 on: February 17, 2004, 06:37:00 am »

Had Dean been the nominee… he would have had a similar problem to that which McGovern had he would have had a large part of the Party opposed to his candidacy even when he became the Democrat nominee…I would say that in terms of the Popular vote Dean could have cleared the 40% mark however much beyond that would have been unlikely, so around 42-43% Dean…his performance is only better than Mondale’s in 1984 because of the much more polarised political environment and the fact that the Democrats are now completely locked out of Government for the first time since the 1950’s…

With Kerry you have a good campaigner who has proven himself in his 1996 campaign (where he defeated the “folksy” and “down to earth” governor weld) and in this primary season to be very tenacious and hard working. He has the full backing of the Democratic Party and has gained high voter turnouts across the country which would seem to bode well for him. So what could happen in the “swing states” with Kerry…

Washington: The large Nader vote largely accounts for the closeness of the race here in 2000, this time around a high turn out in Seattle and the other metropolitan coastal towns will mean that this state will be solidly for Kerry.

Oregon: Again the Green vote will be for Kerry here and it should be less close than in 2000 however Bush could pull off an upset though I doubt it.

New Mexico: More marginal than Florida in 2000 and Bush’s attempts to woo Hispanic voters might pay off here…however Gov Richardson could also boost the Dem’s chances… but defiantly a very close contest and with Bush probably having the edge this time around…

Nevada; Last time Bush won by about 4%... traditionally a socially conservative state however the growing Democrat leaning population in Vegas as well as the Yucca Mountain issue will make the race close as recent polls have suggested…But as with NM Bush has the edge…

Missouri: Closes yet not too close a win for Bush in 2000… 50.4% to Gore’s 47.1% while Nader garnered 1.6%... the male catholic vote (which Bush won last time) I would argue will go for Kerry this time and this could deliver Missouri , the successes of Gov  Holden may also be a boost for Kerry, but then again it could simply act as a boost for any incumbent to helping both Bush and Holden…it really depends on who voters here attribute the economic recovery in the state to… I get a sense that Holden will get he credit…but then again I’m biased…

Iowa: A painfully close race here in 2000…however Nader got 2.2% and you can add about 2/3rds of that to the Dem total so a Kerry edge in Iowa…However a large number of GOP congressmen and rural support for Bush will make the race competitive…

Minnesota: A very strong Green vote here last time 5.2% while Gore beat Bush by 2 points… on the basis of that I would say a solid Dem edge in a close race…however the GOP gains in the state in 2002 could help Bush however an evenly divided congressional delegation and the strong Green vote from 2000 (as well as the strong independent showing in the race for Governor) which will probably go to the Democrats should mean that Kerry holds his edge here…but as with Iowa a close contest but a stronger Democratic edge than in Iowa…

Wisconsin: As with the other Midwestern states in 2000 a very close race characterised by a strong Green vote…Unlike Minnisota or Iowa the Dems here are very strong, dominating the Congressional delegation and holding both the senate seats as well as the Governors mansion…Despite the closeness of the 2000 race WI will be more solidly Dem this time around I would argue that the formally green vote along with those voters who voted for Bush as a moderate candidate in 2000 will give Kerry a 4-6% win here…however it will remain a highly competitive race…

Michigan: A solidly Dem state in 2000 an evenly divided congressional delegation with the republicans holding the edge while both Senators are Dems as is the governor… with some bluecollar dissatisfaction with Bush as well as the green voters from 2000 turning to the Dems making Michigan highly likely to remain comfortably Democratic in 2004…

Ohio: Much closer in 2000 than was expected considering how little attention was given it by the Gore campaign…The steel tariffs issue will help then Dems here and winning over male bluecollar voters will also be important for any Dem candidate who hopes to win the state and Kerry’s vet record should help with this however his social liberalism will be a big disadvantage here in a fairly socially conservative state however I would imagine that it will be close and unlike in 2000 will be one of the most hotly contested states in November…

West Virginia: Many have said that it was a surprise that this state was a surprise in 2000… I don’t get that…it’s a socially conservative state with a hankering for economic populism and pork barrel populism, witness Robert Byrd … in 2004 the Democrats will have the disadvantage of a socially liberal candidate and an outgoing governor overshadowed by scandal however the steel tariff issue will mean that this state is still very much in contention and added to this Edward’s neo-populism and guarded support for protectionism might play extremely well with Wes Virginian voters…

Pennsylvania: A surprisingly solid win for Gore in 2000 by 4% over Bush while Nader won 2%... Rendell’s election in 2002 is another boost for the Democrats while the repeal of the steel tariffs will assist in boosting the Democratic vote in the west of the state and the Pittsburgh area, while the same issues that effected the philly mayoral race will help GOTV in the east of the state as will Rendell who is a proven and effective campaigner…Bush’s only hope for a win in PA will be fore low turnouts in the west and east and a very high turnout in the “Z” (or “T” if you like) with Dean as the nominee he had a very good shot at having a low Dem vote in the west of the state and a strong socially conservative vote in the “Z” however while the Socially Conservative vote will still turnout for Bush it will probably be heavily outweighed by the Democratic vote in the west and east of the state…an outside shot for Bush but in my view unlike unless your looking at a very solid almost landslide Bush win…

Florida: Jeb’s solid win in 2000 and the increase in Republican voter registration would suggest that Florida will very probably go to Bush in 2004…a modest increase in the Jewish vote as well as energised republican voters should give the President a solid win here…however where the conservative vote to show a low turnout for Bush (very unlikely) Kerry might be in with a chance so long as the liberal voters in the south as well as the black population turn out in strong numbers… a possibility but very unlikely…

New Hampshire: Nader voters would have given the state to Gore in 2000 and Kerry’s New England roots should help…the very high turnout for the Democratic primary this year would suggest a highly energised Democratic vote and an appeal to independents in the state…a good chance that Kerry could pick up the state this November…However if Bush can appeal to the libertarian inclinations of NH voters (unlikely if you look at his record) particularly in the north of the state he might hold the state however I think that it would be a good bet to say that Kerry will pick the state up…but a highly competitive state with many factors favouring Kerry over Bush…

That’s all Ive got time for at moment… Any thoughts?              
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1021 on: February 17, 2004, 07:38:24 am »

You sure make long posts, Ben! Smiley

I think your reasoning is fairly sound, sounds good to me overall. If I get this right you're saying, with reservations for unforeseen factors, etc, that Kerry will hol onto all Gore states except New Mexico and, possibly Iowa, while gaining New Hampshire and Ohio, making Kerry win 272-266.

I agree with your general analyses, I think Ohio will be he key state, it's voted for the winner almost every time during American history, with the most recent misses being Nixon in 1960 and Dewey in the 40s.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1022 on: February 17, 2004, 08:05:59 am »

I've looked into the 2000 result in WV and have found something very interesting:

Although turnout amoung registered voters rose slightly, the turnout in the heavily Democrat south fell sharply.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1023 on: February 17, 2004, 09:07:25 am »

I've looked into the 2000 result in WV and have found something very interesting:

Although turnout amoung registered voters rose slightly, the turnout in the heavily Democrat south fell sharply.
Well Al, take a 3-month vacation to WV in Auguest, september, and October, incouraging the Dems in the southern portion of the state to vote.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1024 on: February 17, 2004, 09:19:16 am »

Bush won WV by 40,000 votes (rounded to the nearest thousand), so a swing of 20,000 results in the Democrats winning WV.
Bush's support will have fallen a lot in the Northern Panhandle (the area around Wheeling), lets say that there is a swing of 3000 votes (a conservative estimate) towards Kerry.
As he is a Catholic make that 5000.

Lets assume that Bush loses 5000 votes across the rest of the state (another conservative estimate and assumes that Bush loses no votes around Charleston, which is unlikely).
That leaves Bush with a lead of 10,000.

I think that the Rahall machine can get an extra 10,000 votes in the Coal Distrist if they work hard at it (and Mollohan should be able to wring out at least another 1000 in the 1st district.
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