2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Agreed.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cskendrick... opebo is the most consistantly ammoral person on this site.
He likes gerrymandering and low turnouts, and also thinks that Dubya should fake Bin Laden's capture to get re-elected...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

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True
After all, the states that Dubya's economic [mis]managment have hit hardest have a tendency to be small...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm NOT talking about GDP growth etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hah! A textile worker who loses his job and gets one at Walmart isn't going to be happy about it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's not just about the money... you seem to lack a basic understanding of people sometimes...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I was using textile workers as an example (and in 2000 a lot did vote GOP. Not this year methinks).
Point is a lot of people are worse off than they were 4 years ago and most of these people are pretty pissed off with Dubya.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Two excellent posts Cskendrick!
Not much for me to add... except this: the most recent "matchup" poll for SC I could find (done last autumn) had Bush below the National average.
Food for thought.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yes, VORLON, excellent information on polls.  Can you share any websites where one can find these polls?

Three sites that list a lot of polls..

From waaaaaaay to the left...

http://prorev.com/amline.htm

From waaaaaaay to the right...

www.realclearpolitics.com

Just the numbers...

www.pollingreport.com

Also:
www.dcpoliticalreport.com

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Here we go :

Not bad... but Alabama and Arkansas will not go for Bush with over 60%, and I doubt that Mississippi will either.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good points Firefly

Whenever the Right promise Tax Cuts they mean big tax cuts for the rich... and maybe a very small one for normal people.
This is morally wrong.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Good points Firefly

Whenever the Right promise Tax Cuts they mean big tax cuts for the rich... and maybe a very small one for normal people.
This is morally wrong.

The following is the actual distribution of who pays what it terms of taxes:

Percentage of Total Federal & Estate Taxes paid by Income Quintile      
Congressional Budget Office - 2002 Taxation Year   
   
Top 10%       69%
9th Quintile      14%
8th Quintile      8%
7th Quintile      6%
6th Quintile      4%
5th Quintile      3%
4th Quintile      1%
3rd Quintile      -0.6%
2nd Quintile      -1.7%
Bottom 10%      -2.4%

Negative numbers indicate a net refund, where variouis credits refunded exceed that amount of tax actually paid.

You seem to feel the current distribution to be unfair.

Please provide the taxation distrubution that you believe would be fair.

For example, the top 10% currently pay 69% of the nations tax burden - what do you believe would be a "fair" number?

The bottom 50% of the population pays about 4% of the tax burden - what % would you feel would be appropriate?

This is a serious question - not rhetorical - I would honestly like your answer...

The rich should pay more (as should Big Business). Normal people should pays less.
The rich should NOT be given another tax cut.
Considering that the top 10% in America own most things, 69% seems far too low.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My current prediction:



A bit heretical I suppose... but I like thinking for myself...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

hold both candidates in near equal comtempt...

Reminds me of McKay in Porridge...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[url]www.dcpoliticalreport.com[/i]

And several other sites

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sorry it's: www.dcpoliticalreport.com

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My new prediction:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gustaf... what you have to remember about Louisiana is that Gore did very badly in the Cajun area (which even Micheal Dukakis did well in).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

My new prediction:



My prediction is heretical in parts. This is intentional.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I know nothing about Delaware

I don't think that my map is favourable to either candidate... just less polarised and allowing for upsets.

I like thinking for myself...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The 2000 election is in the past... and besides not all leaners or tossups are equal.
Louisiana is a weaker lean than Georgia.
New Hampshire is more of a tossup than Maine.
And so on.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Realpolitik,

We aren't winning VA this time.  Hold off until 2008.

Depends who Kerry chooses as VP.
I've put it as a tossup anyhow.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Gore underperformed in Southern VA ("Southside")... a mix of his apparent stances on coal and tobacco.
If Kerry chooses a running mate who can appeal to these people he has a chance.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He also underperformed in CD's 4 and 5 (mind you so did Clinton).

VA is swinging towards the Dems anyway (thanks the expansion of the liberal suburbs)... and picking up more votes in the rest of the state can't hurt.

Still a tossup mind.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's the defintion of underperforming here? Doing worse than FDR or what?

He didn't do as well as he should have done