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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 810684 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1025 on: February 17, 2004, 09:48:38 am »

Don't jinx KErry!   He will LOSE!!!!
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #1026 on: February 17, 2004, 10:23:41 am »

I've looked into the 2000 result in WV and have found something very interesting:

Although turnout amoung registered voters rose slightly, the turnout in the heavily Democrat south fell sharply.

The main thing in these Southern states like WV is to look at the future of these states. The old Dems are passing on and being replaced by solidly Republican youth. 37% of 18-29 year-olds in WV went for Gore compared to 46% for their grandparents.  Each day, the state is less hospitable to Dem nominees.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #1027 on: February 17, 2004, 10:29:26 am »

Had Dean been the nominee… he would have had a similar problem to that which McGovern had he would have had a large part of the Party opposed to his candidacy even when he became the Democrat nominee…I would say that in terms of the Popular vote Dean could have cleared the 40% mark however much beyond that would have been unlikely, so around 42-43% Dean…his performance is only better than Mondale’s in 1984 because of the much more polarised political environment and the fact that the Democrats are now completely locked out of Government for the first time since the 1950’s…

With Kerry you have a good campaigner who has proven himself in his 1996 campaign (where he defeated the “folksy” and “down to earth” governor weld) and in this primary season to be very tenacious and hard working. He has the full backing of the Democratic Party and has gained high voter turnouts across the country which would seem to bode well for him. So what could happen in the “swing states” with Kerry…

Washington: The large Nader vote largely accounts for the closeness of the race here in 2000, this time around a high turn out in Seattle and the other metropolitan coastal towns will mean that this state will be solidly for Kerry.

Oregon: Again the Green vote will be for Kerry here and it should be less close than in 2000 however Bush could pull off an upset though I doubt it.

New Mexico: More marginal than Florida in 2000 and Bush’s attempts to woo Hispanic voters might pay off here…however Gov Richardson could also boost the Dem’s chances… but defiantly a very close contest and with Bush probably having the edge this time around…

Nevada; Last time Bush won by about 4%... traditionally a socially conservative state however the growing Democrat leaning population in Vegas as well as the Yucca Mountain issue will make the race close as recent polls have suggested…But as with NM Bush has the edge…

Missouri: Closes yet not too close a win for Bush in 2000… 50.4% to Gore’s 47.1% while Nader garnered 1.6%... the male catholic vote (which Bush won last time) I would argue will go for Kerry this time and this could deliver Missouri , the successes of Gov  Holden may also be a boost for Kerry, but then again it could simply act as a boost for any incumbent to helping both Bush and Holden…it really depends on who voters here attribute the economic recovery in the state to… I get a sense that Holden will get he credit…but then again I’m biased…

Iowa: A painfully close race here in 2000…however Nader got 2.2% and you can add about 2/3rds of that to the Dem total so a Kerry edge in Iowa…However a large number of GOP congressmen and rural support for Bush will make the race competitive…

Minnesota: A very strong Green vote here last time 5.2% while Gore beat Bush by 2 points… on the basis of that I would say a solid Dem edge in a close race…however the GOP gains in the state in 2002 could help Bush however an evenly divided congressional delegation and the strong Green vote from 2000 (as well as the strong independent showing in the race for Governor) which will probably go to the Democrats should mean that Kerry holds his edge here…but as with Iowa a close contest but a stronger Democratic edge than in Iowa…

Wisconsin: As with the other Midwestern states in 2000 a very close race characterised by a strong Green vote…Unlike Minnisota or Iowa the Dems here are very strong, dominating the Congressional delegation and holding both the senate seats as well as the Governors mansion…Despite the closeness of the 2000 race WI will be more solidly Dem this time around I would argue that the formally green vote along with those voters who voted for Bush as a moderate candidate in 2000 will give Kerry a 4-6% win here…however it will remain a highly competitive race…

Michigan: A solidly Dem state in 2000 an evenly divided congressional delegation with the republicans holding the edge while both Senators are Dems as is the governor… with some bluecollar dissatisfaction with Bush as well as the green voters from 2000 turning to the Dems making Michigan highly likely to remain comfortably Democratic in 2004…

Ohio: Much closer in 2000 than was expected considering how little attention was given it by the Gore campaign…The steel tariffs issue will help then Dems here and winning over male bluecollar voters will also be important for any Dem candidate who hopes to win the state and Kerry’s vet record should help with this however his social liberalism will be a big disadvantage here in a fairly socially conservative state however I would imagine that it will be close and unlike in 2000 will be one of the most hotly contested states in November…

West Virginia: Many have said that it was a surprise that this state was a surprise in 2000… I don’t get that…it’s a socially conservative state with a hankering for economic populism and pork barrel populism, witness Robert Byrd … in 2004 the Democrats will have the disadvantage of a socially liberal candidate and an outgoing governor overshadowed by scandal however the steel tariff issue will mean that this state is still very much in contention and added to this Edward’s neo-populism and guarded support for protectionism might play extremely well with Wes Virginian voters…

Pennsylvania: A surprisingly solid win for Gore in 2000 by 4% over Bush while Nader won 2%... Rendell’s election in 2002 is another boost for the Democrats while the repeal of the steel tariffs will assist in boosting the Democratic vote in the west of the state and the Pittsburgh area, while the same issues that effected the philly mayoral race will help GOTV in the east of the state as will Rendell who is a proven and effective campaigner…Bush’s only hope for a win in PA will be fore low turnouts in the west and east and a very high turnout in the “Z” (or “T” if you like) with Dean as the nominee he had a very good shot at having a low Dem vote in the west of the state and a strong socially conservative vote in the “Z” however while the Socially Conservative vote will still turnout for Bush it will probably be heavily outweighed by the Democratic vote in the west and east of the state…an outside shot for Bush but in my view unlike unless your looking at a very solid almost landslide Bush win…

Florida: Jeb’s solid win in 2000 and the increase in Republican voter registration would suggest that Florida will very probably go to Bush in 2004…a modest increase in the Jewish vote as well as energised republican voters should give the President a solid win here…however where the conservative vote to show a low turnout for Bush (very unlikely) Kerry might be in with a chance so long as the liberal voters in the south as well as the black population turn out in strong numbers… a possibility but very unlikely…

New Hampshire: Nader voters would have given the state to Gore in 2000 and Kerry’s New England roots should help…the very high turnout for the Democratic primary this year would suggest a highly energised Democratic vote and an appeal to independents in the state…a good chance that Kerry could pick up the state this November…However if Bush can appeal to the libertarian inclinations of NH voters (unlikely if you look at his record) particularly in the north of the state he might hold the state however I think that it would be a good bet to say that Kerry will pick the state up…but a highly competitive state with many factors favouring Kerry over Bush…

That’s all Ive got time for at moment… Any thoughts?              


I don't know that I would characterize Weld's political style as “folksy” and “down to earth”.  Successful Republicans in the Bay State come off as competent and sympathetic and harmless to rich people (who want to vote GOP, but are guilty about it or fear social extremism and vote Dem).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1028 on: February 17, 2004, 10:31:34 am »

Turnout is appalling for young people all over America, so how strong the GOP is amoung younger voters is usually exaggerated.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1029 on: February 17, 2004, 12:24:33 pm »

I updated my prediction again. I found "finely balanced" boring...Now Kerry wins 283-255, taking Ohio, WV and Nevada but losing Iowa.
I find it most strange that the average prediction is now 275-263 for the Dems, but the aggregate one is still 278-260 for Bush.

All these stats are very weird, sorry Dave, but I don't trust them one bit. Especially since the map with percentages hasn't changed ever, as far as I've been able to see... Wink
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #1030 on: February 17, 2004, 01:31:03 pm »

A whole lot of assuming going on there! Smiley

Coal district; 2 words-- energy Bill--lots of provisions there that will benefit WV.  Bush will sign it and if Dems block it again, Bush can still cam0aign that Dems are blocking it which they are!

Bush won WV by 40,000 votes (rounded to the nearest thousand), so a swing of 20,000 results in the Democrats winning WV.
Bush's support will have fallen a lot in the Northern Panhandle (the area around Wheeling), lets say that there is a swing of 3000 votes (a conservative estimate) towards Kerry.
As he is a Catholic make that 5000.

Lets assume that Bush loses 5000 votes across the rest of the state (another conservative estimate and assumes that Bush loses no votes around Charleston, which is unlikely).
That leaves Bush with a lead of 10,000.

I think that the Rahall machine can get an extra 10,000 votes in the Coal Distrist if they work hard at it (and Mollohan should be able to wring out at least another 1000 in the 1st district.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #1031 on: February 17, 2004, 01:32:05 pm »

No need to jinx him, Kerry WILL LOSE Smiley

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1032 on: February 17, 2004, 01:44:46 pm »

The day the Coal District is more Republican than the rest of WV is the day that Hell freezes over Wink

WV is the Dems most likely pickup this year (although I was being a tad optimistic with the Catholic thing).

You lot'll probably pick up New Mexico easily though...
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1033 on: February 17, 2004, 01:57:50 pm »

No need to jinx him, Kerry WILL LOSE Smiley

Thank you, you have now jinxed Bush.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1034 on: February 17, 2004, 02:19:22 pm »


Yay! Your clever plot to make JR jinx Bush worked, and the presidency is now secured for Kerry!! Smiley

Wait...did I jinx it back now? Sad
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1035 on: February 17, 2004, 02:22:19 pm »

Yes.  You jinxed it back.  You costJohn Kerry the presidency.

See!  I just unjinxed it.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1036 on: February 17, 2004, 02:26:16 pm »

Yes.  You jinxed it back.  You costJohn Kerry the presidency.

See!  I just unjinxed it.

Good! That means...no wait, I don't want to mess up again, I am gonna make sure John Kerry wins this by saying nothing...DAMN! Sad
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1037 on: February 17, 2004, 02:39:01 pm »

We need to talk Smiley
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #1038 on: February 17, 2004, 04:19:22 pm »


Politics needs its version of the Sports Illustrated jinx.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1039 on: February 17, 2004, 04:26:29 pm »


Politics needs its version of the Sports Illustrated jinx.
The Time Magazine Jinx.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #1040 on: February 17, 2004, 05:15:46 pm »



remember when I said befiore you guys needed to get out more? Smiley


Yes.  You jinxed it back.  You costJohn Kerry the presidency.

See!  I just unjinxed it.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1041 on: February 17, 2004, 05:19:33 pm »



remember when I said befiore you guys needed to get out more? Smiley


Yes.  You jinxed it back.  You costJohn Kerry the presidency.

See!  I just unjinxed it.
You post at other forums too and your only 1300 behind me, so don't give me that crap.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1042 on: February 17, 2004, 05:32:32 pm »



remember when I said befiore you guys needed to get out more? Smiley


Yes.  You jinxed it back.  You costJohn Kerry the presidency.

See!  I just unjinxed it.

I like politics, and this is the only internet forum I am a member of...
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1043 on: February 17, 2004, 05:33:14 pm »

this is the only internet forum I am a member of...
That isn't true.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1044 on: February 17, 2004, 05:33:46 pm »


No? Tell me which the other one is then.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1045 on: February 17, 2004, 05:34:34 pm »


No? Tell me which the other one is then.
http://rainman2242.proboards25.com
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1046 on: February 17, 2004, 05:39:29 pm »


Lol...I didn't think of that, sorry...I should have said the only one I post regularly at...I will get back to your forum, it's just that previously I was always the only one on whenever I logged on, so I got bored...
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1047 on: February 17, 2004, 05:40:41 pm »

Well, post in moderation to keep it running.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1048 on: February 17, 2004, 05:41:41 pm »

Well, post in moderation to keep it running.

I will, tomorrow, I have to go to bed soon, so I'll just finish off things here for tonight.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1049 on: February 17, 2004, 05:42:44 pm »

Well, post in moderation to keep it running.

I will, tomorrow, I have to go to bed soon, so I'll just finish off things here for tonight.
Okay, nighty-night.
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