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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 821289 times)
M
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« Reply #1050 on: February 17, 2004, 11:40:57 pm »

What about the curse of the Caytona 500?

John Kerry: "we don;t need a president who says, gentlemen, start your engines. We need a president who says, America, start your economy!"

Cute. But the last thing you do when Bush has an apealing photo op to a swing demographic, is ridicule the event itself. Kerry needs a veep that will make people forget he's there, or else he's doomed.

Or you could just nominate Edwards.
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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #1051 on: February 18, 2004, 12:43:39 am »
« Edited: February 18, 2004, 12:46:51 am by Saratoga2DM »

Hey All:

Looks like Kerry pulled off a squeaker in Wisconsin, and I think Edwards is becoming more of a threat with each passing day.  Howard Dean finished third and he is all but done, which is very disappointing.  But that's politics, and I guess it just wasn't his year.

After thinking it over I am going to shift my support to John Edwards.  I think the Dems have a better chance of beating Bush if he is the nominee.  Edwards has conservative leanings, but he is more of a populist now than he was before he went on the campaign trail.
His chances will also be much better if Clark is his running mate.  

Well thats that.  Sleep tight and keep watching the CNN.  




 



   
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opebo
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« Reply #1052 on: February 18, 2004, 12:55:14 am »

Hey All:

Looks like Kerry pulled off a squeaker in Wisconsin, and I think Edwards is becoming more of a threat with each passing day.  Howard Dean finished third and he is all but done, which is very disappointing.  But that's politics, and I guess it just wasn't his year.

After thinking it over I am going to shift my support to John Edwards.  I think the Dems have a better chance of beating Bush if he is the nominee.  Edwards has conservative leanings, but he is more of a populist now than he was before he went on the campaign trail.
His chances will also be much better if Clark is his running mate.  

Well thats that.  Sleep tight and keep watching the CNN.  
   

What conservative leanings does Edwards have?  The man's more of a socialist than Kerry.  

And no thanks on the CNN, I'll stick to FOX.
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M
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« Reply #1053 on: February 18, 2004, 12:58:01 am »

Good old Fox. When Tweedle beetles battle with paddles in a puddle in a bottle on a poodle eating noodles, then what is that called?
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GOPman
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« Reply #1054 on: February 18, 2004, 01:52:31 am »

What I find amuzing is the fact that the Dems REALLY want to nominate Howard Dean because he is what they really stand for. Up until the "I have a Scream" speech in Iowa, they were still behind him. They realized that the fringe of his speech was so commonplace, it would scare the commonman. So what happens next? They turn to the next best liberal, and go with Kerry who is more liberal than Tedward Kennedy. Kerry will now be the nominee, and when the news of his politics as Lt. Gov under Mike Dukakis come out, it will reinforce the fact that the Democratic Party is a party of leftys, who cannot appeal to the broad base of America.

Has anyone ever thought about the reason why the GOP has the larger support from individual donors, as opposed to the Big Corp./Union donations needed by the Dems? The GOP has a broader base, and it will be shown in the 2004 election when Bush wins...BIGTIME!
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opebo
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« Reply #1055 on: February 18, 2004, 02:07:10 am »

What I find amuzing is the fact that the Dems REALLY want to nominate Howard Dean because he is what they really stand for. Up until the "I have a Scream" speech in Iowa, they were still behind him. They realized that the fringe of his speech was so commonplace, it would scare the commonman. So what happens next? They turn to the next best liberal, and go with Kerry who is more liberal than Tedward Kennedy. Kerry will now be the nominee, and when the news of his politics as Lt. Gov under Mike Dukakis come out, it will reinforce the fact that the Democratic Party is a party of leftys, who cannot appeal to the broad base of America.

Has anyone ever thought about the reason why the GOP has the larger support from individual donors, as opposed to the Big Corp./Union donations needed by the Dems? The GOP has a broader base, and it will be shown in the 2004 election when Bush wins...BIGTIME!

Well we have a broader base among the upper-middle-class and the sort of 'just barely rich' class.  There are millions of old guys or their widows with a couple/few million $ in this country (mostly small businessmen), and I'd like to see a study on how many are GOP - probably nearly all.  Nothing like making your own money and noticing someone's trying to steal it from you to excite the political donation reflex.  These small businessmen and the 'young executive' corporate types are happy to cut checks for a couple thousand.  The main upper-middle class group that goes for Dems are lawyers.
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GOPman
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« Reply #1056 on: February 18, 2004, 02:23:35 am »

I agree wholeheartedly. How many polls do you see of those business people who want to be heard? You don't because they don't want people to see the regular class working guys in favorable light to the Republicans. People will see the President Bush's policies actually do work! How about that, a GOP Prez actually having good economic policy? How often do we see that on the news. When we have 7-8 percentage growth in a quarter, and get next to nothing in publicity, its obvious the news organizations are keeping it out of the airwaves. They have hit Bush on everything they can think of, and it just doenst work. This silly thing about his Air Guard Service will backfire, it keeps them worked up, but will tick off the common voter. They see Bush in a real USA Fighter Plane as a real USA Fighter Pilot! The dems may not want all those images after all.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1057 on: February 18, 2004, 04:35:04 am »

Edwards is a moderate on social issues, while being the most left wing candidate on economic issues.
This is often called "Populism".
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tweed
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« Reply #1058 on: February 18, 2004, 08:35:20 am »

What about the curse of the Caytona 500?

John Kerry: "we don;t need a president who says, gentlemen, start your engines. We need a president who says, America, start your economy!"

Cute. But the last thing you do when Bush has an apealing photo op to a swing demographic, is ridicule the event itself. Kerry needs a veep that will make people forget he's there, or else he's doomed.
He doesn't have a prayer at the south anyway.  Those fundamentalist NASCAR uneducated white men down there are stuck in the 14th century.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #1059 on: February 18, 2004, 10:54:37 am »

Don't you love people that don't agree with Dems are seen as uneducated.  NASCAR is growing and is popular otside of the south too.


What about the curse of the Caytona 500?

John Kerry: "we don;t need a president who says, gentlemen, start your engines. We need a president who says, America, start your economy!"

Cute. But the last thing you do when Bush has an apealing photo op to a swing demographic, is ridicule the event itself. Kerry needs a veep that will make people forget he's there, or else he's doomed.
He doesn't have a prayer at the south anyway.  Those fundamentalist NASCAR uneducated white men down there are stuck in the 14th century.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #1060 on: February 18, 2004, 11:07:22 am »

Anyone have that website where the states were shown with reapportionment and then colored by how they voted in the past 4 elections?

It had the campaign signs of each ticket and all.
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opebo
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« Reply #1061 on: February 18, 2004, 11:35:42 am »

Edwards is a moderate on social issues, while being the most left wing candidate on economic issues.
This is often called "Populism".

The worst of both worlds.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1062 on: February 18, 2004, 11:43:29 am »

Don't you love people that don't agree with Dems are seen as uneducated.  NASCAR is growing and is popular otside of the south too.
It is?
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #1063 on: February 18, 2004, 11:52:49 am »

oh yeah, lot sof people int he midwest I know , in IA, MN and SD, NE too love NASCAR, Oh add MO too.  


Don't you love people that don't agree with Dems are seen as uneducated.  NASCAR is growing and is popular otside of the south too.
It is?
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tweed
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« Reply #1064 on: February 18, 2004, 11:54:59 am »

NASCAR is a waste of gas.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1065 on: February 18, 2004, 12:20:03 pm »

I wouldn't worry about "NASCAR dads"... the last time a lot of them voted would have been for Wallace in '68...
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opebo
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« Reply #1066 on: February 18, 2004, 12:23:09 pm »

I wouldn't worry about "NASCAR dads"... the last time a lot of them voted would have been for Wallace in '68...

You're mocking precisely the kind of people who live in your adopted West Virginia.  But I suspect you know best for them.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1067 on: February 18, 2004, 12:39:20 pm »

Who said I was mocking anyone???
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #1068 on: February 18, 2004, 12:41:54 pm »

This poll is great news for Bush. He's basicly got his red states in the bag and is neck and neck overall in Gore states. Bush's overall deficit in Gore states was much worse than a point. In fact Gore won the presidency of Gore-merica, 53.73% vs. 41.79%, by nearly 12 points.  If this poll were to hold, Bush would be outperforming by 11 points. That would leave Kerry with only California, Illinois, Delaware, New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut, Hawaii, New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and District of Columbia because Bush would have made up his deficit in the other Gore states. Again, it's a match-up poll and so of dubious usefulness, but still, it's interesting, I think.  It also looks like Bush's best bet is to basicly say that the world is too dangerous to elect Kerry.



Bush Leads in Red States, Kerry Ahead in Blue States Voters Hardened on the Economy, War,  Gays Marriage

A new poll conducted by Zogby International for The O'Leary Report and Southern Methodist University's John Tower Center from February 12-15, 2004 of 1,209 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points found that if the election for president were held today, Democrat John Kerry would edge George W. Bush 46% to 45% in the "blue states" -- or states won by Al Gore in the 2000 election.  In the "red states,"-- or states won by George W. Bush in 2000, however, Bush wins handily by a 51% to 39% margin.

In terms of right direction/wrong direction, blue state voters felt the country was headed in the wrong direction by a 47% to 45% margin while red state voters felt the country was headed in the right direction by a 50% to 40% margin, according to an additional Zogby International/O' Leary Report/John Tower Center survey of Red States/Blue States conducted from February 12-15, 2004 of 532 likely Blue State voters and 543 likely Red State voters with a margin of error of + 4.3 percentage points found that.

Forty-seven percent of blue state voters rated Bush's job performance as good or excellent while 51% said the president's job performance was only fair or poor.  Fifty-five percent of red states, however, rated the president's performance as good or excellent while 45% had a fair or poor opinion of the President's job performance.

On the issue of a strong economy and low unemployment versus job creation, Blue State voters who feel a strong economy is a bigger priority than job creation by a 50% to 40% margin while Red State voters also agreed by a 48% to 40% margin a 49% to 40% margin.

A majority of voters in the survey also reject the filibuster strategy employed by Senate Democrats against some of President Bush's judicial nominees.  This is consistent with polling results under President Clinton when voters rejected Republican efforts to block judicial nominees. Fifty-three percent of Blue State and 59% of Red State voters felt the Democratic filibuster of judicial nominees was wrong while 35% of Blue State and 32% of Red State voters feel a minority of Senators are right to use whatever means to necessary to block the nominees.

While the issue of gay marriages dominates the news in San Francisco and Boston, a majority of Americans remain opposed to the idea. Fifty-two percent of Red State voters and 50% of Blue State voters support such a constitutional amendment while 43% of Red State voters and 44% of Blue State voters disagree.

Voters gave Bush a decided edge when asked who would do a better job of dealing with Al Qaeda, Saddam Hussein, Moammar Gaddafi, North Korea and Iran.  Bush was the clear choice among Red State voters (53%) and Blue State votes (47%).  Only 31% of Red State voters and 35% of Blue State voters felt Kerry would do a better job in dealing with rogue states and leaders.

Pollster John Zogby will be presenting these poll results at a meeting of the Wednesday Morning Club at the Beverly Hills Hotel at 1:00 p.m. on Wednesday, February 18, 2004.  There will be a press availability at 1:45 p.m. for Los Angeles press.
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opebo
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« Reply #1069 on: February 18, 2004, 12:48:21 pm »

Fascinating, NHpolitico - and this represents, given the date of the poll, a low point for Bush.  More likely to go up from here than down.  Still I think Kerry could campaign his way to more than 46% in Goremerica.  On the other hand he's unlikely to pick up anything Bush won in 2000.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #1070 on: February 18, 2004, 01:00:24 pm »

On the other hand he's unlikely to pick up anything Bush won in 2000.


Which sort of makes it hard to win the WH.

Smiley
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tweed
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« Reply #1071 on: February 18, 2004, 01:29:08 pm »

That makes the map look like this:



But, Polls have shown Kerru ahead in VT and WA, plus big leads for generic democrats in WI and MI, so the acuracy of the poll isn't all that great.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #1072 on: February 18, 2004, 01:32:12 pm »

Fascinating, NHpolitico - and this represents, given the date of the poll, a low point for Bush.  More likely to go up from here than down.  Still I think Kerry could campaign his way to more than 46% in Goremerica.  On the other hand he's unlikely to pick up anything Bush won in 2000.


And loose some states that Gore won.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1073 on: February 18, 2004, 01:37:05 pm »

I would trust a drunken farmer over a Zogby poll...
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #1074 on: February 18, 2004, 01:37:55 pm »

I would trust a drunken farmer over a Zogby poll...

That's who does his polling.
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