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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 798883 times)
opebo
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« Reply #1075 on: February 18, 2004, 01:40:06 pm »

I would trust a drunken farmer over a Zogby poll...

True, though most of the time his polls favor the Dem.
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tweed
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« Reply #1076 on: February 18, 2004, 01:40:38 pm »

Zogby's polls are usually inaccurate, and they lean left.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1077 on: February 18, 2004, 01:52:56 pm »

What I find amuzing is the fact that the Dems REALLY want to nominate Howard Dean because he is what they really stand for. Up until the "I have a Scream" speech in Iowa, they were still behind him. They realized that the fringe of his speech was so commonplace, it would scare the commonman. So what happens next? They turn to the next best liberal, and go with Kerry who is more liberal than Tedward Kennedy. Kerry will now be the nominee, and when the news of his politics as Lt. Gov under Mike Dukakis come out, it will reinforce the fact that the Democratic Party is a party of leftys, who cannot appeal to the broad base of America.

Has anyone ever thought about the reason why the GOP has the larger support from individual donors, as opposed to the Big Corp./Union donations needed by the Dems? The GOP has a broader base, and it will be shown in the 2004 election when Bush wins...BIGTIME!

Dean lost Iowa by a huge margin before he held his CONCESSION speech.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1078 on: February 18, 2004, 02:20:37 pm »

I would trust a drunken farmer over a Zogby poll...

That's who does his polling.

That wouldn't suprise me at all...
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #1079 on: February 18, 2004, 03:01:54 pm »

That makes the map look like this:



But, Polls have shown Kerru ahead in VT and WA, plus big leads for generic democrats in WI and MI, so the acuracy of the poll isn't all that great.


Well, I didn't go in and calculate how Nader voters would affect the margin, so a few of the states might be moved back over-- Vermont would be the first to shift back.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #1080 on: February 18, 2004, 03:04:14 pm »

I would trust a drunken farmer over a Zogby poll...

That's who does his polling.

That wouldn't suprise me at all...

Well, the problem with my analysis is that we are talking about individual states and not a Gore-merica nation. Still, I think it's interesting.  Zogby does have a history of doing well in presidential election match-ups, though.
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1081 on: February 18, 2004, 10:35:44 pm »

I just don't see it.

From where I'm sitting, the Zogby results line up with about a 55%+ approval rating for Bush, which is way over the 8-poll moving average (at 51.50, even filtering 1-stdev outliers) as of the latest Gallup poll.

Let's say Zogby has a superior handle on the situation at the moment: If so, and this holds true in November,  Bush sweeps Red States and pockets IA, NM, WI, OR, MN, MI, ME, WA and PA, as well.

Final score in ye olde EC:  370-168. Not a sweep, but good enough for more government work.

I'd be inclined to accept Zogby if the Gallup poll had shown a significant upward bump in Bush's approval ratings; as it stands, I cannot help but notice that the sample was taken in the midst of the short-lived scandal surrounding Kerry last week. There may be a distortion in the results; a follow-up sample seems prudent.

What am I saying? It's nine months to Election Day. Of course there will be follow-up!
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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #1082 on: February 18, 2004, 11:08:09 pm »

Edwards is a moderate on social issues, while being the most left wing candidate on economic issues.
This is often called "Populism".


Yeah you're right about that.  
This is unrelated but who is Elliot Richardson? A friend of mine mentioned to me about him being a potential running mate for Kerry if he gets the nomination.

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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1083 on: February 18, 2004, 11:34:03 pm »

Edwards is a moderate on social issues, while being the most left wing candidate on economic issues.
This is often called "Populism".


Yeah you're right about that.  
This is unrelated but who is Elliot Richardson? A friend of mine mentioned to me about him being a potential running mate for Kerry if he gets the nomination.


Do you mean Bill Richardson?
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #1084 on: February 19, 2004, 08:44:07 am »

Edwards is a moderate on social issues, while being the most left wing candidate on economic issues.
This is often called "Populism".


Yeah you're right about that.  
This is unrelated but who is Elliot Richardson? A friend of mine mentioned to me about him being a potential running mate for Kerry if he gets the nomination.



Easy, he's a super-clone from the future. He's part Eliot Spitzer, fearless crusader against corporate corruption, and Bill Richardson,  fearless crusader against protecting our nuclear secrets.
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havok201
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« Reply #1085 on: February 19, 2004, 02:09:01 pm »

The Question must be asked... If Kerry chooses Edwards as his running mate, how many Southern states suddenly come into play?  1? 3? All of them?
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elcorazon
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« Reply #1086 on: February 19, 2004, 02:13:04 pm »

I'm not sure any do.  I don't think Edwards has much impact in Louisiana or Arkansas.  I doubt he has much in Tenn or Va either.  Georgia and SC are too out of reach I suspect.  NC is the only one where he'll make a serious difference, but I think there may be too much ground to make up there.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1087 on: February 19, 2004, 02:17:02 pm »

I think the Deep South is too heavily GOP, with the exception of LA. I'd say LA, AR, NC, TN and VA are the states that could concievably be in play. But that's it, and not all of these would be in play, they just could.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1088 on: February 19, 2004, 02:54:51 pm »

The Deep South isn't heavily GOP, the Democrats just need our voters to actually vote...genuine white-black coalition...populism...
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1089 on: February 19, 2004, 03:23:11 pm »

The Deep South isn't heavily GOP, the Democrats just need our voters to actually vote...genuine white-black coalition...populism...

Me Tarzan...you Jane...love... Wink

I don't think that coalition will come into being in this election that's all.
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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #1090 on: February 19, 2004, 03:55:47 pm »

I just don't see it.

From where I'm sitting, the Zogby results line up with about a 55%+ approval rating for Bush, which is way over the 8-poll moving average (at 51.50, even filtering 1-stdev outliers) as of the latest Gallup poll.

Let's say Zogby has a superior handle on the situation at the moment: If so, and this holds true in November,  Bush sweeps Red States and pockets IA, NM, WI, OR, MN, MI, ME, WA and PA, as well.

Final score in ye olde EC:  370-168. Not a sweep, but good enough for more government work.

I'd be inclined to accept Zogby if the Gallup poll had shown a significant upward bump in Bush's approval ratings; as it stands, I cannot help but notice that the sample was taken in the midst of the short-lived scandal surrounding Kerry last week. There may be a distortion in the results; a follow-up sample seems prudent.

What am I saying? It's nine months to Election Day. Of course there will be follow-up!



Hey man, welcome to the forum.


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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1091 on: February 19, 2004, 03:58:16 pm »

True Sad
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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #1092 on: February 19, 2004, 03:58:55 pm »

The Question must be asked... If Kerry chooses Edwards as his running mate, how many Southern states suddenly come into play?  1? 3? All of them?


If Edwards and Kerry are on the same ticket you may get NC, SC, VA (the governor recently endorsed Kerry).  Florida and Georgia are tossups, so is Tennessee.  But thats it.

By the way, welcome to the forum.  

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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1093 on: February 19, 2004, 04:01:32 pm »

The Question must be asked... If Kerry chooses Edwards as his running mate, how many Southern states suddenly come into play?  1? 3? All of them?


If Edwards and Kerry are on the same ticket you may get NC, SC, VA (the governor recently endorsed Kerry).  Florida and Georgia are tossups, so is Tennessee.  But thats it.

By the way, welcome to the forum.  


Even with Edwards I think Kerry loses every southern state.
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1094 on: February 19, 2004, 04:31:07 pm »

Breakout of Southern States in the 2004 presidential election (as of the latest poll data)

Bush continues to be strong in the South, and support for him in the core of reliably Republican states isn't seriously threatened in my model until his nationwide approval ratings dip under 45%. (At the moment, the average of the latest eight major polls is 51.5%.)

Reliably Republican
1. Texas
2. Mississippi
3. Lousiana
4. Kentucky (border state)
5. Arkansas
6. South Carolina
7. Georgia
8. Alabama
9. North Carolina
10. West Virginia (border state)

Leans Republican
11. Virginia
12. Tennessee                  
13. Missouri (border state)

Leans Democrat
14. Florida                          

Reliably Democrat
15. Maryland (border state)

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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1095 on: February 19, 2004, 04:32:41 pm »

Florida leans Bush, Arkansas isn't solid Bush.
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1096 on: February 19, 2004, 04:36:23 pm »

Saratoga - Thanks for the welcome aboard. Smiley

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cskendrick
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« Reply #1097 on: February 19, 2004, 04:44:09 pm »

Florida leans Bush, Arkansas isn't solid Bush.

I'm working on a liberal/conservative model; I think Arkansas is as conservative a state as Georgia or South Carolina, and Florida is as liberal a state as Minnesota or Oregon...rather, about as closely divided as those states.

A weakness of my model is that conservatism and Republicanism (likewise, liberalism and Democratism) are imperfectly correlated.

And fixing the leaks is why I'm here. Smiley

Arkansas - Why are the Democrats relatively strong there? The Clintons? A strong party organization?

Florida - I don't really need to ask the reverse question, given whose brother is governor there. Smiley
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1098 on: February 19, 2004, 04:50:49 pm »

Arkansas is a socially conservative state but the right economic message can win there.  I think Edwards would win Arkansas.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1099 on: February 19, 2004, 04:52:52 pm »

Arkansas is very much like Lousiana, a Southern state that's similar to MS and AL, but for some reason more Democratic.
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