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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1100 on: February 19, 2004, 04:59:23 pm »

Arkansas is very much like Lousiana, a Southern state that's similar to MS and AL, but for some reason more Democratic.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #1101 on: February 19, 2004, 05:03:02 pm »

Breakout of Southern States in the 2004 presidential election (as of the latest poll data)

Bush continues to be strong in the South, and support for him in the core of reliably Republican states isn't seriously threatened in my model until his nationwide approval ratings dip under 45%. (At the moment, the average of the latest eight major polls is 51.5%.)

Reliably Republican
1. Texas
2. Mississippi
3. Lousiana
4. Kentucky (border state)
5. Arkansas
6. South Carolina
7. Georgia
8. Alabama
9. North Carolina
10. West Virginia (border state)

Leans Republican
11. Virginia
12. Tennessee                  
13. Missouri (border state)

Leans Democrat
14. Florida                          

Reliably Democrat
15. Maryland (border state)


West Virginia is not reliably Republican.  Tennessee might be, however.  Take a look at the 1988 results vis a vis the rest of the country.  
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #1102 on: February 19, 2004, 07:02:46 pm »

I think the only Southern State that Kerry could carry (especially without Edwards) is Louisiana.   It had been trending Democratic (recent House, Senate and Gov wins), and unlike the rest of the South, is predominantly  Catholic.  I haven't seen any recent polls, though.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1103 on: February 19, 2004, 07:14:02 pm »

I think the only Southern State that Kerry could carry (especially without Edwards) is Louisiana.   It had been trending Democratic (recent House, Senate and Gov wins), and unlike the rest of the South, is predominantly  Catholic.  I haven't seen any recent polls, though.
No recent polling.  Old polls show Bush trouncing Dem rivals, but times have changed.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #1104 on: February 19, 2004, 07:33:19 pm »

DURHAM, NH -- President George W. Bush’s approval rating in New Hampshire has dropped to the lowest level of his presidency. Bush is now bested by his two top Democratic challengers for the November presidential election.

These findings are based on the latest Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. The Granite State Poll is sponsored by the University of New Hampshire. Five hundred eleven (511) randomly selected adults were interviewed by telephone between February 4 and February 12, 2004.

The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/-4.3 percent.

Approval Continues to Slide

President Bush’s approval ratings in New Hampshire have declined to their lowest levels during his tenure as president. While Bush’s job approval has been sliding since the official end of the war in Iraq, the recent visibility of Democratic presidential candidates – and their rhetoric targeting the president’s troubles with the economy and Iraq – has hurt Bush in New Hampshire. In the most recent Granite State Poll, 47 percent of New Hampshire adults say they approve of the job Bush is doing as president, 48 percent disapprove, and 5 percent are neutral. The percentage of Granite Staters who approve of Bush is down from a post Iraq war high of 71 percent in the April 2003 Granite State Poll and down 9 percentage points from the October Granite State Poll. "Although Bush is currently in a tough spot, the large number of Republicans in the New Hampshire should pull his approval ratings upward as we get closer to the election," said Andrew Smith, Director of the UNH Survey Center. "But approval ratings in the 40s for an incumbent president are a cause for concern."

Bush's personal favorability ratings have also declined to a new low. Currently, 48 percent of New Hampshire adults say they have a favorable opinion of Bush, 48 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 4 percent are neutral. Bush's net favorability rating, the percentage who have a favorable opinion minus the percentage who have an unfavorable opinion, is at 0 percent, down from +19 in October and his record high of +80 percent in October 2001.

Economic Approval Rating

While the U.S. economy grew strongly in the 3 rd and 4 th quarters of 2003, assessments of Bush’s handling of the economy continue to decline in New Hampshire. In the most recent Granite State Poll, only 41 percent of New Hampshire residents say they approve of the job President Bush is doing handling the economy, 54 percent disapprove, and 5 percent are neutral. This is down 5 percentage points since October, when Bush’s economic approval ratings dropped below 50 percent in New Hampshire for the first time.

Foreign Affairs & Iraq

When asked to rate the job Bush is doing handling foreign affairs, 44 percent of New Hampshire adults say they approve, 52 percent disapprove, and 5 percent are neutral. This represents a decline of 9 percentage points since October and the lowest since the September 11 attacks.

When asked about how Mr. Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, only 44 percent approve, 53 percent disapprove, and 3 percent are neutral. This represents a 10 percent decline since October, and represents a significant decline since April when 79 percent of Granite Staters approved of Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq.

Despite criticism of his handling of Iraq by candidates in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary, most New Hampshire residents still support the war with Iraq, but by an ever smaller margin. Currently, 58 percent of New Hampshire adults say they support the United States having gone to war with Iraq, 33 percent oppose, and 10 percent are neutral. Support for the war was highest in the April poll when 80 percent of New Hampshire adults said they supported the US having gone to war with Iraq.

2004 Presidential Election

Presidential approval ratings are closely followed by political analysts because of the correlation between approval ratings and reelection. In October, Bush led his two most likely Democratic challengers in New Hampshire in 2004 presidential election trial heats, but now has relinquished his lead to John Kerry. When asked to think ahead to a 2004 presidential matchup with Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, only 38 percent of likely November voters say they would vote for Bush, 53 percent say they would vote for Kerry, 1 percent favor some other candidate, and 8 percent are undecided or will not vote.

When matched with North Carolina Senator John Edwards, 37 percent say they would vote for Bush, 51 percent say they would vote for Edwards, 1 percent say they prefer some other candidate, and 11 percent say they are undecided or will not vote.

Regardless of who they plan to vote for in the 2004 election, 45 percent of New Hampshire residents believe Bush will win the election, 42 percent think the Democratic party’s nominee will win, 1 percent think some other candidate will win, and 12 percent don’t know who will win the election. While Granite Staters still believe Bush will win in November, the 42 percent gap between the president and the Democratic nominee has slowly melted to 11 percent in October and only 3 percent in the most recent Granite State Poll.

SUB-GROUP ANALYSIS

New Hampshire is extremely polarized in how it views President Bush. Republicans are quite supportive while Democrats strongly disapprove of his performance as President. Bush gets his highest overall, economic, and foreign affairs approval ratings as well as his highest personal favorability ratings from Republicans, conservatives, those with an education level of high school or less, and people who have lived in New Hampshire between 6 and 10 years. He gets low marks from Democrats, liberals, and those who have attended graduate school.

And New Hampshire is even more polarized over Iraq with 83 percent of Republicans approving and 83 percent of Democrats disapproving of Bush’s handling of the situation in Iraq. Similarly, 90 percent of Republicans support the US having gone to war with Iraq while 52 percent of Democrats oppose the war. Independent voters support the war, but at significantly lower levels than Republicans - 53 percent say they support the US having gone to war with Iraq.
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Brutus
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« Reply #1105 on: February 19, 2004, 08:25:17 pm »

Breakout of Southern States in the 2004 presidential election (as of the latest poll data)

Bush continues to be strong in the South, and support for him in the core of reliably Republican states isn't seriously threatened in my model until his nationwide approval ratings dip under 45%. (At the moment, the average of the latest eight major polls is 51.5%.)

Reliably Republican
1. Texas
2. Mississippi
3. Lousiana
4. Kentucky (border state)
5. Arkansas
6. South Carolina
7. Georgia
8. Alabama
9. North Carolina
10. West Virginia (border state)

Leans Republican
11. Virginia
12. Tennessee                  
13. Missouri (border state)

Leans Democrat
14. Florida                          

Reliably Democrat
15. Maryland (border state)


West Virginia is not reliably Republican.  Tennessee might be, however.  Take a look at the 1988 results vis a vis the rest of the country.  

I don't why pundits are always lumping West Virginia in with the GOP's southern block.  From what I've heard, registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans two to one, and that the only reason Bush carried it in 2000 was due to Gore's environmental positions.  Furthermore, other than the Republican landslides in 1972 and 1984, WV has been pretty reliably Democrat in presidential elections.

First posting from a newbie and political junkie.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1106 on: February 19, 2004, 08:37:54 pm »

Aagh!  Kerry isn't leading in NH!  Please no!  Now I have to take another state out of his column on the prediction map.
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1107 on: February 19, 2004, 08:46:51 pm »

Thank you, everybody.

Here's what I did on short notice: I swapped 5% of the electorate from one side to the other, depending on the straw poll of suggestions here.

Figuring it prudent, I boosted the conservative count in Texas, as well...not that I needed to. Smiley

I might contest the suggestion that Tennessee is reliably Republican, given its Democratic governor. But two years ago, South Carolina had a Dem governor, too, so I will concede the point.

Adjusted to More Republican: Texas, Tennesee, Florida

Adjusted to More Democrat: Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia.

Breakdown of Southern State, version 2.0 Smiley

Reliably Republican
1. Texas
2. Mississippi
3. Kentucky (border state)
4. South Carolina
5. Georgia
6. Alabama

Leans Republican
7. North Carolina
8. Tennessee
9. Louisiana
10. Arkansas

Leans Democrat
11. Virginia
12. Florida
13. West Virginia (border state)
14. Missouri (border state)

Reliably Democrat
15. Maryland (border state)

You know, this makes a lot more sense.

Thanks, folks!

NOTE: The Pew report came out today; the moving average of nationwide Bush approval ratings (which I use to drive my predictions) now stands at 50.50. This information is incorporated here:
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1108 on: February 19, 2004, 09:04:33 pm »

Not bad this time!  I'll make my own list:

Solid Republican

1. Texas
2. Mississippi
3. Kentucky
4. South Carolina
5. Georgia
6. Alabama

Leans Republican

1. Virginia
2. Florida
3. West Virginia
4. Missouri
5. North Carolina (Only in play if Edwards is at the TOP of the ticket)
6. Vrginia (Only in play if Warner is VP selection)
7. Louisiana (Lean Dem if Edwards is the nominee)
8. Arkansas (Lean Dem if Edwards is the nominee)

Leans Democratic

(Empty)

Solid Democratic

1. Maryland

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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1109 on: February 19, 2004, 09:37:15 pm »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Bush 276 to Kerry 262

It actually looks like the election favors Kerry about now, but I can't jinx it!
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Firefly
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« Reply #1110 on: February 20, 2004, 01:37:08 am »

There are rumors that Roy Moore is going to run on the Constitution Party ticket for President.  Anyone have any predictions on a Bush vs. Kerry vs. Moore race?  Would Moore's candidacy put states like Alabama, Mississippi, and Utah into play?
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opebo
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« Reply #1111 on: February 20, 2004, 02:25:50 am »

There are rumors that Roy Moore is going to run on the Constitution Party ticket for President.  Anyone have any predictions on a Bush vs. Kerry vs. Moore race?  Would Moore's candidacy put states like Alabama, Mississippi, and Utah into play?

Moore would not put any of the states you mentioned at risk.  Bush's margin will be big enough in AL and MS to absorb a few points for Moore.  It would have little or no effect in Utah.  However I guess it could have some effect in places like Florida or West Virginia, if they're close enough.

Remember, Southerners will dread a Kerry presidency, so even if they like Moore, they'll be careful how they vote.  The last time they screwed up in this way was voting for Perot in 92, and Bush senior was much less popular in the South than GW is.. in addition Kerry is more repulsive to Southerners than Clinton was in 92 (before they got to know him).  
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opebo
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« Reply #1112 on: February 20, 2004, 02:34:58 am »

Thank you, everybody.

Breakdown of Southern State, version 2.0 Smiley

Reliably Republican
1. Texas
2. Mississippi
3. Kentucky (border state)
4. South Carolina
5. Georgia
6. Alabama

Leans Republican
7. North Carolina
8. Tennessee
9. Louisiana
10. Arkansas

Leans Democrat
11. Virginia
12. Florida
13. West Virginia (border state)
14. Missouri (border state)

Reliably Democrat
15. Maryland (border state)


Wow, Missouri leans Democrat?  I doubt it.  Also it is a midwestern state btw.

Here's my view:

Solid Republican:

1) Texas
2) Mississippi
3) Kentucky
4) Alabama
5) South Carolina
6) Georgia
7) North Carolina
Cool Virginia
9) Tennessee
10) Arkansas
11) Louisiana

Leans Republican:

1) Missouri
2) West Virgina
3) Florida

And Maryland is not a Southern state by any stretch - its a Mid-Atlantic and there for Northeastner state, which is why its reliable Democrat.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1113 on: February 20, 2004, 04:58:58 am »

Defining the South by the Mason-Dixon line and the Ohio river:

R-beyond reasonable doubt

Oklahoma
Texas

R-balance of probabilities

Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina*
Kentucky
Florida

No Clear Favourite

Virginia
Tennessee
Arkansas

D-balance of probabilities

West Virginia
Delaware
Louisiana

D-beyond reasonable doubt

District of Columbia
Maryland
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dunn
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« Reply #1114 on: February 20, 2004, 05:05:32 am »

woldn't you say Alabama and Mississippi are R beyond reanble doubt?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1115 on: February 20, 2004, 05:09:26 am »

No... because of possible 3rd party run by Roy Moore.
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dunn
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« Reply #1116 on: February 20, 2004, 05:15:31 am »

will he ran in most/all states or just the deep south?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1117 on: February 20, 2004, 05:30:42 am »

All the states that the Constitution Party is on the ballot for I'd guess...
I still think that Dubya will win Alabama and Mississippi but I'm not certain.
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dunn
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« Reply #1118 on: February 20, 2004, 05:33:46 am »

isn't that funny? he was ousted for not obyeing a federal-contitutional rulling and will run under the constitution party?
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« Reply #1119 on: February 20, 2004, 05:39:21 am »

All the states that the Constitution Party is on the ballot for I'd guess...
I still think that Dubya will win Alabama and Mississippi but I'm not certain.

I am, though.

Rep Totally safe
1 Oklahoma
2 Mississippi
3 South Carolina
4 Alabama
5 Texas
6 Georgia
7 Kentucky
Rep clear Favorite
8 North Carolina
9 Missouri
10 Tennessee
11 Virginia
12 Louisiana
13 Arkansas
Tossup, Rep if I have to choose one
14 Florida
Tossup, Dem if I have to choose one
15 West Virginia
Dem Favorite
(empty)
Dem totally safe
16 Delaware
17 Maryland
18 D.C.
Maryland and Delaware are traditionally Southern states that have been transformed immensely and are now disputable.
Missouri tends to be classified as Midwestern rather than Southern, but is a former slave state, votes basically like a border state, and has a high percentage of members of the Southern Baptist Convention.
In other words, I classified all states that can be classified as Southern, rather than all states everybody would agree are Southern.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #1120 on: February 20, 2004, 08:45:48 am »

There are rumors that Roy Moore is going to run on the Constitution Party ticket for President.  Anyone have any predictions on a Bush vs. Kerry vs. Moore race?  Would Moore's candidacy put states like Alabama, Mississippi, and Utah into play?

That's a believable rumor. He attended the Christian Coalition's "Family and Freedom" rally in Atlanta and loved the attention he got there.  The Constitution Party has 320,000 registered voters nationwide and has guaranteed ballot access in some states and would probably end up in about 40-45 states this year with Moore on the ticket. He's been making the rounds at all the state party meetings.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #1121 on: February 20, 2004, 09:49:02 am »

All the states that the Constitution Party is on the ballot for I'd guess...
I still think that Dubya will win Alabama and Mississippi but I'm not certain.

I am, though.

Rep Totally safe
1 Oklahoma
2 Mississippi
3 South Carolina
4 Alabama
5 Texas
6 Georgia
7 Kentucky
Rep clear Favorite
8 North Carolina
9 Missouri
10 Tennessee
11 Virginia
12 Louisiana
13 Arkansas
Tossup, Rep if I have to choose one
14 Florida
Tossup, Dem if I have to choose one
15 West Virginia
Dem Favorite
(empty)
Dem totally safe
16 Delaware
17 Maryland
18 D.C.
Maryland and Delaware are traditionally Southern states that have been transformed immensely and are now disputable.
Missouri tends to be classified as Midwestern rather than Southern, but is a former slave state, votes basically like a border state, and has a high percentage of members of the Southern Baptist Convention.
In other words, I classified all states that can be classified as Southern, rather than all states everybody would agree are Southern.

I'm in full agreement with you.   If the dems win any state where the republicans are clear favorites, it is because they have solidly won the election, in my opinion, other than Missouri, which is arguable to be in this category anyway.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1122 on: February 20, 2004, 09:54:23 am »

the average prediction went to 276 Dem to 262 Bush.
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1123 on: February 20, 2004, 11:05:43 am »

Regarding Missouri -

I guess I'd better show you, rather than tell you. Smiley

All of this is driven by an 8-poll moving average of national approval ratings for President Bush.

Each state has its own conservative/liberal predisposition. For Missouri, this is what you get

MISSOURI scenarios (as of 2/20/2004)

Bush ratings     Status
57.2%+            Strongly Republican
54.3-57.1%       Republican
51.5-54.2%       Leans Republican
48.5-51.4%       Leans Democrat
45.5-48.4%       Democrat
45.4%-            Strongly Democrat

As of the latest polls, the moving average is 50.5%.

Whatever it actually will be come Election Day is a matter for the voters to decide.

But this sure is a lot of fun. Smiley
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Firefly
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« Reply #1124 on: February 20, 2004, 11:25:26 am »

My breakdown of Southern states (as defined by states that joined the Confederacy) w/ Kerry as Dem. nominee and no significant 3rd party candidacies:

Safe Democratic
-none
Lean Democratic
-Louisiana
Tossup
-Florida
-Arkansas
Lean Republican
-Virginia
-Georgia
-Tennessee
Safe Republican
-Texas
-Alabama
-Mississippi
-South Carolina
-North Carolina

W/ Roy Moore and John Edwards as Kerry's VP
Safe Democratic
-Louisiana
-Arkansas
-Florida
Lean Democratic
-North Carolina
-South Carolina
-Virginia
-Georgia
-Tennessee
Tossup
-Alabama
Lean Republican
-Mississippi
Safe Republican
-Texas
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