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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 810631 times)
cskendrick
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« Reply #1150 on: February 21, 2004, 02:17:09 pm »

The florida race was so close because of the bring 5 campaign, where african-americans were encouraged to bring five friends and relatives with them when they voted.

Whilst it was highly sucessful for those who were allowed to vote...

Five real friends or five imaginary friends?



There are allegations that Katherine Harris used her office as FL Secretary of State to give Republicans a boost in the 2000 election.

Specifically, that she engaged in selective purging of the voter rolls on the eve of the 2000 election.

It's a testable hypothesis.

I'd like to hear more about how we can test for real versus imaginary voters.

Sounds like a useful confidence test in instances where the mechanism of tallying votes is suspect, invisible...or proprietary.

There is proof of dead people voting in Missouri.

Some would say that there is proof of living, eligible voters being denied the vote in Florida.

If the acts are equally reprehensible, then we can resolve the moral weight by a simple comparison of frequencies: (a) how many dead people voted in MO, and for which party? versus (b) how many living people were WRONGLY denied the vote in FL, and for which party would they have voted for?

Is this a game you are comfortable playing?


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cskendrick
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« Reply #1151 on: February 21, 2004, 02:20:05 pm »

The florida race was so close because of the bring 5 campaign, where african-americans were encouraged to bring five friends and relatives with them when they voted.

Whilst it was highly sucessful for those who were allowed to vote...

Five real friends or five imaginary friends?



There are allegations that Katherine Harris used her office as FL Secretary of State to give Republicans a boost in the 2000 election.

Specifically, that she engaged in selective purging of the voter rolls on the eve of the 2000 election.

It's a testable hypothesis.

I'd like to hear more about how we can test for real versus imaginary voters.

Sounds like a useful confidence test in instances where the mechanism of tallying votes is suspect, invisible...or proprietary.

Purging criminals is a good policy.


At no point do I criticize that position.

I think that purging eligible voters is bad.

I think reasonable, freedom-loving people the world over would agree with me.

And I am sure that you do, as well. Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1152 on: February 21, 2004, 03:46:35 pm »

Cskendrick... opebo is the most consistantly ammoral person on this site.
He likes gerrymandering and low turnouts, and also thinks that Dubya should fake Bin Laden's capture to get re-elected...
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1153 on: February 21, 2004, 05:34:57 pm »

Cskendrick... opebo is the most consistantly ammoral person on this site.
He likes gerrymandering and low turnouts, and also thinks that Dubya should fake Bin Laden's capture to get re-elected...

What interesting views!

I'll have to ask about them later on. Smiley
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1154 on: February 21, 2004, 05:42:10 pm »

Cskendrick... opebo is the most consistantly ammoral person on this site.
He likes gerrymandering and low turnouts, and also thinks that Dubya should fake Bin Laden's capture to get re-elected...

What interesting views!

I'll have to ask about them later on. Smiley

And he ain't exactly wild about democracy either, considering it ti be mob rule...he makes the mistake of many libertarians to mix up the size of the political domain with the question of how that domain should be ruled...a mix up that plays straight into the nads of the left... Sad
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JohnFKennedy
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« Reply #1155 on: February 21, 2004, 05:42:57 pm »

All this about not allowing people to vote, look for a book called "The Best Democracy Money Can Buy" by Greg Palast, an investigative journalist who looked into all of this, it has a copy of a bit of the "scrub list" in it which was the list of people who were stopped from voting because they were "criminals", it has the criminal and all the info and the info of the person stopped from voting, some of whom were of different race from each other so unless they pulled a Michael Jackson, it is unlikely they were the same person
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Gustaf
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« Reply #1156 on: February 21, 2004, 05:46:39 pm »

All this about not allowing people to vote, look for a book called "The Best Democracy Money Can Buy" by Greg Palast, an investigative journalist who looked into all of this, it has a copy of a bit of the "scrub list" in it which was the list of people who were stopped from voting because they were "criminals", it has the criminal and all the info and the info of the person stopped from voting, some of whom were of different race from each other so unless they pulled a Michael Jackson, it is unlikely they were the same person

Isn't that book very biased? I am not sure, but I seem to recall that it is...
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zachman
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« Reply #1157 on: February 21, 2004, 05:47:43 pm »

All this about not allowing people to vote, look for a book called "The Best Democracy Money Can Buy" by Greg Palast, an investigative journalist who looked into all of this, it has a copy of a bit of the "scrub list" in it which was the list of people who were stopped from voting because they were "criminals", it has the criminal and all the info and the info of the person stopped from voting, some of whom were of different race from each other so unless they pulled a Michael Jackson, it is unlikely they were the same person

Was that the same topic in Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them? I read that in Florida, Katherine Harris had ordered people with the same names as likely criminals not to vote.
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JohnFKennedy
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« Reply #1158 on: February 21, 2004, 05:50:55 pm »

not so much ordered them not to vote as ordered their rights to vote taken away by having them removed from the voter list.
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Platypus
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« Reply #1159 on: February 21, 2004, 06:26:19 pm »

The only qualification was the same four first letters of the surname and given name, the rest good be 'similar'. Middle names could be different, they could have suffixes (Jr., II, etc.), and it wouldn't matter.

Also, only people who were incarcerated in Florida and other states that purged ex-felons were allowed to be purged, but they purged people who had been incarcerated in states that restored their rights, like New York. Considering 90% of ex-felons vote Democrat, just these few thousand people who were not allowed to vote would have swung the election.
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JohnFKennedy
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« Reply #1160 on: February 21, 2004, 06:58:01 pm »

not all were ex felons though, like 50,000 people were stopped from voting, around 40,000 of whom i think it was were black and about 98% of black people vote democrat.
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Platypus
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« Reply #1161 on: February 21, 2004, 08:20:52 pm »

slight exaggeration, its more like 88%.

Also, 80% of the people who were excluded were ot black, it was around 40%-still disproportionally high, but not by such a huge margin.

Eitgher way, it was illegal, immoral and disgusting.

It was just another example of the partisanship of our elections-n both sides-and it needs to be stopped. We need a nation-wide, independent body, like Britain has, that runs the elections, not individual states, and even worse, counties.
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opebo
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« Reply #1162 on: February 22, 2004, 12:37:23 am »

The florida race was so close because of the bring 5 campaign, where african-americans were encouraged to bring five friends and relatives with them when they voted.

Whilst it was highly sucessful for those who were allowed to vote...

Five real friends or five imaginary friends?



There are allegations that Katherine Harris used her office as FL Secretary of State to give Republicans a boost in the 2000 election.

Specifically, that she engaged in selective purging of the voter rolls on the eve of the 2000 election.

It's a testable hypothesis.

I'd like to hear more about how we can test for real versus imaginary voters.

Sounds like a useful confidence test in instances where the mechanism of tallying votes is suspect, invisible...or proprietary.

There is proof of dead people voting in Missouri.

Some would say that there is proof of living, eligible voters being denied the vote in Florida.

If the acts are equally reprehensible, then we can resolve the moral weight by a simple comparison of frequencies: (a) how many dead people voted in MO, and for which party? versus (b) how many living people were WRONGLY denied the vote in FL, and for which party would they have voted for?

Is this a game you are comfortable playing?


The dead people voting in Missouri were of course voting Democrat, in inner city districts.  The Democrats are way ahead of the Republicans in the arena of voter fraud.  I was never prouder of Kit Bond than after the 2000 debacle when Ashcroft was 'defeated' - the worthy man nearly burst a blood vessel on the stump complaining of the Democrat shenanigans in the City of St. Louis.  
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1163 on: February 22, 2004, 08:11:11 am »
« Edited: February 22, 2004, 08:20:33 am by cskendrick »

The florida race was so close because of the bring 5 campaign, where african-americans were encouraged to bring five friends and relatives with them when they voted.

Whilst it was highly sucessful for those who were allowed to vote...

Five real friends or five imaginary friends?



There are allegations that Katherine Harris used her office as FL Secretary of State to give Republicans a boost in the 2000 election.

Specifically, that she engaged in selective purging of the voter rolls on the eve of the 2000 election.

It's a testable hypothesis.

I'd like to hear more about how we can test for real versus imaginary voters.

Sounds like a useful confidence test in instances where the mechanism of tallying votes is suspect, invisible...or proprietary.

There is proof of dead people voting in Missouri.

Some would say that there is proof of living, eligible voters being denied the vote in Florida.

If the acts are equally reprehensible, then we can resolve the moral weight by a simple comparison of frequencies: (a) how many dead people voted in MO, and for which party? versus (b) how many living people were WRONGLY denied the vote in FL, and for which party would they have voted for?

Is this a game you are comfortable playing?


The dead people voting in Missouri were of course voting Democrat, in inner city districts.  The Democrats are way ahead of the Republicans in the arena of voter fraud.  I was never prouder of Kit Bond than after the 2000 debacle when Ashcroft was 'defeated' - the worthy man nearly burst a blood vessel on the stump complaining of the Democrat shenanigans in the City of St. Louis.  

Maybe it's just me, but it seems to me that tampering with elections a terrible thing, even when Republicans do it.

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JohnFKennedy
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« Reply #1164 on: February 22, 2004, 08:31:02 am »

well the fact is, Republicans won Florida by 537 votes, if even only 25,269 of those 50,000 voted Democrat then they would have won Florida and the election, considering the majority of the 50,000 were Democrats, that wouldn't have been too hard
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opebo
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« Reply #1165 on: February 22, 2004, 09:02:45 am »

well the fact is, Republicans won Florida by 537 votes, if even only 25,269 of those 50,000 voted Democrat then they would have won Florida and the election, considering the majority of the 50,000 were Democrats, that wouldn't have been too hard

Well worth it to make sure no felons voted.  I for one don't want criminals voting.
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JohnFKennedy
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« Reply #1166 on: February 22, 2004, 10:00:54 am »

but we have already established that a large proportion of these people were NOT criminals, they just had similar names to criminals. How would you feel if the majority of these had been Republicans and Al Gore had won because of this, I bet you would change your mind then.

Besides they were not Felons, they were EX-felons, they had committed a crime and served their debt to society, by denying these people the right to vote you treat them like second class citizens.
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opebo
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« Reply #1167 on: February 22, 2004, 10:04:26 am »

but we have already established that a large proportion of these people were NOT criminals, they just had similar names to criminals. How would you feel if the majority of these had been Republicans and Al Gore had won because of this, I bet you would change your mind then.

Besides they were not Felons, they were EX-felons, they had committed a crime and served their debt to society, by denying these people the right to vote you treat them like second class citizens.

There's no such thing as an 'ex-felon'.  You're a felon for the rest of  your life - lucky to be out of prison, but still marked.
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JohnFKennedy
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« Reply #1168 on: February 22, 2004, 10:05:52 am »

you didn't answer my first point, would you feel differently if the Republicans had lost the vote and the reason was the prevention of eligible voters from voting
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1169 on: February 22, 2004, 11:22:00 am »

well the fact is, Republicans won Florida by 537 votes, if even only 25,269 of those 50,000 voted Democrat then they would have won Florida and the election, considering the majority of the 50,000 were Democrats, that wouldn't have been too hard

Well worth it to make sure no felons voted.  I for one don't want criminals voting.

Katherine Harris' partisan zeal cost thousands of ELIGIBLE voters their franchise.

Tampering with elections is bad news, even when Republicans do it.
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1170 on: February 22, 2004, 11:24:00 am »

but we have already established that a large proportion of these people were NOT criminals, they just had similar names to criminals. How would you feel if the majority of these had been Republicans and Al Gore had won because of this, I bet you would change your mind then.

Besides they were not Felons, they were EX-felons, they had committed a crime and served their debt to society, by denying these people the right to vote you treat them like second class citizens.

There's no such thing as an 'ex-felon'.  You're a felon for the rest of  your life - lucky to be out of prison, but still marked.

And there's no such thing as a LEGITIMATE stripping of an eligible person's voting rights.

In fact, it's a crime to do so, several times over.

Even when Republicans do it. Smiley
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Mort from NewYawk
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« Reply #1171 on: February 25, 2004, 12:23:18 pm »

MY PREDICTION

At this point in the primary season, I have seen enough to be persuaded that the Democrats are a party still reacting to the Cliniton impeachment and 2000 electoral debacles. The leadership is unable to articulate coherent, positive domestic or foreign policies, and instead is hoping that enough goes wrong with the economy or Iraq that the incumbent will be judged harshly. I don't see this message changing much through Election Day.

If Iraq stays out of a civil war and the economy stays clear of oil-price-induced inflation, the Republicans should be able to persuade the dwindling middle to stick with them, in spite of the highly polarized environment. Although Bush could lose the popular vote and still squeak out a win, I predict he'll get about 49.7% of the PV, less than 1% more than the Dems, but giving him the edge in the key Midwest battleground states of IA, WS, OH, and MO. He'll lose MN and MI, PA will be the closest state, which the Dems will win by a hair:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/USERMAPS/pe20041035C1.gif
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elcorazon
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« Reply #1172 on: February 25, 2004, 12:33:21 pm »

not a bad analysis.  I still think Wisconsin will go with Kerry, and that Iowa is a tossup.  Ohio is also going to be close and I suspect WV will go to Kerry.  Nevada may also go to Kerry.  I think your percentages will be close +/- 2%, which pretty much tells you nothing.
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1173 on: February 25, 2004, 12:50:11 pm »

not a bad analysis.  I still think Wisconsin will go with Kerry, and that Iowa is a tossup.  Ohio is also going to be close and I suspect WV will go to Kerry.  Nevada may also go to Kerry.  I think your percentages will be close +/- 2%, which pretty much tells you nothing.

My pick for the closest race is Ohio.

As for the popular vote/electoral vote situation, I think Bush is in much greater danger of being "Gored" (gets the PV, loses in the EC) than is being considered.

From where I'm sitting, he needs about 52% approval ratings (not exactly a high bar to clear) to win, though the inevitable arrival of Ralph Nader to the party may change that. Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1174 on: February 25, 2004, 01:24:07 pm »

Quote
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After all, the states that Dubya's economic [mis]managment have hit hardest have a tendency to be small...
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