Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 15, 2019, 11:53:18 pm
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 ... 17 Print
Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 821293 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #125 on: January 17, 2004, 05:57:38 pm »

How many pages do you think this thread will have by November 2004?  250?
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #126 on: January 17, 2004, 06:16:27 pm »

How many pages do you think this thread will have by November 2004?  250?

At least.
And how many replies?  3000?

I think posting at this topic will heat up during and after the primaries.

Every forum has a very long thread, and this is ours.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #127 on: January 17, 2004, 07:41:24 pm »

Yes, definitely. I have seen some statistics from a Swedish group mail-thingy I was on last year, and during the last month before election day the number of messages went sky-high.
It's gonna be a fun ride.

How do you think replies on this thread will trend after the election?
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #128 on: January 17, 2004, 07:51:56 pm »

Leip may lock this thread a few months after the 2004 election.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #129 on: January 17, 2004, 08:04:23 pm »

It would be the logical thing to do,  to kind of archive the thread.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #130 on: January 18, 2004, 09:01:59 am »

Kerry would win california and Pennsylvania, but lose Michigan and wisconsin.  He might take maine also.

I think Kerry actually might be a weaker candidate than Dean.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #131 on: January 18, 2004, 05:53:42 pm »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 349 to Kerry 189.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #132 on: January 18, 2004, 05:54:26 pm »

Looking at that map it's hard to beliveve Kerry had 189...lol.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #133 on: January 18, 2004, 06:32:58 pm »

Looking at that map it's hard to beliveve Kerry had 189...lol.

You mean b/c the Red area looks so small? Smiley
Yeah, all the Bush states that are large geographically are small population wise.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #134 on: January 18, 2004, 10:41:07 pm »

Nice Map you did a good Job on it
Thank you.  Tell god that I made a nice map, alright?

It is not a sure thing that Kerry would win Washington.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #135 on: January 18, 2004, 10:57:00 pm »

OK, maybe not surely.

But he'd have a better chance at it then Bush, imo.
I think Bush would take it becuase Kerry wouldn't energize the urban liberal base in Seattle, which is the state's lone Democratic stronghold.

What does imo mean?
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #136 on: January 19, 2004, 01:53:15 pm »

I don't know all that much about Washington state either, but I do know the only liberal area is the greater Seattle area, as you go further west in the less populted areas it becomes more conservative.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #137 on: January 19, 2004, 03:28:00 pm »

Does Spokane vote democratic?  I don't know exactly where Spokane is located so the county maps don't help me out.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #138 on: January 19, 2004, 03:46:01 pm »

Spokane County voted for Bush in 2000, but voted Democrat in 1992 and 1996 and almost did in 1988.
It's on the WA-ID border.
Okay.  thanks.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #139 on: January 20, 2004, 04:37:09 pm »

UPDATED Edwards v. bush:


Edwards 325 to Bush 213

Call me crazy, but I watched Edwards on Larry King lasy night, and I realized how well he connected to people.  He can and will do this.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #140 on: January 20, 2004, 04:53:23 pm »

Edwards is the only Democrat running a positive campaign, and it is only now starting to pay off.

JE2K4
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #141 on: January 20, 2004, 05:14:13 pm »

Edwards is the only Democrat running a positive campaign, and it is only now starting to pay off.

JE2K4

With the success Bush had, I'm surprised more Dems didn't choose that path. Edwards was able to do it because everyone else wasn't.  They could have put him away by now.
Do you think Edwards can beat GWB?
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #142 on: January 20, 2004, 08:49:01 pm »

I'd love to see Edwards as our candidate and I believe he can beat bush, but I don't think JE or any other Dem can swamp Bush 325-213

I think it'll be the 2000 map all over again with Edwards picking up New Hampshire and Missouri to squeek out a 275-263 victory
Edwards wold definitely sway WV to us...populism wins.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #143 on: January 20, 2004, 09:25:48 pm »

Well, now that Dean has gone bye bye, I'm hoping for General Clark as an opponent.  He's at least as nutty as Dean.  Alas, we probably won't get that lucky.  That would be too good to be true.
It will be Edwards or Kerry.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #144 on: January 21, 2004, 08:02:09 am »

I bet that is Lewis Toldheim's last post.  People whose useernames are their actal name don't last that long, with the exception of Zeigermann.

Anyway, most of the states that swung right went GOP anyway, and most that swung left went Dem anyway.

Also, add Constitution to the right-wing paties, and add the socialist parties tot he dem side for a more accurate prediction.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #145 on: January 22, 2004, 03:33:57 pm »

Dean is finished.  too bad guys, you might just have to work for this one.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #146 on: January 23, 2004, 04:54:15 pm »

Dean's speech (AKA drunken tirade) in Iowa was the finishing touch in the end of Howard dean.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #147 on: January 23, 2004, 05:03:31 pm »

Dean has dropped down to 10 points behind Kerry in NH, and he used to lead there by 30 points.  I think that the final nail is in the coffin.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #148 on: January 23, 2004, 05:10:54 pm »

I guess you didn't see the deabte last night, gustaf, but clark was horrible.  He made no sense.  That's why I said he shoudl wear a shirt that says 'I have no idea what's going on.'  This thing is between Kerry and edwards, the southern moderate anbd the Northeastern liberal.
Logged
tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 36,600
United States


« Reply #149 on: January 23, 2004, 05:14:17 pm »

HE hasn't really been up in the polls, so he won't go down.

They broadcast the debate in Sweden?
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 8 9 10 11 ... 17 Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC