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  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 823293 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #200 on: February 18, 2004, 11:43:29 am »

Don't you love people that don't agree with Dems are seen as uneducated.  NASCAR is growing and is popular otside of the south too.
It is?
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #201 on: February 18, 2004, 11:54:59 am »

NASCAR is a waste of gas.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #202 on: February 18, 2004, 01:29:08 pm »

That makes the map look like this:



But, Polls have shown Kerru ahead in VT and WA, plus big leads for generic democrats in WI and MI, so the acuracy of the poll isn't all that great.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #203 on: February 18, 2004, 01:40:38 pm »

Zogby's polls are usually inaccurate, and they lean left.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #204 on: February 18, 2004, 11:34:03 pm »

Edwards is a moderate on social issues, while being the most left wing candidate on economic issues.
This is often called "Populism".


Yeah you're right about that.  
This is unrelated but who is Elliot Richardson? A friend of mine mentioned to me about him being a potential running mate for Kerry if he gets the nomination.


Do you mean Bill Richardson?
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #205 on: February 19, 2004, 04:01:32 pm »

The Question must be asked... If Kerry chooses Edwards as his running mate, how many Southern states suddenly come into play?  1? 3? All of them?


If Edwards and Kerry are on the same ticket you may get NC, SC, VA (the governor recently endorsed Kerry).  Florida and Georgia are tossups, so is Tennessee.  But thats it.

By the way, welcome to the forum.  


Even with Edwards I think Kerry loses every southern state.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #206 on: February 19, 2004, 04:32:41 pm »

Florida leans Bush, Arkansas isn't solid Bush.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #207 on: February 19, 2004, 04:50:49 pm »

Arkansas is a socially conservative state but the right economic message can win there.  I think Edwards would win Arkansas.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #208 on: February 19, 2004, 04:59:23 pm »

Arkansas is very much like Lousiana, a Southern state that's similar to MS and AL, but for some reason more Democratic.
Economics
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #209 on: February 19, 2004, 07:14:02 pm »

I think the only Southern State that Kerry could carry (especially without Edwards) is Louisiana.   It had been trending Democratic (recent House, Senate and Gov wins), and unlike the rest of the South, is predominantly  Catholic.  I haven't seen any recent polls, though.
No recent polling.  Old polls show Bush trouncing Dem rivals, but times have changed.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #210 on: February 19, 2004, 08:37:54 pm »

Aagh!  Kerry isn't leading in NH!  Please no!  Now I have to take another state out of his column on the prediction map.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #211 on: February 19, 2004, 09:04:33 pm »

Not bad this time!  I'll make my own list:

Solid Republican

1. Texas
2. Mississippi
3. Kentucky
4. South Carolina
5. Georgia
6. Alabama

Leans Republican

1. Virginia
2. Florida
3. West Virginia
4. Missouri
5. North Carolina (Only in play if Edwards is at the TOP of the ticket)
6. Vrginia (Only in play if Warner is VP selection)
7. Louisiana (Lean Dem if Edwards is the nominee)
8. Arkansas (Lean Dem if Edwards is the nominee)

Leans Democratic

(Empty)

Solid Democratic

1. Maryland

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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #212 on: February 19, 2004, 09:37:15 pm »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Bush 276 to Kerry 262

It actually looks like the election favors Kerry about now, but I can't jinx it!
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #213 on: February 20, 2004, 09:54:23 am »

the average prediction went to 276 Dem to 262 Bush.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #214 on: February 20, 2004, 11:29:30 am »

Sounds about right, firefly.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #215 on: February 20, 2004, 11:34:08 am »

BTW, I like the 'draftmoore04' URL.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #216 on: February 20, 2004, 11:37:37 am »

Go to my forum, we can discuss the web design a little.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #217 on: March 03, 2004, 09:06:01 pm »

If your going by current polling NH is solid Kerry, 53-38% in the latest poll I believe.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #218 on: March 06, 2004, 10:10:52 pm »

alright guys, i entered my map.  let me know what you think.

You just took the 2000 map and switched NH...that's no fun Tongue
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #219 on: March 06, 2004, 10:16:40 pm »

I have my map ready. This is what I think will happen. Democrats are fooling themselves.

I don't see your prediction.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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United States


« Reply #220 on: March 06, 2004, 10:46:57 pm »

Link doesn't work
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #221 on: March 06, 2004, 11:22:32 pm »

I see it now, I didn't type in the speace before.

You ask me how to post an image, and then you say that my Hurricanes suck?  Try again Smiley

You do it like this:

put [ img] and [ /img ] tags around the web adress of the image you want to post, minus the spaces.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #222 on: March 07, 2004, 09:51:29 am »


Any chance of California ever going Republican again?

Not in this election.  Even though Gore "only" won it by 11%, that's still a 650,000 vote swing needed to sway it to Bush.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #223 on: March 09, 2004, 06:03:26 pm »

Who knows, maybe I'm completely nuts.


yes, I think you are Cheesy
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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Posts: 36,597
United States


« Reply #224 on: March 13, 2004, 09:11:48 pm »

We're on our 100th page of this thread!
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