2004 User Predictions - Discussion

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Reply #1500!

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Sanity is a relative term.

Anyway, updated prediction today:



Bush/Cheney 282
Kerry/Edwards 256

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Ohio will go for Kerry, only if Pennsylvania does.

JOBS

Ohio don't got em

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Pennsylvania hasn't been hard hit by jobs?

We're out of the recession belt AND anti-Bush.

Rural Central-Western PA yes, which is heavily GOP for the most part.

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Miami, it sounds like you almost hope Bush will win. But I agree with you Dean would have been a better candidate. I hope Bush wins but I don't think over the next 8 months Kerry will be much of a challenge. I dont know the job situation in Ohio, but in the Presidents speech the other day things sounded pretty good or recovering at least. If Bush is only a 1 termer he will be the most successful 1 termer in U.S. History. Everything about the U.S. Economy is growing but the job growth is slow. Consumer Confidence is higher now then when Clinton ran for re-election, unemployment is lower then when Clinton ran. Clintons unemployment rate was 6.4% compared to Bushs' 5.5%.

A few things.

-I do not hope Bush will win, rather, I am a pessimist.
-Dean is a weaker candidate in the general election than Kerry.
-Clinton's unEmp rate was very good considering it constantly decreased from the point he took office.  It approached nearly 8% during the Bush41 presidency.

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Ohio will go for Kerry, only if Pennsylvania does.

JOBS

Ohio don't got em

Actually Ohio's been hovering around 6% unemployment - marginally worse than Missouri at 4.7%, but not nearly as bad as the West Coast or NY.

6% is high, and Ohio, outside of Cleveland is rural dominated.  you always have higher unEmp in urban areas, and CA has many and NY's takes up 40% of the state's population.

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Realpolitik,

We aren't winning VA this time.  Hold off until 2008.

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Realpolitik,

We aren't winning VA this time.  Hold off until 2008.

Depends who Kerry chooses as VP.
I've put it as a tossup anyhow.

We lost it by 8% last time, it's a stretch.

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Gore underperformed in Southern VA ("Southside")... a mix of his apparent stances on coal and tobacco.
If Kerry chooses a running mate who can appeal to these people he has a chance.

Gore lost the Panhandle, which is basically an extension of the coal mining part of WV.  But that area will not swing that state to Kerry.  Almost *all* of WV is 'that area', so Kerry will win there in all likelyhood.

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I agree, Virginia is not in play.
In 2008, it will be.

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Updated:



Bush 319
Kerry 219

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You lost faith in Kerry all  in a sudden?

Yes.  He is a god damned joke.

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I think John "Unnamed foreign leaders want me to win" Kerry will win WV pretty easily...

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I think it has been quite obvious for months now that I dislike Kerry.

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I agree, Virginia is not in play.
In 2008, it will be.

Well, theoretically or demographically, yes, but not practically.  Because 2008 is going to be an easy win for whichever party has the presidency from 2004-2008.  Economic reasons - 2008 will be the 'sweet spot' of the current/incipient boom, and unemployment will be very low.

It's very silly to day that 4 1/2 years from the election.

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I think that if Bush is re-elected, there will be an anti-GOP "movement" if you will, and after huge losses in 2006 (compatable to 1994 for the Dems), they will be forced to go moderate for '08 (Giuliani, McCain.)

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McCain is a Democrat, dont let the (R) fool you.

LOL!  Name one Democrat in the senate with a 60% ecnomic and social conservative rating.  You can't do it!  McCain is to the right of every democrat in the senate ecnomically and socially.  He is also to the right of every senate Dem in foreign affairs except Zell Miller.

I don't go around saying Zell Miller is a Republican, because that is not true.  And saying McCain is a Democrat is just as absurd.

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McCain is a Democrat, dont let the (R) fool you.

McCain isn't a Democrat.  As Republican Senators go, he is probably in the middle when it comes to ideology.

Well, he is liberal for a Republican.  Lets see:

Chaffee, Snowe, collins, Specter, the guy from Oregon, and then McCaim?

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Pataki is a joke at the national level.  Against Edwards in 2008 he would lose NEW YORK by 20%.

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Pataki v. Edwards is a runaway.



Edwards 426
Pataki 112

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How about Colin Powell? I know its been said, but I believe that would be a good chance.

He would be a good choice (and he would be a president I could live with), but from what I hear, his wife has full control over him.

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Powell would get trounced in the southern primaries though, which might make it hard for him to win the nomination.

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NH and ME will trend into solidly Democratic states.
The midwest will trend GOP but will still be in play.
Virginia will trend Dem.

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That map looks highly off.

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I see a few are having quick conversations to boost their numbers.  Kind of sad, at least most of mine have been actual policy oriented.  Not all but most.

Hey, DarthKosh, you're a YabbGod all of a sudden. Just b/c of all the pyramids... I have been tricked into participating in your power game and unwittingly contributed to your success. But not anymore...

Who was that comment directed at?

At DarthKosh, but I could sy the same of you, I see now! Actually, I benefited from the pyramid games myself, so I will sneak into a god position when you least expect it... *insane evil laughter*

what the heck

Lol, how did you dig that up?

Remember when we used to build pyramids?