2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[© tweed]

"Just trying to see if I could affect any of the median results with my one entry."

I doubt it worked, we have 1100+ entries now.

[© tweed]

that's good, and the original map was good as well

On the north-south map, shouldn't Alaska go with the north?

Good point.

[© tweed]

Boss Tweed, I still question why WV is Democratic on your map.  It seems if Bush can take Pennsylvania and hold onto New Hampshire and Ohio and then surge enough to take Michigan and the Midwest, he'd be high enough to hold onto West Virginia.

Map is gone for now...gotta support the Devils.

[© tweed]

Recents:

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http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2861

Ah, a serious one that has California, Rhode Island, New York, Vermont all tossups.  Kind of strange that  New Mexico is as well since if Bush has caught up 10+ points in Cali and 20+ in Rhode Island, he should be stomping the Southwest.

Justification is that the Ahnuld will get votes for Bush in California and Kerry's too liberal for New England.

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http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2857

Kerry with Montana, North Dakota, the entire Southwest, Arkansas and Missouri but somehow still losing Maryland (!?) West Virginia and Pennsylvania.

At least those people left comments to justify their idiacy.

[© tweed]

Here is a really whacky one! What was this dude thinking?

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2571

LOL!

[© tweed]

thanks it is a good one, more fun to fill in the states too

http://www.grayraven.com/ec

Yeah grayraven is pretty good.  I like it better than Edwards' but not as much as I like Leip's.  

Suck-up! Btw, in 5 minutes is 2004! And they say "where America goes the world follows"... Not this time! I will be waiting for you to catch up! Happy new year everybody!

It is 2004 in about 5 hours here.  and I genuinely do like Leip's better thanthe other ones.

5 hours and 13 minutes until 2004.

I guess we are both on the east coast.  

that is why I have a blue pennsylvania under my name.

That's true.  I guess I just can't put 2 and 2 together.

The two of you are building another pyramid!

And you are contributing, Gustaf!  thanks!

You're welcome!

No problem.

But I insist.

How big do these pyramids get?

It depends on the number of posts.

I don't think that the pyramids get much better than this...see that solid line.

There is always room for improvement.

Not really.  Look closely.

weee

Every time I do this another quote disappears,t hus the pyramids are not improved.

You're right, they don't get any better...

Those were the days...

[© tweed]

Fritz, that won't happen.

[© tweed]

Fritz, that won't happen.

What won't happen?  There won't be a tie, or the Democrats won't take the Senate?  Or both?  Both things appear very possible.

Both.  a tie is probably more likely than Dems winning the senate.

[© tweed]

I haven't really been watching all the Senate races, I'm just going off of RightWingNut's predictions in the Senate prediction thread.  And he's Republican!

Dems will have trouble holding the southern open seats.

[© tweed]

I think most of the Democrats are upset because they are starting to realize it's like '84 all over again and they don't want to accept the fact of it yet.

Nah...Bush is no reagan, the economy is no Reagan...

[© tweed]

Here's an interesting map:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=2902

He has just about every state >70% or >80% for whichever candidate.  Oddly enough, some of those states are leaners (Maine, Washington) and one is a tossup (Oregon).

I don't think he understand what the percentages mean.  He thinks the percentages indicate the % chance one candidate has to win a state, and not the percent of vote the candidate will get.

[© tweed]

UPDATED Kerry vs. Bush:


Bush/Cheney 51.5%, 306 EV's
Kerry/Edwards 48.0%, 232 EV's

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Kerry could lose the PV by 5% and still win the election; expect Bush to rack up votes in the south.

[© tweed]

Kerry is getting hammered right now w/very little response.

...So why isn't he down double digits in the polls?

[© tweed]

Old 'uns:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=130

NC is strong Dem... CA is a lean Dem... NH is a toss going to Bush. ?!?

that's CM!

[© tweed]

Silly CM

That's back when he thought the ticket would be Clark/Edwards...so it *almost* explaina the prediction.

[© tweed]

Here's a prediction from a Scottish Conservative.

I'm pretty sure both the economy and Iraq will have improved come November, and I'm pretty uninspired by Kerry as a candidate.

Thoughts?

Also, how do I post the image rather than just the link?

Pretty good...I think Kerry will win Oregon now that Nader looks to be off the ballot.  Other than that, I can't find fault with it.

[© tweed]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Kerry/Freudenthal  288
Bush/Ashcroft 250

[© tweed]

it hurts my eyes, mummy....

is Blue democrat or republican in this?

Republican

[© tweed]

Yea landslide why would anybody in their right mind vote for Kerry. Kerry will just let saddam go and give Iraq back to him. Plus he will raise taxes for all!

LOL...looks like we have another Reaganfan on our hands, only worse this time.

[© tweed]

Umm I hate to sound confused here, but where the heck did you get this idea Tweed?

Lol, it's a joke.

BTW Freudenthal is Wyoming's Democratic Governor...I never thought I'd live to see the day...

[© tweed]

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:



Bush/Cheney 309
Kerry/Edwards 229

[© tweed]

I did, and I made a post about it.

You also gave up on Louisiana.

How do you put your map on a slant like that?

[© tweed]

I did, and I made a post about it.

You also gave up on Louisiana.

How do you put your map on a slant like that?

I edited my post a few seconds afterwards to mention Lousiana, you beat me to it it seems.

The code is here:
<img width=253 height=92>http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/USERMAPS/pe20041363P4.gif</img>

That puts it on a slant?

[© tweed]

It stretches the image to whatever size you want.  If the width:height ratio is higher than the image starts at, it'll be stretched sideways.

Okay, thanks.

[© tweed]

why have both of you given Kerry Ohio and Bush Pennsylvania? Surely if Bush wins PA he will win OH.

Not necessarily...depends how the philly latte-drinking liberals vote.  If they vote for Nader Kerry might not win PA.