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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 823359 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #400 on: January 01, 2004, 07:01:00 pm »

I see a few are having quick conversations to boost their numbers.  Kind of sad, at least most of mine have been actual policy oriented.  Not all but most.

Hey, DarthKosh, you're a YabbGod all of a sudden. Just b/c of all the pyramids... I have been tricked into participating in your power game and unwittingly contributed to your success. Smiley But not anymore...
Who was that comment directed at?
At DarthKosh, but I could sy the same of you, I see now! Smiley Actually, I benefited from the pyramid games myself, so I will sneak into a god position when you least expect it... Smiley *insane evil laughter*
Yeah, I guess we both did.  But I didn't to them to increase my posts, I did them for fun.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #401 on: January 01, 2004, 07:02:20 pm »

I see a few are having quick conversations to boost their numbers.  Kind of sad, at least most of mine have been actual policy oriented.  Not all but most.

Hey, DarthKosh, you're a YabbGod all of a sudden. Just b/c of all the pyramids... I have been tricked into participating in your power game and unwittingly contributed to your success. Smiley But not anymore...
Who was that comment directed at?
At DarthKosh, but I could sy the same of you, I see now! Smiley Actually, I benefited from the pyramid games myself, so I will sneak into a god position when you least expect it... Smiley *insane evil laughter*
Yeah, I guess we both did.  But I didn't to them to increase my posts, I did them for fun.
That's what we all say... Smiley
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #402 on: January 01, 2004, 07:03:19 pm »

Right.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #403 on: January 02, 2004, 07:16:43 pm »


It is...but let's try and focus this one, shall we? Smiley I currently have three predictions going, all of them show GOP-victories. My main prob is not seeing enough polls and not knowing about all of the events influencing voters. Swedish media don't pay a lot of attention to American politics, though they will later on, when elections come closer.

America really is a different world, actually much more so than I originally thought. Sports, politics, everything except TV, I guess, is different.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #404 on: January 02, 2004, 07:34:42 pm »
« Edited: January 02, 2004, 07:35:04 pm by Miamiu1027 »


It is...but let's try and focus this one, shall we? Smiley I currently have three predictions going, all of them show GOP-victories. My main prob is not seeing enough polls and not knowing about all of the events influencing voters. Swedish media don't pay a lot of attention to American politics, though they will later on, when elections come closer.

America really is a different world, actually much more so than I originally thought. Sports, politics, everything except TV, I guess, is different.
Polls mean nothing at this point.  believe me.  Look at 1980 and 1992.
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Carey
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« Reply #405 on: January 03, 2004, 10:02:05 am »

ok, this Australian (who, even though he leans left, will be neutral here, due to it not being my decidion) has compiled a realistic "best case scenario" for Reps and "best case scenario" for Dems. A landslide is possiblke for both sides if they play their cards right, but their will be no McGovernish losses for either side, due to the polarisation of America at the mo.

For the Democratic Best Case Scenario: Carey
For the Republican Best Case Scenario: Carey2

I apologise if I made a mistake with the shades of certain states, I was kinda rushing.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #406 on: January 03, 2004, 10:23:07 am »

ok, this Australian (who, even though he leans left, will be neutral here, due to it not being my decidion) has compiled a realistic "best case scenario" for Reps and "best case scenario" for Dems. A landslide is possiblke for both sides if they play their cards right, but their will be no McGovernish losses for either side, due to the polarisation of America at the mo.

For the Democratic Best Case Scenario: Carey
For the Republican Best Case Scenario: Carey2

I apologise if I made a mistake with the shades of certain states, I was kinda rushing.

Seems reasonable to me. You have a lot of tossups in both cases, and you let all of them go to the winning party, but otherwise they seemed accurate to me. Why don't you make one which is not best-worse, but the one you think will occur? Wink
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Carey
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« Reply #407 on: January 03, 2004, 10:40:35 am »

ok, this Australian (who, even though he leans left, will be neutral here, due to it not being my decidion) has compiled a realistic "best case scenario" for Reps and "best case scenario" for Dems. A landslide is possiblke for both sides if they play their cards right, but their will be no McGovernish losses for either side, due to the polarisation of America at the mo.

For the Democratic Best Case Scenario: Carey
For the Republican Best Case Scenario: Carey2

I apologise if I made a mistake with the shades of certain states, I was kinda rushing.

Seems reasonable to me. You have a lot of tossups in both cases, and you let all of them go to the winning party, but otherwise they seemed accurate to me. Why don't you make one which is not best-worse, but the one you think will occur? Wink

well to answer the tossup point, in a best case scenario, all of the tossups would go to the winner.

Secondly, the realistic one I will do as soon as a nominee is clear (and no, Howard Dean has not won it, and I would not be surprised if he doesn't get the nom)

plus I am afraid of being wrong Wink lol
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #408 on: January 03, 2004, 10:44:00 am »

The link is www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Lot's of very interesting trends, even though I don't trust polls a lot...

That's quite and insteresting site.
He's baaaack!!
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Gustaf
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« Reply #409 on: January 03, 2004, 10:44:42 am »

ok, this Australian (who, even though he leans left, will be neutral here, due to it not being my decidion) has compiled a realistic "best case scenario" for Reps and "best case scenario" for Dems. A landslide is possiblke for both sides if they play their cards right, but their will be no McGovernish losses for either side, due to the polarisation of America at the mo.

For the Democratic Best Case Scenario: Carey
For the Republican Best Case Scenario: Carey2

I apologise if I made a mistake with the shades of certain states, I was kinda rushing.

Seems reasonable to me. You have a lot of tossups in both cases, and you let all of them go to the winning party, but otherwise they seemed accurate to me. Why don't you make one which is not best-worse, but the one you think will occur? Wink

well to answer the tossup point, in a best case scenario, all of the tossups would go to the winner.

Secondly, the realistic one I will do as soon as a nominee is clear (and no, Howard Dean has not won it, and I would not be surprised if he doesn't get the nom)

plus I am afraid of being wrong Wink lol

Good points, no one seem to agreee with me on tossups anyway, so never mind that...

I agree Dean has not clinched it yet, but if he beats Gephardt in Iowa he will be hard to stop. There are other threads for this, though, so you can post there if you're interested in discussing that.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #410 on: January 03, 2004, 10:45:58 am »

The key to stopping Dean is on Feb. 3rd with Clark on OK, AZ, and SC.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #411 on: January 03, 2004, 12:09:50 pm »

But after 2 weeks fo free air time and 2 wins by Dean, the media coverage will be huge for him and will eliminate Clark too.


The key to stopping Dean is on Feb. 3rd with Clark on OK, AZ, and SC.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #412 on: January 03, 2004, 12:25:19 pm »

But after 2 weeks fo free air time and 2 wins by Dean, the media coverage will be huge for him and will eliminate Clark too.


The key to stopping Dean is on Feb. 3rd with Clark on OK, AZ, and SC.
Clark won't be eliminated by then.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #413 on: January 03, 2004, 01:04:58 pm »

The key to stopping Dean is on Feb. 3rd with Clark on OK, AZ, and SC.

If they can not stop dean on that date then the Dems are in trouble.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #414 on: January 03, 2004, 01:09:36 pm »

The key to stopping Dean is on Feb. 3rd with Clark on OK, AZ, and SC.

If they can not stop dean on that date then the Dems are in trouble.
Well, that's their last chance.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #415 on: January 03, 2004, 01:10:48 pm »

The key to stopping Dean is on Feb. 3rd with Clark on OK, AZ, and SC.

If they can not stop dean on that date then the Dems are in trouble.
Well, that's their last chance.
Then when Dean is nominated they then can watch the party run off a cliff.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #416 on: January 03, 2004, 01:11:30 pm »

The key to stopping Dean is on Feb. 3rd with Clark on OK, AZ, and SC.

If they can not stop dean on that date then the Dems are in trouble.
Well, that's their last chance.
Then when Dean is nominated they then can watch the party run off a cliff.
Say what you may, yay!
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #417 on: January 03, 2004, 01:12:38 pm »

The key to stopping Dean is on Feb. 3rd with Clark on OK, AZ, and SC.

If they can not stop dean on that date then the Dems are in trouble.
Well, that's their last chance.
Then when Dean is nominated they then can watch the party run off a cliff.
Say what you may, yay!
It's true all the smart Dems know it.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #418 on: January 03, 2004, 01:15:44 pm »

So I'm a stupid Dem.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #419 on: January 03, 2004, 03:35:14 pm »

Miami Miami Miami, look at your last post.  Talk about leaving the door WIDE Open to a comment Smiley

Well Stu Rothenberg was on C-SPAN a while ago discussing Politics at American University and it was very informative check it out if you can on replay.

Detailed Presidential and Senate races.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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« Reply #420 on: January 03, 2004, 03:47:24 pm »

You were watching that too? - That was interesting although he might want a geography lesson!  The two senate people they had on afterwards weren't quite as informative as they were biased and didn't answer anybody's questions.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #421 on: January 03, 2004, 03:50:29 pm »

Yeah I was like I could do that job as I know the candidates better than he did and sure as heck know geography better.

Quite watching after that, had some errands to run.  Plus swaiting for football!  GO COWBOYS!


You were watching that too? - That was interesting although he might want a geography lesson!  The two senate people they had on afterwards weren't quite as informative as they were biased and didn't answer anybody's questions.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #422 on: January 03, 2004, 04:45:47 pm »

Yeah I was like I could do that job as I know the candidates better than he did and sure as heck know geography better.

Quite watching after that, had some errands to run.  Plus swaiting for football!  GO COWBOYS!


You were watching that too? - That was interesting although he might want a geography lesson!  The two senate people they had on afterwards weren't quite as informative as they were biased and didn't answer anybody's questions.
Cowboys have no chance against the soon-to-be NFC champion Panthers.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #423 on: January 03, 2004, 06:33:18 pm »

wake up! Miami, your dreaming again!


Yeah I was like I could do that job as I know the candidates better than he did and sure as heck know geography better.

Quite watching after that, had some errands to run.  Plus swaiting for football!  GO COWBOYS!


You were watching that too? - That was interesting although he might want a geography lesson!  The two senate people they had on afterwards weren't quite as informative as they were biased and didn't answer anybody's questions.
Cowboys have no chance against the soon-to-be NFC champion Panthers.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #424 on: January 03, 2004, 06:37:09 pm »

wake up! Miami, your dreaming again!


Yeah I was like I could do that job as I know the candidates better than he did and sure as heck know geography better.

Quite watching after that, had some errands to run.  Plus swaiting for football!  GO COWBOYS!


You were watching that too? - That was interesting although he might want a geography lesson!  The two senate people they had on afterwards weren't quite as informative as they were biased and didn't answer anybody's questions.
Cowboys have no chance against the soon-to-be NFC champion Panthers.
Why's that?
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