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Ryan
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« Reply #50 on: November 29, 2003, 03:36:55 pm »

Well I cant be certain about this and mikey will no doubt clarify it but I think the percentages are CHANCES OF A PARTY WINNING the states altogether not their actual percentages there.

If you look at it from that angle most of them make sense. You guys shoulda thought of that :-) Why would somebody who had preceded it by such a reasonable analysis predict such wacky percentages?Huh
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Nym90
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« Reply #51 on: November 29, 2003, 05:26:15 pm »

I thought of that possibility too, but then why would he have some states going >40% Democrat or Republican? They sure look like actual predictions of percentages to me.
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nclib
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« Reply #52 on: November 29, 2003, 08:33:27 pm »

I'll graph my predictions when I get a chance, but here are my detailed predictions. This assumes no earth-shattering events between now and Nov. '04 and the Dems nominating either Dean or Gephardt and a competitive race.

Solid Dem: VT, NY, CT, RI, MA, MD, DC, DE, NJ, CA, WA, HI, IL

Solid GOP: ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, ID, MT, WY, UT, AK, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, KY, LA, IN

Lean Dem:

Maine
New Mexico (Gore won barely in '00 and a Hispanic Dem was solidly elected Governor--should be able to turn out Hispanics on election day)
Pennsylvania (more competitive if Dean is the nominee)
Michigan (ditto for MI)

Lean GOP:

Colorado
Tennessee
Florida (it'll be very close, but I must sadly say it leans GOP due to increased GOP registration and a solid win for Jeb Bush in 2002)
Nevada (a bit more competitive due to Yucca Mountain and an increasing Hispanic population)
Arizona (though more Democratic than in '00)

Tossup:

NH: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
MO: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
IA: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
WV: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
AR: Lean GOP, though highly competitive if Clark gets VP
OH: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
MN: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
WI: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
OR: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep

I figured Dean would overperform in states Nader did well in in 2000 (MN, WI, OR) and Gephardt would do well in his home state and in states with a high union population (MI, OH, PA, WV).
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mikeyc
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« Reply #53 on: November 30, 2003, 03:30:56 am »

no doubt - I doubt any state will allow a candidate capture 80%+ of the vote.  That's why I hate predicting brute numbers.  All I'm gonna say it's either lean or strong, so hence:

Maine:  lean Dem
New Hampshire:  lean Dem
Vermont:  strong Dem
Massachusetts:  strong Dem
Rhode Island:  strong Dem
Connecticut:  lean Dem
New York:  strong Dem
New Jersey:  strong Dem
Pennsylvania:  lean Rep
Delaware:  lean Dem
Maryland:  strong Dem
Washington DC:  strong Dem
West Virginia:  lean Dem
Virginia:  strong Rep
North Carolina:  strong Rep
South Carolina:  strong Rep
Georgia:  strong Rep
Florida:  lean Rep
Michigan:  lean Dem
Ohio:  lean Rep
Indiana:  strong Rep
Kentucky:  lean Rep
Tennessee:  lean Rep
Alabama:  strong Rep
Mississippi:  strong Rep
Wisconsin:  lean Rep
Illinois:  strong Dem
Minnesota:  lean Rep
Iowa:  lean Dem
Missouri:  lean Rep
Arkansas:  lean Rep
Louisiana:  lean Rep
tornado alley:  strong Rep (don't feel like typing each damn state :-)
Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah:  strong Rep
Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona:  lean Rep
Nevada, Washington, Oregon, California:  lean Dem
Alaska:  strong Rep
Hawai'i:  lean Dem
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #54 on: November 30, 2003, 06:09:20 am »

Tennessee is going to be close(again) and is certainly going to be worth a watch.
I'm curious as wether or the interesting voting patterns displayed in the state in the 2002 gubernatorial election will be repeated.
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agcatter
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« Reply #55 on: November 30, 2003, 07:34:07 am »

At the Presidential level?  Not a chance.
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Ryan
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« Reply #56 on: November 30, 2003, 12:29:24 pm »

Nice analysis. A question. Why is Washington state in solid Democrat??

I'll graph my predictions when I get a chance, but here are my detailed predictions. This assumes no earth-shattering events between now and Nov. '04 and the Dems nominating either Dean or Gephardt and a competitive race.

Solid Dem: VT, NY, CT, RI, MA, MD, DC, DE, NJ, CA, WA, HI, IL

Solid GOP: ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, ID, MT, WY, UT, AK, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, KY, LA, IN

Lean Dem:

Maine
New Mexico (Gore won barely in '00 and a Hispanic Dem was solidly elected Governor--should be able to turn out Hispanics on election day)
Pennsylvania (more competitive if Dean is the nominee)
Michigan (ditto for MI)

Lean GOP:

Colorado
Tennessee
Florida (it'll be very close, but I must sadly say it leans GOP due to increased GOP registration and a solid win for Jeb Bush in 2002)
Nevada (a bit more competitive due to Yucca Mountain and an increasing Hispanic population)
Arizona (though more Democratic than in '00)

Tossup:

NH: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
MO: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
IA: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
WV: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
AR: Lean GOP, though highly competitive if Clark gets VP
OH: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
MN: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
WI: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
OR: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep

I figured Dean would overperform in states Nader did well in in 2000 (MN, WI, OR) and Gephardt would do well in his home state and in states with a high union population (MI, OH, PA, WV).
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Ryan
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« Reply #57 on: November 30, 2003, 12:34:59 pm »

Nevada, Washington, Oregon, California:  lean Dem
Hawai'i:  lean Dem

All good except for California and Hawaii.............lean Dem?Huh?
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #58 on: November 30, 2003, 02:23:58 pm »

Tennessee is going to be close(again) and is certainly going to be worth a watch.
I'm curious as wether or the interesting voting patterns displayed in the state in the 2002 gubernatorial election will be repeated.

The Rep gov was unpopular and it affect the race.  I believe Tenn will not be all that close.
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Nym90
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« Reply #59 on: November 30, 2003, 02:41:10 pm »
« Edited: November 30, 2003, 02:43:11 pm by Nym90 »

One interesting thing about Hawaii over the years is that it has had a strong tendency to favor incumbent Presidents. In years in which there has been an incumbent Republican (1972, 1976, 1984, 1992) Hawaii was actually not much (if any) more Democratic than the national average, but when there has been an open race or a Democratic incumbent, it votes much more Democratic (especially when there is a Dem incumbent, as in 1964, 1980, and 1996). It will be interesting to see whether this trend continues, but if it does, than Hawaii could reasonably be expected to be only in the lean Dem column.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #60 on: November 30, 2003, 02:55:54 pm »

Tennesse is almost always very close and has been since the Civil War ended(although lots of people in Eastern Tennesse still seem to belive that a Democrat-Confederate government rules TN from Richmond, VA and that Abe' Lincon's troops have yet to reach them... but enough of that)
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mikeyc
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« Reply #61 on: November 30, 2003, 04:47:08 pm »

Ryan:  both California and Hawai'i (only my predictions) are gonna be lean Democrat unlike strong because of Arnold Schwarzenegger and recent Republican gubernatorial grabs in Hawai'i.  Just "hunches."  In addition, Hawai'i has a history of voting for the "right guy" (i.e. the winner of elections), but they've been Democrat for quite a few years now.  Again, a hunch...I can't see a DEVASTATING Democrat victory in either state.
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agcatter
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« Reply #62 on: November 30, 2003, 06:32:41 pm »

No northern Democrat has carried Tenn since '48 (border state Truman from Mo.).  The last 4 northern dems have gotten killed - Humphrey 68 actually finished 3rd in that election.  McGovern lost by 38.  Mondale lost by 18.  Dukakis lost by 16.  

Dean has as much chance of making Tenn competitive as Bush has of making a run in Massachusetts.  It aint gonna happen in either case.
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Ben.
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« Reply #63 on: December 01, 2003, 09:41:49 am »

Based on the 2000 contest and the current circumstances in most states by the summer (i.e the democratic convention) this is how I see the states looking. Dean I would say will very probably be the Democratic nominee with Clarke as his running mate. Dean will do poorly in many southern states…but in states such as Pennsylvania and West Virginia next to Gephardt he is best placed to exploit traditional blue collar democratic support amongst Union members and those states which went narrowly to Gore should still go to Dean as the Nader vote will almost certainly go to him in a big way.

The Lean Democratic States are going to be easier to win for the republicans than the lean republican states however I stick by my predictions.      


Alabama (9 EV) – Solid Republican    
Alaska  (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Arizona (10 EV) – Lean Republican
Arkansas (6 EV) – Lean Republican
California (55 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Colorado (9 EV) – Lean Republican    
Connecticut (7 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Delaware (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
D.C. (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Florida (27 EV) – Lean Republican    
Georgia (15 EV) – Solid Republican    
Hawaii (4 EV) – Lean Democratic  
Idaho (4 EV) – Solid Republican    
Illinois (21 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Indiana (11 EV) – Solid Republican    
Iowa (7 EV) – Lean Democratic  
Kansas (6 EV) – Solid Republican  
Kentucky (8 EV) – Solid Republican    
Louisiana (9 EV) – Solid Republican  
Maine (4 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Maryland (10 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Massachusetts (12 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Michigan (17 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Minnesota (10 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Mississippi (6 EV) – Solid Republican    
Missouri (11 EV) – Lean Republican  
Montana (3 EV) – Lean Republican    
Nebraska (5 EV) – Solid Republican    
Nevada (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New Hampshire (4 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New Jersey (15 EV) – Solid Democratic      
New Mexico (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New York (31 EV) – SOLID Democratic  
North Carolina (15 EV) – Lean Republican    
North Dakota (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Ohio (20 EV) – Lean Republican    
Oklahoma (7 EV) – Solid Republican  
Oregon (7 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Pennsylvania (21 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Rhode Island (4 EV) – Solid Democratic    
South Carolina (8 EV) – Solid Republican    
South Dakota (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Tennessee (11 EV) – Lean Republican    
Texas (34 EV) – Solid Republican  
Utah (5 EV) – Solid Republican  
Vermont (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Virginia (13 EV) – Solid Republican    
Washington (11 EV) – Lean Democratic    
West Virginia (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Wisconsin (10 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Wyoming (3 EV) – Solid Republican  
 
As for Congressional races I wouldn’t expect much change the Democrats will lose in Georgia for sure however Florida and North Carolina will be more competitive. In the North Dean’s troopers and the Union’s will be beating on doors and galvanising the apathetic to vote for Democratic candidates while in the South the GOP will run riot effectively cancelling each other out.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #64 on: December 01, 2003, 11:17:23 am »

No northern Democrat has carried Tenn since '48 (border state Truman from Mo.).  The last 4 northern dems have gotten killed - Humphrey 68 actually finished 3rd in that election.  McGovern lost by 38.  Mondale lost by 18.  Dukakis lost by 16.  

Dean has as much chance of making Tenn competitive as Bush has of making a run in Massachusetts.  It aint gonna happen in either case.

1968 is a bad example and you know it.
But the Dems have yet to choose their candidate anyway.
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John
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« Reply #65 on: December 01, 2003, 02:24:15 pm »

The Election will be Deacied by the People with 53% to Bush & Dean 45%
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #66 on: December 01, 2003, 02:52:01 pm »

The Election will be Deacied by the People with 53% to Bush & Dean 45%

Bush 54%
Dean 45%
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Ryan
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« Reply #67 on: December 01, 2003, 02:55:37 pm »

Well Yeah but the most I could say about either state is that the Democratic margin will be smaller than in 2000 (unless, as I have repeatedly mentioned, its a landslide year either way)

The recent gubernatorial elections signify a better organized state party which can turn out their base and that means a larger republican vote but not near a majority in either case.

Arnold and Lingle run as LOCAL republicans and actually almost as Independents. A LOT of their voters would never consider voting for Bush- Just like I keep assuring people that the recent Dem victory in La. does not mean even a marginal change at the national level. The antipathy towards the national democratic party is as strong as ever. Same for these states. If we are looking at a reasonably close election, they should be solid democrat.

And if at all I agree to change that I might change California because of a huge uncommitted if left-tending independent electorate who could TECHNICALLY vote GOP. Hawaii has a much stronger democratic base.

I wouldn't put too much stock in Hawaii's record as a bell-weather. I would caution against using bellwethers that didn’t work in 2000. For example Delaware has voted for the winning candidate for the TEN elections from 1960 through 1996. In 2000 it voted for the loser and by a huge margin. Proponents of its bell-weather status failed to note it had become increasingly democratic and only retained bellwether status in the 90's because the democrats happened to win both the elections held later that decade.  



Ryan:  both California and Hawai'i (only my predictions) are gonna be lean Democrat unlike strong because of Arnold Schwarzenegger and recent Republican gubernatorial grabs in Hawai'i.  Just "hunches."  In addition, Hawai'i has a history of voting for the "right guy" (i.e. the winner of elections), but they've been Democrat for quite a few years now.  Again, a hunch...I can't see a DEVASTATING Democrat victory in either state.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #68 on: December 01, 2003, 03:56:48 pm »

Well Yeah but the most I could say about either state is that the Democratic margin will be smaller than in 2000 (unless, as I have repeatedly mentioned, its a landslide year either way)

The recent gubernatorial elections signify a better organized state party which can turn out their base and that means a larger republican vote but not near a majority in either case.

Arnold and Lingle run as LOCAL republicans and actually almost as Independents. A LOT of their voters would never consider voting for Bush- Just like I keep assuring people that the recent Dem victory in La. does not mean even a marginal change at the national level. The antipathy towards the national democratic party is as strong as ever. Same for these states. If we are looking at a reasonably close election, they should be solid democrat.

And if at all I agree to change that I might change California because of a huge uncommitted if left-tending independent electorate who could TECHNICALLY vote GOP. Hawaii has a much stronger democratic base.

I wouldn't put too much stock in Hawaii's record as a bell-weather. I would caution against using bellwethers that didn’t work in 2000. For example Delaware has voted for the winning candidate for the TEN elections from 1960 through 1996. In 2000 it voted for the loser and by a huge margin. Proponents of its bell-weather status failed to note it had become increasingly democratic and only retained bellwether status in the 90's because the democrats happened to win both the elections held later that decade.  



Ryan:  both California and Hawai'i (only my predictions) are gonna be lean Democrat unlike strong because of Arnold Schwarzenegger and recent Republican gubernatorial grabs in Hawai'i.  Just "hunches."  In addition, Hawai'i has a history of voting for the "right guy" (i.e. the winner of elections), but they've been Democrat for quite a few years now.  Again, a hunch...I can't see a DEVASTATING Democrat victory in either state.

Like i saind in the wrong govenors thread.  Local Politics.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #69 on: December 01, 2003, 04:48:44 pm »

But a dean north vs Bush South = + Bush/GOp for Senate races.


Based on the 2000 contest and the current circumstances in most states by the summer (i.e the democratic convention) this is how I see the states looking. Dean I would say will very probably be the Democratic nominee with Clarke as his running mate. Dean will do poorly in many southern states…but in states such as Pennsylvania and West Virginia next to Gephardt he is best placed to exploit traditional blue collar democratic support amongst Union members and those states which went narrowly to Gore should still go to Dean as the Nader vote will almost certainly go to him in a big way.

The Lean Democratic States are going to be easier to win for the republicans than the lean republican states however I stick by my predictions.      


Alabama (9 EV) – Solid Republican    
Alaska  (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Arizona (10 EV) – Lean Republican
Arkansas (6 EV) – Lean Republican
California (55 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Colorado (9 EV) – Lean Republican    
Connecticut (7 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Delaware (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
D.C. (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Florida (27 EV) – Lean Republican    
Georgia (15 EV) – Solid Republican    
Hawaii (4 EV) – Lean Democratic  
Idaho (4 EV) – Solid Republican    
Illinois (21 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Indiana (11 EV) – Solid Republican    
Iowa (7 EV) – Lean Democratic  
Kansas (6 EV) – Solid Republican  
Kentucky (8 EV) – Solid Republican    
Louisiana (9 EV) – Solid Republican  
Maine (4 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Maryland (10 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Massachusetts (12 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Michigan (17 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Minnesota (10 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Mississippi (6 EV) – Solid Republican    
Missouri (11 EV) – Lean Republican  
Montana (3 EV) – Lean Republican    
Nebraska (5 EV) – Solid Republican    
Nevada (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New Hampshire (4 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New Jersey (15 EV) – Solid Democratic      
New Mexico (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
New York (31 EV) – SOLID Democratic  
North Carolina (15 EV) – Lean Republican    
North Dakota (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Ohio (20 EV) – Lean Republican    
Oklahoma (7 EV) – Solid Republican  
Oregon (7 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Pennsylvania (21 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Rhode Island (4 EV) – Solid Democratic    
South Carolina (8 EV) – Solid Republican    
South Dakota (3 EV) – Solid Republican    
Tennessee (11 EV) – Lean Republican    
Texas (34 EV) – Solid Republican  
Utah (5 EV) – Solid Republican  
Vermont (3 EV) – Solid Democratic    
Virginia (13 EV) – Solid Republican    
Washington (11 EV) – Lean Democratic    
West Virginia (5 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Wisconsin (10 EV) – Lean Democratic    
Wyoming (3 EV) – Solid Republican  
 
As for Congressional races I wouldn’t expect much change the Democrats will lose in Georgia for sure however Florida and North Carolina will be more competitive. In the North Dean’s troopers and the Union’s will be beating on doors and galvanising the apathetic to vote for Democratic candidates while in the South the GOP will run riot effectively cancelling each other out.

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Demrepdan
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« Reply #70 on: December 01, 2003, 05:49:20 pm »

The Election will be Deacied by the People with 53% to Bush & Dean 45%

Bush 54%
Dean 45%

It just keeps going up doesn't it?!
Allow me to boost the numbers.

Bush: 56%
Dean: 43%

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agcatter
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« Reply #71 on: December 01, 2003, 07:09:26 pm »

<1968 is a bad example and you know it>

Not a bad example at all.  I don't know where you get that.  It is entirely reflective of  the weakness of every other Northern lib Dem running in Tenn since then.  As a matter of fact, 68  was CLOSE compared to elections since.  McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis got drubbed worse.

You are right, Dean hasn't been nominated yet.  However, you can substitute Kerry's name, Gephart, whoever....Northern liberals get squashed in the South.  Good grief.  If Gore gets beat by 4% and it's his state, what do you think will happen to Dean and company.

I keep telling you.  Forget the South.  No amount of wishful thinking is going to change the fact that there is no historical trend pointing to a competitive race in Tennessee between Bush and this bunch.  None whatsoever.
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nclib
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« Reply #72 on: December 01, 2003, 07:55:00 pm »

Nice analysis. A question. Why is Washington state in solid Democrat??

I'll graph my predictions when I get a chance, but here are my detailed predictions. This assumes no earth-shattering events between now and Nov. '04 and the Dems nominating either Dean or Gephardt and a competitive race.

Solid Dem: VT, NY, CT, RI, MA, MD, DC, DE, NJ, CA, WA, HI, IL

Solid GOP: ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, ID, MT, WY, UT, AK, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, KY, LA, IN

Lean Dem:

Maine
New Mexico (Gore won barely in '00 and a Hispanic Dem was solidly elected Governor--should be able to turn out Hispanics on election day)
Pennsylvania (more competitive if Dean is the nominee)
Michigan (ditto for MI)

Lean GOP:

Colorado
Tennessee
Florida (it'll be very close, but I must sadly say it leans GOP due to increased GOP registration and a solid win for Jeb Bush in 2002)
Nevada (a bit more competitive due to Yucca Mountain and an increasing Hispanic population)
Arizona (though more Democratic than in '00)

Tossup:

NH: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
MO: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
IA: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
WV: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
AR: Lean GOP, though highly competitive if Clark gets VP
OH: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
MN: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
WI: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
OR: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep

I figured Dean would overperform in states Nader did well in in 2000 (MN, WI, OR) and Gephardt would do well in his home state and in states with a high union population (MI, OH, PA, WV).

Regarding Washington state:

I was on the fence between putting it in Solid or Lean Dem. I decided to put it in Solid Dem because of an increasing minority population and the fact that after '94 Dems have won both 2/2 pres. races, 2/2 gov. races, 2/2 senate races, and have picked up 4 House seats. But again, it could go either way.
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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #73 on: December 01, 2003, 08:57:51 pm »

I believe that the only Sputhern states that the Dems have a chance at are Arkansas, Florida, and Tennessee.  

Arkansas may go to the Dems if Clark is on the ticket and Florida was a dead heat in 2000, so there is a chance.  

Tennessee could go to the Dems if Clark is on the ticket and if the Democratic nominee does not press the gun issue too much.  Al Gore kept talking about Columbine and he ended up losing his home state to Bush.  

The Dems could also get Louisiana, Clinton had it in 1992 and 1996 but now it is in my tossup category because Gore lost it by 130,000 votes.    

Oh, and Happy Holidays to all.    

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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #74 on: December 01, 2003, 08:58:55 pm »

Sorry about the typeo in the first sentence it should be "Southern"  
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