2004 User Predictions - Discussion (user search)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 866304 times)
Platypus
hughento
Atlas Star
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Posts: 21,478
Australia


« Reply #50 on: October 20, 2004, 10:26:41 PM »

My prediction-the three states that'll really determine it are WI, OH and WI. If Bush wins OH, he wins; if Bush wins NM and WI, he wins; if Bush win OH and NM he wins, if Bush wins OH and WI he wins (4 possibilities).

If Kerry wins Ohio and Wisconsin he wins; if Kerry wins Ohio and New Mexico he wins (2 options).

Therefore, a 66% chance of Bush winning (and I predict NM will go Kerry, WI will go Bush and OH will bve very close-but for Bush)
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Platypus
hughento
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,478
Australia


« Reply #51 on: October 29, 2004, 11:07:26 PM »

I am fairly confident the upper midwest will stick together again-it has since 1988. Wisconsin, Iowa and Minnesota will almost certainly vote together, in my opinion. Unfortunately, it's slightly more likely that they'll all vote for Bush then Kerry, but it's definently not by a large amount.
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Platypus
hughento
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,478
Australia


« Reply #52 on: October 31, 2004, 12:34:15 AM »



Probably my final, depending on events over the next bit.
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Platypus
hughento
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,478
Australia


« Reply #53 on: October 31, 2004, 12:37:21 AM »

If the upper midwest IS going to split, this is probably how.
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Platypus
hughento
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,478
Australia


« Reply #54 on: February 26, 2005, 05:02:56 AM »

btw, Godwin's law came into effect via Opebo, it seems.
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