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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 797533 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #700 on: January 17, 2004, 07:41:24 pm »

Yes, definitely. I have seen some statistics from a Swedish group mail-thingy I was on last year, and during the last month before election day the number of messages went sky-high.
It's gonna be a fun ride.

How do you think replies on this thread will trend after the election?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #701 on: January 17, 2004, 07:47:01 pm »

Yes, definitely. I have seen some statistics from a Swedish group mail-thingy I was on last year, and during the last month before election day the number of messages went sky-high.
It's gonna be a fun ride.

How do you think replies on this thread will trend after the election?

Considering the fact that we're plitical junkies? It will remain high after the election to discuss the aftermath, the recounts, etc. and then it will go down around the time of New Year. Then as new elections approaches it will start going up again. But with no major US elections in 2005 there will be less activity that year.
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tweed
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« Reply #702 on: January 17, 2004, 07:51:56 pm »

Leip may lock this thread a few months after the 2004 election.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #703 on: January 17, 2004, 08:00:26 pm »

Leip may lock this thread a few months after the 2004 election.
Ah, I forgot about that. Yes, I kind of hope he does. Wink
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tweed
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« Reply #704 on: January 17, 2004, 08:04:23 pm »

It would be the logical thing to do,  to kind of archive the thread.
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Special K
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« Reply #705 on: January 17, 2004, 10:41:15 pm »



Bush v. Kerry

Bush gets 387 over Kerry's 151.  Just my prediction.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #706 on: January 18, 2004, 07:24:36 am »



Bush v. Kerry

Bush gets 387 over Kerry's 151.  Just my prediction.

That is really rough on the guy. I think he wouldn't do that bad. Why would he lose CAlifornia but win Michigan?
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #707 on: January 18, 2004, 09:01:59 am »

Kerry would win california and Pennsylvania, but lose Michigan and wisconsin.  He might take maine also.

I think Kerry actually might be a weaker candidate than Dean.
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Platypus
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« Reply #708 on: January 18, 2004, 05:48:11 pm »

Dean would raise attendance; many ABB people would turn out that wouldn't if it was Kerry or Clark or Edwards.

I think the most electable is Edwards; he might lose Oregon and Iowa but he would win Louisiana, Tennesse, and bring Arkansas, WV and Florida into play.

BTW, I agree with Miami. Kerry would still win CA, and I'd say Pennsylvania would be his too. I don't think he'd lose Michigan, but he might lose Wisconsin, and he'd win Maine.
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tweed
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« Reply #709 on: January 18, 2004, 05:53:42 pm »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 349 to Kerry 189.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #710 on: January 18, 2004, 05:54:26 pm »

Looking at that map it's hard to beliveve Kerry had 189...lol.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #711 on: January 18, 2004, 06:07:15 pm »

Looking at that map it's hard to beliveve Kerry had 189...lol.

You mean b/c the Red area looks so small? Smiley
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #712 on: January 18, 2004, 06:32:58 pm »

Looking at that map it's hard to beliveve Kerry had 189...lol.

You mean b/c the Red area looks so small? Smiley
Yeah, all the Bush states that are large geographically are small population wise.
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John
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« Reply #713 on: January 18, 2004, 10:28:35 pm »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 349 to Kerry 189.
Nice Map you did a good Job on it
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #714 on: January 18, 2004, 10:37:28 pm »

Surely Kerry would win Washington?
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #715 on: January 18, 2004, 10:41:07 pm »

Nice Map you did a good Job on it
Thank you.  Tell god that I made a nice map, alright?

It is not a sure thing that Kerry would win Washington.
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #716 on: January 18, 2004, 10:51:52 pm »

OK, maybe not surely.

But he'd have a better chance at it then Bush, imo.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #717 on: January 18, 2004, 10:57:00 pm »

OK, maybe not surely.

But he'd have a better chance at it then Bush, imo.
I think Bush would take it becuase Kerry wouldn't energize the urban liberal base in Seattle, which is the state's lone Democratic stronghold.

What does imo mean?
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Nation
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« Reply #718 on: January 18, 2004, 11:05:04 pm »

I think its "in my opinion"

And it'd take a pretty crappy campaign to lose Washington. . .imo
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #719 on: January 18, 2004, 11:08:07 pm »

yes, in my opinion.

imho means the same, with "humble" added.

I agree with of_this; Kerry would have to screw up to lose Washington, it has high turnouts.
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agcatter
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« Reply #720 on: January 19, 2004, 03:27:14 am »

Of course, Dukakis was able to carry Washington.  I guess if I had to guess I'd say Kerry would probably have the edge.  It's only a guess as a have a VERY superficial knowledge of Wahington state politics.
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tweed
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« Reply #721 on: January 19, 2004, 01:53:15 pm »

I don't know all that much about Washington state either, but I do know the only liberal area is the greater Seattle area, as you go further west in the less populted areas it becomes more conservative.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #722 on: January 19, 2004, 02:58:07 pm »

I don't know all that much about Washington state either, but I do know the only liberal area is the greater Seattle area, as you go further west in the less populted areas it becomes more conservative.

That's the case everywhere isn't it?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #723 on: January 19, 2004, 03:01:15 pm »

Basically the coastal parts of Washington vote Democrat while the interior votes GOP.
There are exceptions: Thomas Foley represented the area around Spokane (eastern Washington) for a long time until he went down in 1994.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #724 on: January 19, 2004, 03:28:00 pm »

Does Spokane vote democratic?  I don't know exactly where Spokane is located so the county maps don't help me out.
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