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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 810726 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #725 on: January 19, 2004, 03:45:22 pm »

Spokane County voted for Bush in 2000, but voted Democrat in 1992 and 1996 and almost did in 1988.
It's on the WA-ID border.
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tweed
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« Reply #726 on: January 19, 2004, 03:46:01 pm »

Spokane County voted for Bush in 2000, but voted Democrat in 1992 and 1996 and almost did in 1988.
It's on the WA-ID border.
Okay.  thanks.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #727 on: January 19, 2004, 07:51:20 pm »


Aniston? Come on. Go with Katie Holmes or Jessica Alba or somesuch. Aniston?
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #728 on: January 19, 2004, 07:54:29 pm »



Bush v. Clark

Bush wins 328 over Clark's 210.  I know, I know...Arkansas goes Rep.  I just really don't see Clark being able to win over his home state.  I was actually going to put California as a toss-up b/c all recent polls in the state have Bush leading every Dem candidate.

That's about what I predict regardless of whom the Dems nominate.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #729 on: January 19, 2004, 07:56:22 pm »

California should come around to the Dems eventually. Let's keep in mind that most undecideds break against the incumbent, so Bush will most likely do worse in some states than current polls predict. But I agree that Clark no longer looks like a strong candidate.

He's into time travel. Maybe he can go back and unsay all the dumb things he's said.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #730 on: January 19, 2004, 07:57:07 pm »
« Edited: January 19, 2004, 07:57:26 pm by NHPolitico »


CA probably will go Dem but it will be close.

That is enough to just crap all over the Dems chances.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #731 on: January 19, 2004, 07:58:28 pm »

My prediction was Dean/Edwards

New England solidly Democrat (although Maine and NH will be close)

Tennessee will be very close, i think it'll go for Democrats b/c of Edwards
Nevada will go Democrat...just because Tongue

NM will be a tossup, i'm going with the incumbent (Democrat)

Ohio will be close, just in favour of Bush

WV...I think it'll be seeing alot of campaigning from Dean; it's a democrat state that has lost its way recently. He'll bring it back to the fold.

Optomistic, yes; but absolutely possible.

(BTW, of the tossups, 20 evs go to Republicans (Ohio), and 21 to Democrats (TN, NM, WV) so it's not an unfair distribution



Edwards doesn't help fill the gravitas hole for Dean.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #732 on: January 19, 2004, 08:01:32 pm »

My prediction was Dean/Edwards

New England solidly Democrat (although Maine and NH will be close)

Tennessee will be very close, i think it'll go for Democrats b/c of Edwards
Nevada will go Democrat...just because Tongue

NM will be a tossup, i'm going with the incumbent (Democrat)

Ohio will be close, just in favour of Bush

WV...I think it'll be seeing alot of campaigning from Dean; it's a democrat state that has lost its way recently. He'll bring it back to the fold.

Optomistic, yes; but absolutely possible.

(BTW, of the tossups, 20 evs go to Republicans (Ohio), and 21 to Democrats (TN, NM, WV) so it's not an unfair distribution



You also give the Dems other tossups: NH, Maine and Delaware. Wait a minute! DELAWARE? Smiley

Anyway, you marked those as tossups, so it's a 32-20 to the Dems.

Of course, Delaware. Congressman Mike Castle will deliver the goods. He's as money as Tom Brady, baby!

: )
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #733 on: January 19, 2004, 10:10:38 pm »

Leip may lock this thread a few months after the 2004 election.

For our grandkids to look at?
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #734 on: January 19, 2004, 10:11:09 pm »
« Edited: January 19, 2004, 10:13:28 pm by NHPolitico »

Leip may lock this thread a few months after the 2004 election.

Congrats on Edwards' strong finish, btw!
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #735 on: January 19, 2004, 10:12:32 pm »

Kerry would win california and Pennsylvania, but lose Michigan and wisconsin.  He might take maine also.

I think Kerry actually might be a weaker candidate than Dean.

That is interesting about PA.  Will the Heinz connection help him there?  His stepson does a freakin' great Schwarzenegger impression for an amateur, by the way.
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Platypus
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« Reply #736 on: January 19, 2004, 10:20:09 pm »

As an Iowan to a New Hampsh**te, I pass on the mantle of the "local" Smiley

Have 'fun'
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #737 on: January 19, 2004, 10:40:28 pm »

As an Iowan to a New Hampsh**te, I pass on the mantle of the "local" Smiley

Have 'fun'

I met Bill Bradley at work in 2000. Pretty neat.
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Platypus
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« Reply #738 on: January 19, 2004, 11:02:05 pm »

Ah, but did Carol Moseley-Braun go to your school?

Tongue
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Gustaf
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« Reply #739 on: January 20, 2004, 12:52:16 am »


Aniston? Come on. Go with Katie Holmes or Jessica Alba or somesuch. Aniston?

Don't start this up again... Wink
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #740 on: January 20, 2004, 06:37:25 am »

Ah, but did Carol Moseley-Braun go to your school?

Tongue

New Hampshire hasn't seen much of the black candidates, actually.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #741 on: January 20, 2004, 07:12:04 am »

Michigan Voters give the President a 63% Approval rating and 77% Approve Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm (+/- 5% according to a Detroit News 1/19/2004 poll).
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #742 on: January 20, 2004, 10:23:46 am »

I just heard ESPN Radio/ESPN-TV's PTI host Tony Kornheiser say when a candidate has a speech like Dean's it's time for every responsible adult to say, "check please." He said (jokingly), maybe Dean said "How-weeeee" at the end of his geography lesson. Regardless, he thought it was off the deep end.

Don Imus made great fun of it, too.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #743 on: January 20, 2004, 11:59:42 am »

From Roll Call via Drudge...

"Here's a harrowing pair of facts for Democrats: In 60 years, no Democrat has ever won the presidency without carrying the youth vote. And right now President Bush's approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds is 62 percent, higher than his nationwide rating. Top Republican strategists admit that the youth vote is fluid, but right now the trends are all in their direction, which they hope is a harbinger not only for 2004, but also a possible longer-term party realignment."

A Bush campaign official said, "It's called the theory of political socialization. Who are the most Democratic people in America? It's the over-65 age group. Why? Because the two presidents they knew best were Franklin Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover. And who are the most Republican? People in their 40s, who came of age in the last two years of Jimmy Carter and the first two years of Ronald Reagan. If your politics were being formed during the last two years of Bill Clinton and the first two years of George Bush, there's a fairly good chance that we'll have your support."

Kondracke writes, "It seems impossible that a generation reared on free-love television and rap music, a generation far more tolerant of ethnic diversity and homosexuality than its elders, could support the GOP, whose base in anchored in the religious right. In fact, Democratic theorists such as Ruy Teixeira, John Judis and Stan Greenberg look upon the expanded role of minorities, cosmopolitan regions and diversity-minded young people to produce an 'emerging Democratic majority' through the force of demography.

"But, at the moment, the numbers support the view of GOP leaders that young people are trending Republican because they like Bush."

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Gustaf
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« Reply #744 on: January 20, 2004, 12:51:38 pm »

I just heard ESPN Radio/ESPN-TV's PTI host Tony Kornheiser say when a candidate has a speech like Dean's it's time for every responsible adult to say, "check please." He said (jokingly), maybe Dean said "How-weeeee" at the end of his geography lesson. Regardless, he thought it was off the deep end.

Don Imus made great fun of it, too.

I have to see this speech I keep hearing so much about! Was it really that bad? What did Dean do exactly?
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #745 on: January 20, 2004, 02:31:46 pm »


I have to see this speech I keep hearing so much about! Was it really that bad? What did Dean do exactly?

This link should work...

http://66.230.216.3/011904/caucus_dean_011904_300.rm

Here's a report:

The speech didn't start badly. Although Dean appeared oddly exuberant after what was an extraordinarily disappointing finish, that might easily be attributed to a politician's desire to put a publicly positive face on bad news. "You know something?" Dean asked his fans. "If you had told us one year ago that we were going to come in third in Iowa, we would have given anything for that."

That was a perfectly reasonable gloss for a candidate to put on unfavorable election results. But Dean quickly took on a red-faced, shouting, teeth-baring, air-punching demeanor unlike any of his performances during the campaign.

"Not only are we going to New Hampshire," he said, his voice rising. "We're going to South Carolina and Arizona and North Dakota and New Mexico, and we're going to California and Texas and New York. And we're going to South Dakota and Oregon and Washington and Michigan. And then we're going to Washington, D.C. to take back the White House."

Then he let out a strange, extended, yelp that seemed to come from deep within him: "YAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!"

Dean resumed his roll of states. "We will not give up! We will not give up in New Hampshire! We will not give up in South Carolina! We will not give up in Arizona or New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Dakota, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan! We will not quit now or ever! We'll earn our country back for ordinary Americans!"

As the crowd began to applaud, Dean recited still more states. "And we're going to win in Massachusetts! And North Carolina! And Missouri! And Arkansas! And Connecticut! And New York! And Ohio!" -- the home states of Dean's rivals for the Democratic nomination.

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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #746 on: January 20, 2004, 04:37:09 pm »

UPDATED Edwards v. bush:


Edwards 325 to Bush 213

Call me crazy, but I watched Edwards on Larry King lasy night, and I realized how well he connected to people.  He can and will do this.
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mossy
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« Reply #747 on: January 20, 2004, 04:51:25 pm »

They certainly played the ending of his speech enough times.....when seeing a little more, it just seemed to me very typical of a windup of a hot sermon, (revivalist style close--Dean seemed to enjoying it and laughing at himself.)  But the play (just a snippet) it's been given is a reach.
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tweed
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« Reply #748 on: January 20, 2004, 04:53:23 pm »

Edwards is the only Democrat running a positive campaign, and it is only now starting to pay off.

JE2K4
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #749 on: January 20, 2004, 05:12:54 pm »

Edwards is the only Democrat running a positive campaign, and it is only now starting to pay off.

JE2K4

With the success Bush had, I'm surprised more Dems didn't choose that path. Edwards was able to do it because everyone else wasn't.  They could have put him away by now.
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