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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #750 on: January 20, 2004, 05:14:13 pm »

Edwards is the only Democrat running a positive campaign, and it is only now starting to pay off.

JE2K4

With the success Bush had, I'm surprised more Dems didn't choose that path. Edwards was able to do it because everyone else wasn't.  They could have put him away by now.
Do you think Edwards can beat GWB?
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Platypus
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« Reply #751 on: January 20, 2004, 06:05:58 pm »

I think Edwards can win; but Bush would have the better chance of the two. that said, Edwards would probably make it alot closer then Dean, Kerry or Clark.
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emergingDmajority1
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« Reply #752 on: January 20, 2004, 06:50:35 pm »

I'd love to see Edwards as our candidate and I believe he can beat bush, but I don't think JE or any other Dem can swamp Bush 325-213

I think it'll be the 2000 map all over again with Edwards picking up New Hampshire and Missouri to squeek out a 275-263 victory
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #753 on: January 20, 2004, 08:49:01 pm »

I'd love to see Edwards as our candidate and I believe he can beat bush, but I don't think JE or any other Dem can swamp Bush 325-213

I think it'll be the 2000 map all over again with Edwards picking up New Hampshire and Missouri to squeek out a 275-263 victory
Edwards wold definitely sway WV to us...populism wins.
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agcatter
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« Reply #754 on: January 20, 2004, 09:22:16 pm »

Well, now that Dean has gone bye bye, I'm hoping for General Clark as an opponent.  He's at least as nutty as Dean.  Alas, we probably won't get that lucky.  That would be too good to be true.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #755 on: January 20, 2004, 09:25:48 pm »

Well, now that Dean has gone bye bye, I'm hoping for General Clark as an opponent.  He's at least as nutty as Dean.  Alas, we probably won't get that lucky.  That would be too good to be true.
It will be Edwards or Kerry.
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agcatter
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« Reply #756 on: January 20, 2004, 09:29:36 pm »

Yep.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #757 on: January 20, 2004, 11:42:42 pm »

Agcat- we need your support.  Could you check out the IMPORTANT Thread registrationa dn simply post "I register" to register as  voter for the fantasy elections, thanks.


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jravnsbo
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« Reply #758 on: January 21, 2004, 12:04:36 am »

very encouraging news from Michigan!


Michigan Voters give the President a 63% Approval rating and 77% Approve Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm (+/- 5% according to a Detroit News 1/19/2004 poll).
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #759 on: January 21, 2004, 12:06:01 am »

drove Gov now President Bush around IA for a day during 2000 campaign.

Oh and met Bush 41 when he was VP and came to my high school.


As an Iowan to a New Hampsh**te, I pass on the mantle of the "local" Smiley

Have 'fun'

I met Bill Bradley at work in 2000. Pretty neat.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #760 on: January 21, 2004, 06:48:48 am »

drove Gov now President Bush around IA for a day during 2000 campaign.

Oh and met Bush 41 when he was VP and came to my high school.


As an Iowan to a New Hampsh**te, I pass on the mantle of the "local" Smiley

Have 'fun'

I met Bill Bradley at work in 2000. Pretty neat.

That's cool.  I worked on John Sununu's campaign and he called me personally to thank me after he won.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #761 on: January 21, 2004, 07:36:01 am »

I wondered about how much the individual states really swung last time around (correcting for the effects of Perot and Nader and for the slight left swing nationally) and what would happen if they just continue to behave that way and came up with the following:
I added up the lead of Rep+Reform+Libertarian over Dem+Green for every state for 96 and 2000.
I compared the change with the 2.12%point swing nationally.
Me, In, Mn, Ia, Mo, ND, SD, Mt, Id, Wy, NM, Ut and all southern states except De, Md, DC, Va and Fl swung to the right, the other 26+1 to the left if compared with the national average. The strongest swings are in Ar (understandably) for the Reps and in Ct for the Dems. The Republican outliers are much stronger than the Democratic ones by the way. Ct swung leftwards by 9.76% Seven Pro-Rep states did more (ND, SD, WV, AR, LA, TX, WY).
Then I went on and made a prediction based on that for 2004. For simplicity's sake I presumed left-wing and right-wing equal and dems and reps equal. (The third parties won't matter much in 2004) So I let every state swing 2.46% to the right (the 2000 left lead) and then swing against that by as much as in 2000. Obviously the results become slightly nonsensical in states that swung a whole lot, or that had favorite-sons in 96 or 2000 (Ar,Ks,Tx). But for the "normal" states it's a worthy method I think.
So here's my findings: The Dems gain Florida and lose Iowa and New Mexico (which would make them win nationally, 275-263).
The most marginal states will be Florida (0,19% lead), New Hampshire (0,61), Wisconsin (0,77), Nevada (0,99), New Mexico (1,86), Iowa (2,42-quite large actually), Minnesota (3,13), and Ohio (3,74).
I was surprised by how safe Pennsylvania looks - an 8,82 Dem lead.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #762 on: January 21, 2004, 08:02:09 am »

I bet that is Lewis Toldheim's last post.  People whose useernames are their actal name don't last that long, with the exception of Zeigermann.

Anyway, most of the states that swung right went GOP anyway, and most that swung left went Dem anyway.

Also, add Constitution to the right-wing paties, and add the socialist parties tot he dem side for a more accurate prediction.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #763 on: January 21, 2004, 08:15:10 am »

It's not my real name, it's actually a pseudonym I stole from a French cartoon artist...
But I recognize what you say as valid. I just saved myself the bother of checking through all the other and write-in candidates.
And that the Rep places trended more Rep and the Dem places more Dem is really rather frightening. It means increased polarization, right?
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #764 on: January 21, 2004, 09:01:30 am »

It's not my real name, it's actually a pseudonym I stole from a French cartoon artist...



About the only soft spot I have for the French might be their animation-- Babar, Tin-Tin, Madeline, Triplettes... I guess maybe you could stick Amelie there, too, I suppose.
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opebo
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« Reply #765 on: January 21, 2004, 09:10:19 am »

I think it'll be the 2000 map all over again with Edwards picking up New Hampshire and Missouri to squeek out a 275-263 victory

No, Edwards wouldn't pick up Missouri or New Hampshire.  What he might pick up would be West Virginia, and possible one or more of Arkansas, Louisana, Florida.  In descending order of likelihood.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #766 on: January 21, 2004, 11:16:07 am »

It's not my real name, it's actually a pseudonym I stole from a French cartoon artist...



About the only soft spot I have for the French might be their animation-- Babar, Tin-Tin, Madeline, Triplettes... I guess maybe you could stick Amelie there, too, I suppose.

Tintin is Belgian, like most French-speaking cartoons. I believe Lucky Luke comes from Belgium as well.
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Mort from NewYawk
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« Reply #767 on: January 21, 2004, 11:52:07 am »

I wondered about how much the individual states really swung last time around (correcting for the effects of Perot and Nader and for the slight left swing nationally) and what would happen if they just continue to behave that way and came up with the following:
I added up the lead of Rep+Reform+Libertarian over Dem+Green for every state for 96 and 2000.
I compared the change with the 2.12%point swing nationally.
Me, In, Mn, Ia, Mo, ND, SD, Mt, Id, Wy, NM, Ut and all southern states except De, Md, DC, Va and Fl swung to the right, the other 26+1 to the left if compared with the national average. The strongest swings are in Ar (understandably) for the Reps and in Ct for the Dems. The Republican outliers are much stronger than the Democratic ones by the way. Ct swung leftwards by 9.76% Seven Pro-Rep states did more (ND, SD, WV, AR, LA, TX, WY).
Then I went on and made a prediction based on that for 2004. For simplicity's sake I presumed left-wing and right-wing equal and dems and reps equal. (The third parties won't matter much in 2004) So I let every state swing 2.46% to the right (the 2000 left lead) and then swing against that by as much as in 2000. Obviously the results become slightly nonsensical in states that swung a whole lot, or that had favorite-sons in 96 or 2000 (Ar,Ks,Tx). But for the "normal" states it's a worthy method I think.
So here's my findings: The Dems gain Florida and lose Iowa and New Mexico (which would make them win nationally, 275-263).
The most marginal states will be Florida (0,19% lead), New Hampshire (0,61), Wisconsin (0,77), Nevada (0,99), New Mexico (1,86), Iowa (2,42-quite large actually), Minnesota (3,13), and Ohio (3,74).
I was surprised by how safe Pennsylvania looks - an 8,82 Dem lead.
So, you're trying to see where states were moving 1996-2000 after discounting the national swing, and predict 2004 on that basis?

If so, would the validity of that method increase if you went back to say, 1988? Then you could plot the swings and create a 16-year trendline of political leaning for each state.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #768 on: January 21, 2004, 12:12:25 pm »

It's not my real name, it's actually a pseudonym I stole from a French cartoon artist...



About the only soft spot I have for the French might be their animation-- Babar, Tin-Tin, Madeline, Triplettes... I guess maybe you could stick Amelie there, too, I suppose.

Tintin is Belgian, like most French-speaking cartoons. I believe Lucky Luke comes from Belgium as well.

But I think a French company made the animated shows of it.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #769 on: January 21, 2004, 12:16:31 pm »

It's not my real name, it's actually a pseudonym I stole from a French cartoon artist...



About the only soft spot I have for the French might be their animation-- Babar, Tin-Tin, Madeline, Triplettes... I guess maybe you could stick Amelie there, too, I suppose.

Tintin is Belgian, like most French-speaking cartoons. I believe Lucky Luke comes from Belgium as well.

But I think a French company made the animated shows of it.

I wouldn't know...it's hard to distingiush, since French is an official language in Belgium. It's funny though, that Hergé, the creator of Tintin, was Flemish, but still wrote in French.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #770 on: January 21, 2004, 10:28:25 pm »

I'm not making any more predictions until I am have some idea of who the Dem. nominee is going to be.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #771 on: January 21, 2004, 10:35:44 pm »

that could be a while, the dems don't know who it will be now.


I'm not making any more predictions until I am have some idea of who the Dem. nominee is going to be.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #772 on: January 21, 2004, 11:25:26 pm »

that could be a while, the dems don't know who it will be now.


I'm not making any more predictions until I am have some idea of who the Dem. nominee is going to be.

Exactly, that's why I'm not making any for the general election.  I predicted it would be BushvDean and Dean would get slaughtered, now there is a STRONG chance he may not tbe the nominee.  He still could be, but for now I'll hold judgment.
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opebo
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« Reply #773 on: January 22, 2004, 02:53:46 pm »

that could be a while, the dems don't know who it will be now.


I'm not making any more predictions until I am have some idea of who the Dem. nominee is going to be.

Exactly, that's why I'm not making any for the general election.  I predicted it would be BushvDean and Dean would get slaughtered, now there is a STRONG chance he may not tbe the nominee.  He still could be, but for now I'll hold judgment.

Alas, we Republicans are going to have to let go of our boy Dean.  It would've been lovely, but he's not going to make it.  In fact we'll be darn lucky if we get Kerry.  The worst one is Edwards, and as a pessimist, I would guess we'll get him.  He's beatable, as a left-wing trial lawyer, but his appearance and youth are all that will matter to an awfully lot of the emptier-headed voters.  But I'm still holding out hope for Kerry.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #774 on: January 22, 2004, 02:55:34 pm »

Wide open yet and My dream scenario was a slugfest with Dean winning it.  Well looks like they may slug it out a bit, dean looks weakened but will not go out quietly, he has 48 more states to shout out and head to! Smiley


that could be a while, the dems don't know who it will be now.


I'm not making any more predictions until I am have some idea of who the Dem. nominee is going to be.

Exactly, that's why I'm not making any for the general election.  I predicted it would be BushvDean and Dean would get slaughtered, now there is a STRONG chance he may not tbe the nominee.  He still could be, but for now I'll hold judgment.

Alas, we Republicans are going to have to let go of our boy Dean.  It would've been lovely, but he's not going to make it.  In fact we'll be darn lucky if we get Kerry.  The worst one is Edwards, and as a pessimist, I would guess we'll get him.  He's beatable, as a left-wing trial lawyer, but his appearance and youth are all that will matter to an awfully lot of the emptier-headed voters.  But I'm still holding out hope for Kerry.
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