2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[opebo]

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

He doesn't care. In his f***** up mind ALL Americans are "The Enemy"...

It depends if he wants us to roll over now, or if he wants to fight it out.  Kerry would roll over Spanish style, Bush would fight.  Which does UBL want?

[opebo]

He wants to set up an Islamic Caliphate. And kill everyone else.

So Kerry would be preferred over Bush.

[opebo]

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

He doesn't care. In his f***** up mind ALL Americans are "The Enemy"...

It depends if he wants us to roll over now, or if he wants to fight it out.  Kerry would roll over Spanish style, Bush would fight.  Which does UBL want?

Kerry would not roll over, it'd both be stupid and undoable in the current political climate.

Relative to Bush, he would roll over - its what his supporters want.

[opebo]

We all need to ask the question, who does UBL want to win the election?

He doesn't care. In his f***** up mind ALL Americans are "The Enemy"...

It depends if he wants us to roll over now, or if he wants to fight it out.  Kerry would roll over Spanish style, Bush would fight.  Which does UBL want?

Kerry would not roll over, it'd both be stupid and undoable in the current political climate.

Relative to Bush, he would roll over - its what his supporters want.

Relative to Bush, lol...and he won't care that much about his 'supporters', it's the swing voters who matter. The guy is not an idiot, I think he'll do what needs to be done. And anyway I don't think there'll be much need of invading countries again, for the purpose of terrorism, for some time to come.

No, he'll just do some very minimalist 'criminal justice' type efforts, which of course will do nothing at all.  

As for invasions, they're one of many tools that will have to be employed in the future - this is all out war.

[opebo]

On my personal chart, a 'generic Democrat' is frightfully far to the left.  I only find people like Zell Miller, Breux, Leiberman, and a few others at all comparable with the political center of the country.

[opebo]

That is one map of wishful thinking khirkhib.  Richardson is not going to bring along CO, AZ, and NV - only NM.  And LA is solid Bush.  FL could go either way but I'm guessing GOP and I don't think Richardson makes a difference there.

[opebo]

That's much better Miami1027 but I still don't see the much hoped for Southwestern shift in the polls - CO and AZ look strong GOP, and NV leans that way.
Also we'll be lucky to get Michigan.  Oregon is more likely.

[opebo]

FL could go either way but I'm guessing GOP and I don't think Richardson makes a difference there.

I don't know why you can say that Richardson would make a difference with Hispanics in the Southwest but not in Florida.

Because I think he would make much less difference to Hispanics in Florida than in the Southwest.  These are two very different groups of hispanics.  Besides, as I said above he wouldn't swing AZ, NV, or CO anyway, just NM.

[opebo]

Out of your seven 'tossup' states, I think all are leaning very narrowly to Bush, and I suspect he'll win them all.  On the other hand I would include Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota as tossups.

[opebo]

Out of your seven 'tossup' states, I think all are leaning very narrowly to Bush, and I suspect he'll win them all.  On the other hand I would include Iowa, Oregon, and Minnesota as tossups.

I, of course, think all 7 tossups will go to Kerry, but hey, we're all entitled to a little wishful thinking!    Within reason, of course.

Iowa, Minnesota and Oregon are defintely not tossups.  It's possible they'll switch back to Bush, but not very likely.

What're you basing this on?  Current polls?

Actually I think if Bush wins he's likely to get IA, MN and OR, and if Kerry wins he's likely to get most of your seven tossups.  In other words the winner will get most of all ten.

[opebo]

Tennessee is solid Bush.

[opebo]

It has a very strong Republican edge.  This means that if Kerry spends here, Bush will counter that and make Kerry's spending almost useless.

It's probably more likely to go for Bush than Kerry, but it's hard to be certain...
Basically if rural Mid TN can outvote rural East TN Kerry wins. If not Bush wins.
How many swing voters exist in TN?
4? Maybe 5?

Aside from the fact that I think TN leans heavily Republican in any election, its hard to imagine any Tennesseans, even these rural mid-state ones, being particularly eager to vote for a Northeastern liberal.

[opebo]

Aside from the fact that I think TN leans heavily Republican in any election,

Since when? TN is close at most levels.

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But they [people in rural Mid TN] will vote for Kerry anyway... he's got a big "D" next to his name... East TN is the same but GOP...
If either candidate got under 45% I'd be suprised...

The state has two GOP senators.  Its a lot like Missouri - close, but definitely tips towards conservatism.  It has more Dem Representatives than we do, but votes slightly more GOP presidentially.

Republican presidential candidates usually win from 45-55% of the vote in TN, while Democrats have not broken 50% since Jimmy Carter in 1976.  So the state is clearly a strong GOP lean.

[opebo]

The state has two GOP senators.  Its a lot like Missouri - close, but definitely tips towards conservatism.  It has more Dem Representatives than we do, but votes slightly more GOP presidentially.

Republican presidential candidates usually win from 45-55% of the vote in TN, while Democrats have not broken 50% since Jimmy Carter in 1976.  So the state is clearly a strong GOP lean.

You said it was "heavily Republican", a statement that is untrue.
It's not a good idea to generalise about a state as divided as Tennessee... some of it is extremly conservative, some of it is extremly populist...
---
BTW, although it currently has two GOP Senators, Frist is retiring in 2006 and the Dems have a good chance at picking up the seat (hopefully with Harold Ford jr)... and Lamar Alexander is a "wet" (ie: moderate. The phrase is from the UK) Republican.

Point taken - I overstated the case.  I stand by the strong lean case I made above.  A more interesting question might be - which way is it trending?  I say gradually more GOP.

[opebo]

I haven't really been watching all the Senate races, I'm just going off of RightWingNut's predictions in the Senate prediction thread.  And he's Republican!

Supposedly.

[opebo]

That is a valid point.  There is alot of travel between the states.  Maybe the people of NH will know Kerry better then, and that is worse for him.  I still think Bush wins NH.

Good point.  A lot of people in NH are escapees from Taxachusetts.  They moved to get away from the likes of Kerry and Kennedy.

[opebo]

No, they dont , but they still associate their high taxes with all of their elected officials, fair or not.

This is so untrue.

People associate high taxes with Democrats and low taxes with Republicans, its that simple.  Its also highly accurate.

[opebo]

The only way Bush could possibly have a shot at NY is if it had been 9-11-04 instead of 9-11-01.

Well, we'll see.  

[opebo]

My new one:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=3536

Bush 275, Kerry 263.

Nice one.  Poor Pennsylvania is an island in this one.  Scary.

[opebo]

My new one:

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=3536

Bush 275, Kerry 263.

Nice one.  Poor Pennsylvania is an island in this one.  Scary.

That was what NH is known for!

Well at least you guys aren't landlocked.

[opebo]

State's Rights, who is that hot off-road girl in your picture?

[opebo]

Yep! No about it nothing but from me!

Other than Shania Twain, I dislike country singers.

Country music used to be great stuff, about two generations ago.

[opebo]

Someone claimed here that NJ is a tossup state. The fact is that NJ is super-safe for Kerry. Bush+Buchannan got there only 40.3% in 2000.
VA, on the other hand might become tied, since Bush got there 52.5% in 2000 and the Reps are in a slow, but constant decline in that state.

Yes, Bush will lose New Jersey but he will get more than the 40.3% mentioned above.  I'd guess around 46-47% or so.

[opebo]

"Yes, Bush will lose New Jersey but he will get more than the 40.3% mentioned above.  I'd guess around 46-47% or so"

The matter of the fact is that Dem states become more Dem and Rep states become more Rep.

You can see this in western states like UT, ID, WY, ND, SD, NE as well as TX. On the other hand RI, MA, NY, CT, NJ become more and more Dem. The Deep South: GA, AL, MS, NC, SC are more or less stable with around 55%-56% to the Reps.

There are some movements: IA, WI, and MN are Dem states which are slowly moving toward the Reps. At this point MN still looks very safe for Kerry (depends on Nader)

FL, AZ, NH and VA are Rep states which are moving toward the Dems.

There is a reasonable chance that Kerry would win in NH and FL and lose IA and WI.

OH is stable around the 50:50 and totally unpredictable

My assessment/prediction is that not more then 4 or 5 states will vote differently than in 2000

IA is a GOP state moving towards the Dems.  MN has moved to the center but I don't think that it will go much farther right.  WI has been centrist and will continue to be so.

Iowa hasn't been a very GOP state for the last 25 years or so.

[opebo]

Bush: 279
Kerry: 259

Very nice - I'd call that Bush's minimum.