2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[jravnsbo]

he's just a taxachussetts liberal.  

1971 Kerry advocates cutting military spending while Vietnam War is still going on.

-1980's Kerry advocated a weaker CIA and voted in
1997 to cut intelligence spending yet criticizes the lack of
intelligence prior to September 11, 1991.

-1980's Kerry opposed the death penalty for terrorist who kill Americans but then criticizes Dean in Iowa for questioning whether Sadaam should receive the death
penalty; "What were you thinking?"

 -1990's Kerry favored government
grants to religion-based charities in oppostion to seperation of church and state.

-1991 Kerry voted against First Gulf War where
there was international agreement, yet favors 2003 Iraq War where  there was no international coalition.

-1994 Kerry opposes raising the minimum wage.

-1996 Kerry votes against Farm Bill.

-1996 Kerry votes against Balance Budget Bill.

-1996 Kerry votes against Small Business
Regulatory Reform Bill

-1996 Kerry votes against Federal Grasslands
Management Bill

-1997 Kerry voted to raise Medicare premiums.

-2003 Kerry votes for Patriot Act

A long record of votes. I even heard he is the liberal senator of Mass. witha 93% liberal voting record to only 88% for Kennedy. Plus I know the people will love seeing those 2 on stage together all the time.  Kennedy and Kerry- what a combination.

[jravnsbo]

maybe you posted as I did, but yes He is more liberal than Ted and I ppointed out a few examples above.  Laughed when I heard it said Ted Kennedy was the conservative senator of Massachussetts.  never thought I would hear conservative and ted kennedy int he same sentence.

According to the National Journal, Kerry is to the left of ted Kennedy economically, equal with him socially, and to the right of him in foreign affairs.  Kerry does have a paper trail that Bush could use against him.

[jravnsbo]

Now this story fromt he WSJ today could sum up what a lot of vets thinka bout Kerry.  My father could have written this article.  he is a vetnam vet that was awarded the bronze star and he says kerry is a disgrace for turning his back on the men who were still over there fighting like my father.  Plus vets hate anythign to do with Jane "I am a traitor" Fonda.  My father would shut the TV off when she came on when I was growing up.

Conduct Unbecoming
Kerry doesn't deserve Vietnam vets' support.

BY STEPHEN SHERMAN
Monday, January 26, 2004 12:01 a.m. EST

A turning point may have been reached in the Iowa caucuses when Special Forces Lt. James Rassmann came forward to thank John Kerry for saving his life in Vietnam. Although Mr. Rassmann, like most of my veteran friends, is a Republican, he said that he'd vote for Mr. Kerry. I don't know if the incident influenced the caucus results. But I took special interest in the story because Jim served in my unit.

Service in Vietnam is an important credential to me. Many felt that such service was beneath them, and removed themselves from the manpower pool. That Mr. Kerry served at all is a reason for a bond with fellow veterans; that his service earned him a Bronze Star for Valor ("for personal bravery") and a Silver Star ("for gallantry") is even more compelling. Unfortunately, Mr. Kerry came home to Massachusetts, the one state George McGovern carried in 1972. He joined the Vietnam Veterans Against the War and emceed the Winter Soldier Investigation (both financed by Jane Fonda). Many veterans believe these protests led to more American deaths, and to the enslavement of the people on whose behalf the protests were ostensibly being undertaken. But being a take-charge kind of guy, Mr. Kerry became a leader in the VVAW and even testified before Congress on the findings of the Investigation, which he accepted at face value.

In his book "Stolen Valor," B.G. Burkett points out that Mr. Kerry liberally used phony veterans to testify to atrocities they could not possibly have committed. Mr. Kerry later threw what he represented as his awards at the Capitol in protest. But as the war diminished as a political issue, he left the VVAW, which was a bit too radical for his political future, and was ultimately elected to the Senate. After his awards were seen framed on his office wall, he claimed to have thrown away someone else's medals--so now he can reclaim his gallantry in Vietnam.

Mr. Kerry hasn't given me any reason to trust his judgment. As co-chairman of the Senate investigating committee, he quashed a revealing inquiry into the POW/MIA issue, and he supports trade initiatives with the Socialist Republic of Vietnam while blocking any legislation requiring Hanoi to adhere to basic human rights. I'm not surprised that there are veterans who support a VVAW activist, if only because there are so few fellow veterans in politics. Ideally, there'd be many more. If you are going to vote on military appropriations, it would be nice if you didn't disrespect the soldiers. Congress hasn't had the courage to declare war in more than 60 years, despite numerous instances in which we have sent our military in harm's way. Of all the "lessons of Vietnam," surely one is that America needs a leader capable of demonstrating in himself, and encouraging in others, the resolve to finish what they have collectively started.





But the bond between veterans has to be tempered in light of the individual's record. Just as Mr. Kerry threw away medals only to claim them back again, Sen. Kerry voted to take action against Iraq, but claims to take that vote back by voting against funding the result. So I can understand my former comrade-in-arms hugging the man who saved his life, but not the act of choosing him for president out of gratitude. And I would hate to see anyone giving Mr. Kerry a sympathy vote for president just because being a Vietnam veteran is "back in style."
Mr. Sherman was a first lieutenant with the U.S. Army Fifth Special Forces Group (Airborne) in Vietnam, 1967-68.

[jravnsbo]

but kerry also threw back his medals, (well somebody's calling them his at the time)  I know a lot of vets personally that are independant or democrats around my area that think his actions after he came home were reprehensible.

In fact they compare him to Pete Rose,  great on the field but dishonorable off.  Sounded about right to me.  They all said they'd support other Democrats but not him, they tend to more like Clark it seems.

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I believe that those who still feel we should have finished what we started in Vietnam are very likely to be voting Republican this fall.

Kerry's switch on Vietnam is not what the broad middle will take issue with, it's the failure of his positions and his personality to gel into a character that people will want as President.

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The GOP will likely use this -- VN protesting--but it should be remembered that this was a winner of the Silver Star and Purple Heart who was out of the service, and was protesting to get the rest out of VN.  If ever a person has earned the right to protest, it's a purple heart winner of that war, in my opinion.  I think Kerry is handlilng it right--"it was a bad time"....those who have seen "Born on the Fourth of July" will understand the anguish of knowing one got screwed by one's own government.

[jravnsbo]

I don't agree with the protests at all, but if he is going to use it he should also let it be known he turned his back on his country too when he got home.  That is my point.

but kerry also threw back his medals, (well somebody's calling them his at the time)  I know a lot of vets personally that are independant or democrats around my area that think his actions after he came home were reprehensible.

In fact they compare him to Pete Rose,  great on the field but dishonorable off.  Sounded about right to me.  They all said they'd support other Democrats but not him, they tend to more like Clark it seems.

[

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I believe that those who still feel we should have finished what we started in Vietnam are very likely to be voting Republican this fall.

Kerry's switch on Vietnam is not what the broad middle will take issue with, it's the failure of his positions and his personality to gel into a character that people will want as President.

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You know when one is protesting you want to make the most powerful statement you can--stuff you do for the cameras.  It strikes as as just a visual.  Actually, that he organized despite organized scorn from the LBJ WH that was out of control, and out of step with the country, and it was people like Kerry that eventually caused LBJ, a fellow dem,  to not run again.   I see those vets that protested publicly as sort of heros all over again.  And you know the rest.  The people turned to Nixon to get them out of VN.  And he did, and it was not easy.    

[jravnsbo]

plus fox always has the results first!

but I channel hop to the most interesting storylines.

[jravnsbo]

taxes will be a big factor in NH.  Bush is seeking to make his tax cuts permanent this year while Kerry wants to raise taxes.

Next unemployment in NH is VERY low compared to the nationa dn it has not been hit hard like other states, Nat avg is 5.7 , NH avg is 4.1.

Maccauliffe really does seem like a loose cannon sometimes.  The Dems seem to have a lot of those.

NH should go Republican reliably in November.

I've read that quite often now, but I really don't know what it's based on. For all I know and can see, if the Election is close, so is NH.

[jravnsbo]

but also NH hhas 2 GOP senators, winning smashingly over Gov Jean Shaheen in 2002.  They have a new GOP Gov in 2002.  Sen Gregg will win EASILY in 2004.  Plus as I said unemployment is down there compared to anywhere.  So economy is off the table as a negative for Bush and is in fact a positive.

OK, I will say this one last time. There are a number of lean Rep swing states, such as NV, AZ and NH, that will vote Republican IF the Republicans win. But if the elections is close they might go Dem. People miss the fact that the GOP has won 6 out of the last 9 elections, and 2 of them in a landslide. This leads people to look at some states as more Republican than they really are. If a New Englander is the nominee, like Kerry, and the election is competitive, then New Hampshire will be in play. It would still be more likely to go Republican, but it would essentially be a tossup.

taxes will be a big factor in NH.  Bush is seeking to make his tax cuts permanent this year while Kerry wants to raise taxes.

Next unemployment in NH is VERY low compared to the nationa dn it has not been hit hard like other states, Nat avg is 5.7 , NH avg is 4.1.

Maccauliffe really does seem like a loose cannon sometimes.  The Dems seem to have a lot of those.

NH should go Republican reliably in November.

I've read that quite often now, but I really don't know what it's based on. For all I know and can see, if the Election is close, so is NH.

[jravnsbo]

the difference is Louisiana is Conservative first.  All the dems that have won are moderate to conservative.  John Kerry doesn't stand a chance there.

Yeah, and Louisiana will vote Dem after the successes in their local elections, right?

but also NH hhas 2 GOP senators, winning smashingly over Gov Jean Shaheen in 2002.  They have a new GOP Gov in 2002.  Sen Gregg will win EASILY in 2004.  Plus as I said unemployment is down there compared to anywhere.  So economy is off the table as a negative for Bush and is in fact a positive.

OK, I will say this one last time. There are a number of lean Rep swing states, such as NV, AZ and NH, that will vote Republican IF the Republicans win. But if the elections is close they might go Dem. People miss the fact that the GOP has won 6 out of the last 9 elections, and 2 of them in a landslide. This leads people to look at some states as more Republican than they really are. If a New Englander is the nominee, like Kerry, and the election is competitive, then New Hampshire will be in play. It would still be more likely to go Republican, but it would essentially be a tossup.

taxes will be a big factor in NH.  Bush is seeking to make his tax cuts permanent this year while Kerry wants to raise taxes.

Next unemployment in NH is VERY low compared to the nationa dn it has not been hit hard like other states, Nat avg is 5.7 , NH avg is 4.1.

Maccauliffe really does seem like a loose cannon sometimes.  The Dems seem to have a lot of those.

NH should go Republican reliably in November.

I've read that quite often now, but I really don't know what it's based on. For all I know and can see, if the Election is close, so is NH.

[jravnsbo]

Ok we agree then, but I just thought NH was a poor example of that point.

My point was that local elections has very little impact on national elections. I agree that LA will not go Dem and NH most likely will go Rep, but I wouldn't base my predictions for them on the outcome of local elections.

the difference is Louisiana is Conservative first.  All the dems that have won are moderate to conservative.  John Kerry doesn't stand a chance there.

Yeah, and Louisiana will vote Dem after the successes in their local elections, right?

but also NH hhas 2 GOP senators, winning smashingly over Gov Jean Shaheen in 2002.  They have a new GOP Gov in 2002.  Sen Gregg will win EASILY in 2004.  Plus as I said unemployment is down there compared to anywhere.  So economy is off the table as a negative for Bush and is in fact a positive.

OK, I will say this one last time. There are a number of lean Rep swing states, such as NV, AZ and NH, that will vote Republican IF the Republicans win. But if the elections is close they might go Dem. People miss the fact that the GOP has won 6 out of the last 9 elections, and 2 of them in a landslide. This leads people to look at some states as more Republican than they really are. If a New Englander is the nominee, like Kerry, and the election is competitive, then New Hampshire will be in play. It would still be more likely to go Republican, but it would essentially be a tossup.

taxes will be a big factor in NH.  Bush is seeking to make his tax cuts permanent this year while Kerry wants to raise taxes.

Next unemployment in NH is VERY low compared to the nationa dn it has not been hit hard like other states, Nat avg is 5.7 , NH avg is 4.1.

Maccauliffe really does seem like a loose cannon sometimes.  The Dems seem to have a lot of those.

NH should go Republican reliably in November.

I've read that quite often now, but I really don't know what it's based on. For all I know and can see, if the Election is close, so is NH.

[jravnsbo]

winner!  ( just teasing, good discussion )

Well, we'll never really know that for sure, but if New Hampshire on election day is clearly more Republican than the national average, as compared to 2000, and there is no other significant factor explaining this, then, but only then!, will I concede that you were right and I wrong...

Ok we agree then, but I just thought NH was a poor example of that point.

My point was that local elections has very little impact on national elections. I agree that LA will not go Dem and NH most likely will go Rep, but I wouldn't base my predictions for them on the outcome of local elections.

the difference is Louisiana is Conservative first.  All the dems that have won are moderate to conservative.  John Kerry doesn't stand a chance there.

Yeah, and Louisiana will vote Dem after the successes in their local elections, right?

but also NH hhas 2 GOP senators, winning smashingly over Gov Jean Shaheen in 2002.  They have a new GOP Gov in 2002.  Sen Gregg will win EASILY in 2004.  Plus as I said unemployment is down there compared to anywhere.  So economy is off the table as a negative for Bush and is in fact a positive.

OK, I will say this one last time. There are a number of lean Rep swing states, such as NV, AZ and NH, that will vote Republican IF the Republicans win. But if the elections is close they might go Dem. People miss the fact that the GOP has won 6 out of the last 9 elections, and 2 of them in a landslide. This leads people to look at some states as more Republican than they really are. If a New Englander is the nominee, like Kerry, and the election is competitive, then New Hampshire will be in play. It would still be more likely to go Republican, but it would essentially be a tossup.

taxes will be a big factor in NH.  Bush is seeking to make his tax cuts permanent this year while Kerry wants to raise taxes.

Next unemployment in NH is VERY low compared to the nationa dn it has not been hit hard like other states, Nat avg is 5.7 , NH avg is 4.1.

Maccauliffe really does seem like a loose cannon sometimes.  The Dems seem to have a lot of those.

NH should go Republican reliably in November.

I've read that quite often now, but I really don't know what it's based on. For all I know and can see, if the Election is close, so is NH.

[jravnsbo]

I like your wit gustaf, funny post and still hedging your bet! :0

Yes, and I think muddled my post enough to allow me to weasel out, should New Hampshire mess up on election day...

[jravnsbo]

not that it matters much but lots of people are urging Osborne to run for Senate in 2006 vs Nelson, all that would change is D for R in leadership vote though as Nelson always is voting with GOP anyway.

Osborne would wina dn I doubt Nelson would run against him.

GOP: subscribes to SI.

I've heard things like that a lot, which I find interesting because I follow sports but certainly am very liberal. Does anybody have an explanation for why sports fans tend to vote more GOP than the national average?

And I also find it interesting that almost all former athletes/coaches who go into politics are Republicans. Sure Dems have Bill Bradley, but the GOP has Jim Bunning, J.C. Watts, Jim Ryun, Tom Osborne, etc.
-------
Oh, and Go Panthers!

[jravnsbo]

281 for your list.  but I doubt a number of them, VA being at the top of the list.

Here is my president forever prediction of a clark/edwards ticket...

DEMOCRAT
HA
WA
OR
CA
NV
IA
LA
IL
MI
OH
TN
WV
VA
DC
MD
DE
NJ
NY
CT
RI
MA
VT
NH
ME

with the rest republican. If anyone could be bothered to do an EV count, that would be cool. in the game there were still 160 undecideds (I only have the demo)

[jravnsbo]

Ohio just passed right to carry legislation and a bill against gay marriages.  A conservative trend?

Neat map Mort, but I think Bush wins Ohio.

[jravnsbo]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-kerry.htm

larry sabato has a new EC map out.

[jravnsbo]

? you looking at same map?  Ohio is probably Bush where as Arkansas is listed as more competitive.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-kerry.htm

larry sabato has a new EC map out.

I notice he has Ohio as 'probable for Bush'!

He only has New Hampshire changing hands...how is Arkansas "very competitive"??

Yeah its a bit odd.. I think Arkansas is even more solid Bush than Missouri.  And New Hampshire seems likely to go Republican.  Actualy its a pretty odd map, but I'd like to know why he think Ohio is solid.

It doesn't seem to trustworthy, imo. Also, he only has 2 categories, so he isn't saying that Ohio is solid, only that it isn't "very competitive", like Arkansas...

[jravnsbo]

Plus Taft is unpopular for RAISING TAXES.  Bush is again today campaigning how Dems ( like Kerry ) want to Raise taxes and not make tax cuts permanent.  If you let the tax cuts runout they will go UP!

Plus as I mentioned OH just became the 37th state to pass right to carry gun laws, again Kerry is ont he wrong side of this issue too.

Voinivich will win easily, plus I see 12-6 GOP lead in congressional seats there, so predominately a GOP leaning state.

Yep, WV is for Bush so Kerry doesn't win.

I think with high unEmp rates, a high muslim population, and an unpopular Republican Governor, Ohio will swing to Kerry.

Kerry being from MA hurts him in NH, if anything.

LA is more socially conservative than AR.

Cool map Miami, I agree with it except I think Bush will get Ohio.  He has a chance at MN and WI too but mainly I would make the case for OH - muslims are not a significant voting population, and unemployment will be coming down.  Its only high in the 'Democrat' areas of the state anyway - central and southwestern OH is doing great.  The state is also very socially conservative - the gay marriage issue alone will ensure Bush wins it.

[jravnsbo]

A whole lot of assuming going on there!

Coal district; 2 words-- energy Bill--lots of provisions there that will benefit WV.  Bush will sign it and if Dems block it again, Bush can still cam0aign that Dems are blocking it which they are!

Bush won WV by 40,000 votes (rounded to the nearest thousand), so a swing of 20,000 results in the Democrats winning WV.
Bush's support will have fallen a lot in the Northern Panhandle (the area around Wheeling), lets say that there is a swing of 3000 votes (a conservative estimate) towards Kerry.
As he is a Catholic make that 5000.

Lets assume that Bush loses 5000 votes across the rest of the state (another conservative estimate and assumes that Bush loses no votes around Charleston, which is unlikely).
That leaves Bush with a lead of 10,000.

I think that the Rahall machine can get an extra 10,000 votes in the Coal Distrist if they work hard at it (and Mollohan should be able to wring out at least another 1000 in the 1st district.

[jravnsbo]

No need to jinx him, Kerry WILL LOSE

Don't jinx KErry!   He will LOSE!!!!

[jravnsbo]

remember when I said befiore you guys needed to get out more?

Yes.  You jinxed it back.  You costJohn Kerry the presidency.

See!  I just unjinxed it.

[jravnsbo]

Don't you love people that don't agree with Dems are seen as uneducated.  NASCAR is growing and is popular otside of the south too.

What about the curse of the Caytona 500?

John Kerry: "we don;t need a president who says, gentlemen, start your engines. We need a president who says, America, start your economy!"

Cute. But the last thing you do when Bush has an apealing photo op to a swing demographic, is ridicule the event itself. Kerry needs a veep that will make people forget he's there, or else he's doomed.

He doesn't have a prayer at the south anyway.  Those fundamentalist NASCAR uneducated white men down there are stuck in the 14th century.

[jravnsbo]

Anyone have that website where the states were shown with reapportionment and then colored by how they voted in the past 4 elections?

It had the campaign signs of each ticket and all.

[jravnsbo]

oh yeah, lot sof people int he midwest I know , in IA, MN and SD, NE too love NASCAR, Oh add MO too.  

Don't you love people that don't agree with Dems are seen as uneducated.  NASCAR is growing and is popular otside of the south too.

It is?