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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 814064 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #775 on: January 22, 2004, 03:33:57 pm »

Dean is finished.  too bad guys, you might just have to work for this one.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #776 on: January 22, 2004, 03:52:40 pm »

Always thought we would have to.  That is why we have been registering 3 million people in key states, raising money like mad and I've been out registering real people also.


Dean is finished.  too bad guys, you might just have to work for this one.
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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #777 on: January 22, 2004, 04:25:58 pm »

Hello all:  

Its been quite some time since I last posted, and Kerry winning Iowa was a shock to me.  Anyway, two days ago I found an article from the Drudge Report that I think all of you should read so I shall post it here:

YOUNG VOTERS SAID TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS BUSH
 
Date:  Tuesday, January 20, 2004  

Morton Kondracke in fresh ROLL CALL:

"Here's a harrowing pair of facts for Democrats:  In 60 years, no Democrat has ever won the presidency without carrying the youth vote.  And right now President Bush's approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds is 62 percent, higher than his nationwide rating.  Top Republican strategists admit that the youth vote is fluid, but right now the trends are all in their direction, which they hope is a harbinger not only for 2004, but also a possible longer-term party realignment."

A Bush campaign official said, "Its called the history of political socialization.  Who are the most Democratic people in America? It's the over-65 age group.  Why? Because two presidents they knew best were Franklin Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover.  And who are the most Republican? People in their forties, who came of age in the last two years of Jimmy Carter and the first two years of Ronald Reagan.  If your politics were being formed during the last two years of Bill Clinton and the first two years of George Bush, there's a farily good chance that we'll have your support ."

Kondracke writes, "It seems impossible that a generation reared on free-love television and rap music, a generation far more tolerant of ethnic diversity and homosexuality than its elders, could support the GOP, whose base is anchored in the religious right.  In fact, Demcratic theorists such as Ruy Teixeira, John Judis, and Stan Greenburg look upon the expanded role of minorities, cosmopolitan regions, and diversity-minded young people to produce an 'emerging Democratic majority' through the force of demography.  

"But, at the moment, the numbers support the view of GOP leaders that young people are trending Republican because they like Bush."

END  - www. drudgereport.com/flash4.htm    

That's that.

I encourage any responses to this posting.  
Sleep tight and vote for Howard Dean.


So long from the Empire State.

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Gustaf
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« Reply #778 on: January 22, 2004, 04:29:55 pm »

Hello all:  

Its been quite some time since I last posted, and Kerry winning Iowa was a shock to me.  Anyway, two days ago I found an article from the Drudge Report that I think all of you should read so I shall post it here:

YOUNG VOTERS SAID TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS BUSH
 
Date:  Tuesday, January 20, 2004  

Morton Kondracke in fresh ROLL CALL:

"Here's a harrowing pair of facts for Democrats:  In 60 years, no Democrat has ever won the presidency without carrying the youth vote.  And right now President Bush's approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds is 62 percent, higher than his nationwide rating.  Top Republican strategists admit that the youth vote is fluid, but right now the trends are all in their direction, which they hope is a harbinger not only for 2004, but also a possible longer-term party realignment."

A Bush campaign official said, "Its called the history of political socialization.  Who are the most Democratic people in America? It's the over-65 age group.  Why? Because two presidents they knew best were Franklin Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover.  And who are the most Republican? People in their forties, who came of age in the last two years of Jimmy Carter and the first two years of Ronald Reagan.  If your politics were being formed during the last two years of Bill Clinton and the first two years of George Bush, there's a farily good chance that we'll have your support ."

Kondracke writes, "It seems impossible that a generation reared on free-love television and rap music, a generation far more tolerant of ethnic diversity and homosexuality than its elders, could support the GOP, whose base is anchored in the religious right.  In fact, Demcratic theorists such as Ruy Teixeira, John Judis, and Stan Greenburg look upon the expanded role of minorities, cosmopolitan regions, and diversity-minded young people to produce an 'emerging Democratic majority' through the force of demography.  

"But, at the moment, the numbers support the view of GOP leaders that young people are trending Republican because they like Bush."

END  - www. drudgereport.com/flash4.htm    

That's that.

I encourage any responses to this posting.  
Sleep tight and vote for Howard Dean.


So long from the Empire State.



Welcome back. Have you come a few hours earlier you might have helped us win the fantasy election... Sad

I would suggest another thread for this discussion, this is supposed to be about predictions, more precisely for the posted prediction maps. I will see you when you make a thread for this one! Smiley
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #779 on: January 22, 2004, 04:31:28 pm »

Yes I did see that on rollacall.  It follows upa  report that campuses are starting to trend GOP.  Excellent!

If people realize that the GOP is a good party, before they grow older and realize how much of their taxes the Democrats want to take, all the better.

Hello all:  

Its been quite some time since I last posted, and Kerry winning Iowa was a shock to me.  Anyway, two days ago I found an article from the Drudge Report that I think all of you should read so I shall post it here:

YOUNG VOTERS SAID TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS BUSH
 
Date:  Tuesday, January 20, 2004  

Morton Kondracke in fresh ROLL CALL:

"Here's a harrowing pair of facts for Democrats:  In 60 years, no Democrat has ever won the presidency without carrying the youth vote.  And right now President Bush's approval rating among 18- to 29-year-olds is 62 percent, higher than his nationwide rating.  Top Republican strategists admit that the youth vote is fluid, but right now the trends are all in their direction, which they hope is a harbinger not only for 2004, but also a possible longer-term party realignment."

A Bush campaign official said, "Its called the history of political socialization.  Who are the most Democratic people in America? It's the over-65 age group.  Why? Because two presidents they knew best were Franklin Roosevelt and Herbert Hoover.  And who are the most Republican? People in their forties, who came of age in the last two years of Jimmy Carter and the first two years of Ronald Reagan.  If your politics were being formed during the last two years of Bill Clinton and the first two years of George Bush, there's a farily good chance that we'll have your support ."

Kondracke writes, "It seems impossible that a generation reared on free-love television and rap music, a generation far more tolerant of ethnic diversity and homosexuality than its elders, could support the GOP, whose base is anchored in the religious right.  In fact, Demcratic theorists such as Ruy Teixeira, John Judis, and Stan Greenburg look upon the expanded role of minorities, cosmopolitan regions, and diversity-minded young people to produce an 'emerging Democratic majority' through the force of demography.  

"But, at the moment, the numbers support the view of GOP leaders that young people are trending Republican because they like Bush."

END  - www. drudgereport.com/flash4.htm    

That's that.

I encourage any responses to this posting.  
Sleep tight and vote for Howard Dean.


So long from the Empire State.


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M
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« Reply #780 on: January 23, 2004, 02:31:16 am »

The GOP may not necessarily be seen as a "racist" party like Hillary Clinton calls it by people my age and a little older (late teens, early twenties). I certainly have never met an openly racist GOPer, and I live in Texas. You here the race card played more often in election by dems, and I don't think anyone wh didn't live through the civil rights movement and its aftermath finds it easy to see Affirmative Action as anything other than racial quotas. In fact, AA is one of only two big reasons I am not a Democrat (the other is Foreign/defense policy), as I am fairly liberal socially. It brings up images of the racist antisemitic quotas that kept Jews out of the Ivy League in the '30s (and led to the establishment of Bradeis), and the immigration quotas that kept us locked in the Nazi death camps in the prelude to WW2. Even things like the Trent Lott thing don't really mean much to most young people, but you cant miss Al Sharpton and the Crown Heights Pogrom, or the Tawana Brawley deal.

Also, these theorists completely misunderstand the Hispanic population, which is trending GOP. Most of the second + generationers and many of the first generationers are very culturally American, and anyway Mexico will within ten years be a fully first world nation so the demographic trend will change. The radically lefty and often terrifyingly Nazi-like Hispanic "leaders" like the Mecha group and the New Aztlan stuff are increasingly unpopular outside of some college campuses. Do these theorists actually know any Hispanics? I do- I live in Texas, And they have it all wrong.

Most if not all young people are diversity minded, true. In fact, almost everyone I know in my age group accepts Indians, Chinese, Salvadorans, whoever as fellows without even really thinking about it. Does that mean they are necessarily thought police-guilt over the white man's evil-PC freaks? Absolutely not, these views are rare beyond the ACLU and Berkeley. Is there a natural impulse to refuse to consider the GOP on "race card" grounds? Not usually, no.

The actual trends today are quite different. Some (Increasing voter differences among Hispanics, Jews; increasing percentage of shareholders; return oif freign poicy to center stage; lefty northern states shrinking, rightist Southern states groing; etc.) favor the GOP. The big trends, however, are towards split ticket voting and decreasing party identification (and, unfortunately, decreasing interest in politics and lower voter turnouts). These trends mean that whoever siezes the center by American standards on the most issues wins these days. This year that is Bush, who has co-opted much of the dem policy agenda as deftly as Clinton did to the GOP.

The best chance the dems have to beat Bush is with Edwards or Lieberman, preferably both on the same ticket. I'd even onsider that particular ticket.
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Platypus
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« Reply #781 on: January 23, 2004, 03:47:57 am »

BTW, can someone explain to me why Missouri is pronounced Mizzourah by easterners?

I've lived a few miles north of it for my whole life, and I've never heard it pronounced that way by an Iowan. I was watching the newshour and Jim Lehrer prounounced it "Mizzourah" and I almost burst out laughing. Tongue
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opebo
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« Reply #782 on: January 23, 2004, 07:11:11 am »

BTW, can someone explain to me why Missouri is pronounced Mizzourah by easterners?

I've lived a few miles north of it for my whole life, and I've never heard it pronounced that way by an Iowan. I was watching the newshour and Jim Lehrer prounounced it "Mizzourah" and I almost burst out laughing. Tongue

Is Jim Lehrer an Easterner?  I think that people up near Iowa - Northern Missouri - pronounce it like you do - Mizzoureee.  But in the Southern part of the state, in the rural areas, many people do actually pronounce it Mizzourah.  But its far from universal even down there.  I grew up down that way but have alway used EE myself.  
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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #783 on: January 23, 2004, 04:32:56 pm »

Hello again from the Empire State:

The reason why I did not visit the site until yesterday was because my computer needed to be fixed.  It is good to know that I was missed.  

First, how do I set up a thread for my drudge report submission? The main reason why I put my message on this forum was because I thought the information was relevent to this discussion topic.  

Secondly, I was originally born in Missouri and I have lived in NY for most of my life.  Yet I don't know why many easterners refer to Missouri as "Mizzourah."  Maybe I will find out someday.

Later All.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #784 on: January 23, 2004, 04:36:03 pm »

Hello again from the Empire State:

The reason why I did not visit the site until yesterday was because my computer needed to be fixed.  It is good to know that I was missed.  

First, how do I set up a thread for my drudge report submission? The main reason why I put my message on this forum was because I thought the information was relevent to this discussion topic.  

Secondly, I was originally born in Missouri and I have lived in NY for most of my life.  Yet I don't know why many easterners refer to Missouri as "Mizzourah."  Maybe I will find out someday.

Later All.

You enter the board, click on the button that says "create new topic" and you fill in a headline and an initiating message. It does have some bearing, but we try to keep different variations somewhat apart, since the entire board is dedicated to the 2004 race.
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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #785 on: January 23, 2004, 04:47:46 pm »

Dean is finished.  too bad guys, you might just have to work for this one.


Hello Again:

I would like to point out that this is an example of carelessly jumping the gun.  Just because Dean faltered in Iowa and Kerry won, does not mean his campaign is necessarily finished.  There are many more primaries and many things that could happen as election day gets closer.  

By the way, I have a feeling that the media is sharpening its claws and they are not done with Dean yet.  

Kerry supporters: I congratulate your candidate on his success in Iowa but be warned, the media will come after him.  So keep your eyes and ears open.   And Edwards could be a potential upsetter in New Hampshire.    

See you all later

 
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #786 on: January 23, 2004, 04:54:15 pm »

Dean's speech (AKA drunken tirade) in Iowa was the finishing touch in the end of Howard dean.
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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #787 on: January 23, 2004, 05:01:14 pm »

Dean's speech (AKA drunken tirade) in Iowa was the finishing touch in the end of Howard dean.


First, thanks for the info Gustaf, I keep it in mind if I find another major issue.  

Secondly my reply to Miamiu was not jumping the gun, I support Howard Dean but I do not immediately declare him the winner or the loser.  Miamiu, I glad you support Edwards, but I would not corinate him yet.  Just have a little more paitence.  But I am confident that if your canidate does better in the polls, the media will be all over him, just like they were with Dean in Iowa.

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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #788 on: January 23, 2004, 05:03:31 pm »

Dean has dropped down to 10 points behind Kerry in NH, and he used to lead there by 30 points.  I think that the final nail is in the coffin.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #789 on: January 23, 2004, 05:04:55 pm »

Dean has dropped down to 10 points behind Kerry in NH, and he used to lead there by 30 points.  I think that the final nail is in the coffin.

I think that we need to watch out for Clark now. If he makes a reasonable showing in NH while Dean goes down, then Clark will be the only remainging strong candidate in the Feb 3rd states. Unless Kerry and Edwards get a really strong momentum.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #790 on: January 23, 2004, 05:10:54 pm »

I guess you didn't see the deabte last night, gustaf, but clark was horrible.  He made no sense.  That's why I said he shoudl wear a shirt that says 'I have no idea what's going on.'  This thing is between Kerry and edwards, the southern moderate anbd the Northeastern liberal.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #791 on: January 23, 2004, 05:13:13 pm »

I guess you didn't see the deabte last night, gustaf, but clark was horrible.  He made no sense.  That's why I said he shoudl wear a shirt that says 'I have no idea what's going on.'  This thing is between Kerry and edwards, the southern moderate anbd the Northeastern liberal.

No I didn't, since it was on about, oh, 3 am in the morning, and on week days I try to avoid being up that late... Smiley

Well, when Clark starts to go down in polls, I'll believe you.
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tweed
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« Reply #792 on: January 23, 2004, 05:14:17 pm »

HE hasn't really been up in the polls, so he won't go down.

They broadcast the debate in Sweden?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #793 on: January 23, 2004, 05:19:36 pm »

HE hasn't really been up in the polls, so he won't go down.

They broadcast the debate in Sweden?

I have CNN, BBC World, Sky News and Fox News on my TV. To name a few...so I think I could watch the debates, at least if they're on one of these channels. But Swedish networks don't broadcast them, no. Btw, it was in one of the Swedish papers that the Dean-tape has now reached Sweden and is getting downloaded, spreading just as rapidly as in the US. Dean might have made his claim to fame...
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tweed
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« Reply #794 on: January 23, 2004, 05:37:28 pm »

The debate was on FOX News.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #795 on: January 23, 2004, 05:38:45 pm »


That's what I thought. I think I could have seen it then, but I didn't.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #796 on: January 23, 2004, 05:39:50 pm »


That's what I thought. I think I could have seen it then, but I didn't.
It was on too late for you???

Well..you have to get up early for PE...huh?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #797 on: January 23, 2004, 05:41:18 pm »


That's what I thought. I think I could have seen it then, but I didn't.
It was on too late for you???

Well..you have to get up early for PE...huh?

Time zones, remember? Your prime time is something like 3 a.m. in Sweden, not a good time to be up. And yes, on Fridays i have to get up early for PE, what'swrong with that?
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #798 on: January 23, 2004, 05:42:10 pm »

You have to go into school early for physical education.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #799 on: January 23, 2004, 05:44:29 pm »

You have to go into school early for physical education.

Is the term wrong, or am I missing something? I remember that it was called PE when I was in the UK? Or do you mean some joke, like it is physically educating to get up early? In that case I didn't get it, but haha... Smiley
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