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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 805890 times)
Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #925 on: February 08, 2004, 02:12:07 pm »

Good observation Realpolitik, many steelworkers were angered when Bush rescinded the steel tariffs.  This action may also cost him voters in Indiana and Ohio.  

Right now I have moved WV on my EV map to the tossup category.  

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #926 on: February 08, 2004, 02:17:40 pm »

Mining communities are almost always very poor, very left wing (on economics) and are also union dominated.
And don't like capitalism at all...

In the U.K, the Labour Party dominates the Coalfields, while in France the Valenciennes Coalfield is a traditional stronghold of the PCF.

And in the U.S the Appalachian Coalfield is very easy to spot on a National County Map.
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opebo
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« Reply #927 on: February 08, 2004, 02:23:33 pm »

Mining communities are almost always very poor, very left wing (on economics) and are also union dominated.
And don't like capitalism at all...

In the U.K, the Labour Party dominates the Coalfields, while in France the Valenciennes Coalfield is a traditional stronghold of the PCF.

And in the U.S the Appalachian Coalfield is very easy to spot on a National County Map.

Rather perverse given that Capitalism is what creates economic growth which creates enormous increases in coal consumption.  But I realize these may not be rational voters - more like envy/alienation voters.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #928 on: February 08, 2004, 02:43:32 pm »

Actually very few miners switched to the GOP.
What killed Gore was the fact that a lot stayed at home, add that to the Steel Workers switching to Bush (but they will probably "come home" this year), and a higher turnout amoung Republicans (37% of the WV electorate) and that was that.

I was familier with the WVGS' website, but the only party affected by Mountain Top Mining is the Mountain Party.


Why would Coal Miners vote Democrat?  The Dems are ecological nuts who would close coal power generation if they could.  Personally I'm pro-coal.

Why would you be pro-coal? Nuclear power is the way to go, imo.
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tweed
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« Reply #929 on: February 08, 2004, 02:52:43 pm »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 270 to Kerry 268
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Gustaf
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« Reply #930 on: February 08, 2004, 02:55:31 pm »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 270 to Kerry 268

That's a tough loss...
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opebo
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« Reply #931 on: February 08, 2004, 02:56:37 pm »

Actually very few miners switched to the GOP.
What killed Gore was the fact that a lot stayed at home, add that to the Steel Workers switching to Bush (but they will probably "come home" this year), and a higher turnout amoung Republicans (37% of the WV electorate) and that was that.

I was familier with the WVGS' website, but the only party affected by Mountain Top Mining is the Mountain Party.


Why would Coal Miners vote Democrat?  The Dems are ecological nuts who would close coal power generation if they could.  Personally I'm pro-coal.

Why would you be pro-coal? Nuclear power is the way to go, imo.

Oh I like nuclear power, but coal really is best - its cheap, easily available, and the one thing it has over nuclear is it is terror-proof.  They can blow up coal plants and all we have to do is build another one.  If they blow up a nuke plant we loose a few counties at least.
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opebo
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« Reply #932 on: February 08, 2004, 02:58:23 pm »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 270 to Kerry 268

Wow, Bush winning without Ohio.. now that is a cool map.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #933 on: February 08, 2004, 02:59:20 pm »

Actually very few miners switched to the GOP.
What killed Gore was the fact that a lot stayed at home, add that to the Steel Workers switching to Bush (but they will probably "come home" this year), and a higher turnout amoung Republicans (37% of the WV electorate) and that was that.

I was familier with the WVGS' website, but the only party affected by Mountain Top Mining is the Mountain Party.


Why would Coal Miners vote Democrat?  The Dems are ecological nuts who would close coal power generation if they could.  Personally I'm pro-coal.

Why would you be pro-coal? Nuclear power is the way to go, imo.

Oh I like nuclear power, but coal really is best - its cheap, easily available, and the one thing it has over nuclear is it is terror-proof.  They can blow up coal plants and all we have to do is build another one.  If they blow up a nuke plant we loose a few counties at least.


But it's bad for the environment and it is limited, in the sense that it will run out at some point, and definitely get more expensive.
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opebo
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« Reply #934 on: February 08, 2004, 03:03:58 pm »

Actually very few miners switched to the GOP.
What killed Gore was the fact that a lot stayed at home, add that to the Steel Workers switching to Bush (but they will probably "come home" this year), and a higher turnout amoung Republicans (37% of the WV electorate) and that was that.

I was familier with the WVGS' website, but the only party affected by Mountain Top Mining is the Mountain Party.


Why would Coal Miners vote Democrat?  The Dems are ecological nuts who would close coal power generation if they could.  Personally I'm pro-coal.

Why would you be pro-coal? Nuclear power is the way to go, imo.

Oh I like nuclear power, but coal really is best - its cheap, easily available, and the one thing it has over nuclear is it is terror-proof.  They can blow up coal plants and all we have to do is build another one.  If they blow up a nuke plant we loose a few counties at least.


But it's bad for the environment and it is limited, in the sense that it will run out at some point, and definitely get more expensive.

Yeah in about 200 years.  
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #935 on: February 08, 2004, 03:07:07 pm »

Actually, I had WV in the Kerry column until I saw it gave Kerry enough to win, so I took WV out so that Kerry would lose.

Never jinx it.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #936 on: February 08, 2004, 03:40:27 pm »

Actually very few miners switched to the GOP.
What killed Gore was the fact that a lot stayed at home, add that to the Steel Workers switching to Bush (but they will probably "come home" this year), and a higher turnout amoung Republicans (37% of the WV electorate) and that was that.

I was familier with the WVGS' website, but the only party affected by Mountain Top Mining is the Mountain Party.


Why would Coal Miners vote Democrat?  The Dems are ecological nuts who would close coal power generation if they could.  Personally I'm pro-coal.

Why would you be pro-coal? Nuclear power is the way to go, imo.

Oh I like nuclear power, but coal really is best - its cheap, easily available, and the one thing it has over nuclear is it is terror-proof.  They can blow up coal plants and all we have to do is build another one.  If they blow up a nuke plant we loose a few counties at least.


But it's bad for the environment and it is limited, in the sense that it will run out at some point, and definitely get more expensive.

Yeah in about 200 years.  

Well, i the long perspective...but maybe you don't care about that?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #937 on: February 08, 2004, 03:44:12 pm »

Actually it's at least 3000.
200-400 on current reserves.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #938 on: February 08, 2004, 03:47:22 pm »

Actually it's at least 3000.
200-400 on current reserves.

Are you attnding the fantasy debate, RP?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #939 on: February 08, 2004, 03:51:57 pm »

No, I'm going to read the transcripts... but I would like the following question to be answered:

"What measures do you intend to take to preserve Coal Mining communities?"
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Gustaf
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« Reply #940 on: February 08, 2004, 03:53:21 pm »

No, I'm going to read the transcripts... but I would like the following question to be answered:

"What measures do you intend to take to preserve Coal Mining communities?"

Lol..I'll ask that for you, if possible... Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #941 on: February 08, 2004, 03:54:34 pm »

Thanks Smiley
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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #942 on: February 08, 2004, 03:55:54 pm »

According to National Geographic's historical atlas of the U.S., this country has at least a 500 year supply of recoverable coal reserves.  The U.S. is the second-largest coal producer after China.  
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #943 on: February 08, 2004, 03:57:30 pm »

Sorry... my estimates for reserves was for the U.K in the '80's... it stuck in my head for some reason...
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Gustaf
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« Reply #944 on: February 08, 2004, 04:25:52 pm »


You're welcome, the question has been asked, and these are the answers so far:

 I would relax environmental policies inorder to allow Coal plants to catch-up with current standards rather than having to shut down.  Clinton/Gore hurt the coal industry by creating unrealistic goals for the industry and I would...
supersoulty: relax that.  done
ofthisnation: Seantor, your rebuttal.
Nym90: I feel that coal mining communities have the same needs as all of the rest of our country. I think that they want decent education, and an improving economy. Right now they are being left behind by the globalizing economy, and...
Nym90: they need to have some degree of protection in our trade policies. Relaxing environmental standards would only hurt the quality of life for all of us. Let's not wreck the environment that our children depend upon.
Nym90: ok, done.
ofthisnation: Governor, your rebuttal, if you have one.
supersoulty: Yes...
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Mort from NewYawk
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« Reply #945 on: February 09, 2004, 11:35:52 am »

UPDATED Kerry v. Bush:


Bush 270 to Kerry 268

Miami, I think that this map is real close to the best prediction that could be made at this point in time. In fact, not being afraid to jinx Kerry, and not wanting these republican guys to get too complacent, I would make WV red, swinging the whole thing to Kerry (without a single southwest state, not even NM).

In fact, throw in NH and IA, and you can give the GOP back MN or WS and still win.

The critical mass of this election is definitely in the midwest. OH is the lynchpin, and MN, WS, IA and WV are in no way solid Bush country this cycle, not against a strong Dem statement on jobs and working class families with a hint of protectionism thrown in for good measure.
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opebo
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« Reply #946 on: February 09, 2004, 12:50:07 pm »

Neat map Mort, but I think Bush wins Ohio.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #947 on: February 09, 2004, 03:43:00 pm »

Ohio just passed right to carry legislation and a bill against gay marriages.  A conservative trend?


Neat map Mort, but I think Bush wins Ohio.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #948 on: February 09, 2004, 04:01:47 pm »

Neat map Mort, but I think Bush wins Ohio.
That was my map.

I think a perfect storm of events are happening in Ohio and Kerry will win the state 50-49% or so.
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opebo
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« Reply #949 on: February 10, 2004, 01:01:08 am »

Neat map Mort, but I think Bush wins Ohio.
That was my map.

I think a perfect storm of events are happening in Ohio and Kerry will win the state 50-49% or so.

Oh, sorry about that.  Neat Map Miami.  Anyway, what 'perfect storm of events' is happening in Ohio?  As far as I can tell, a very ordinary, somewhat conservative state is experiencing some excessive localized unemployment, but it will probably trend in the right direction over the next 10 months.  I think everything other than unemployement favors Republicans in Ohio.
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