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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 821249 times)
NHPolitico
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« Reply #550 on: January 11, 2004, 04:56:24 pm »

Dean is reported to be obsessed with the South

It's hard to say which is a better strategy for Dem House and Senate candidates in the South this year-- having Dean try to improve his image there or staying the hell out of the region entirely.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #551 on: January 11, 2004, 04:58:06 pm »

Bring on DEAn, esp after today!  

That is if the Dems don't dump him now too.

They  won't dump him they love him.

Time is starting to go way too slowly for my tastes. I see a Dean victory in my grasp and it's agonizing to watch him stumble to the finish line.  
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #552 on: January 11, 2004, 05:01:30 pm »

...or because GOP posters have been posting big GOP wins while Dem posters have been posting big Dem wins with their being a few more GOP posters than Dems posters...

Yeah, a whole lot of stupid predictions is just a whole lot of stupid predictions. A lot of people predicted the bubble wouldn't burst in Jan-Mar 2000, but they were all wrong.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #553 on: January 11, 2004, 05:04:02 pm »

I still think that Dean will not get the turnout from the middle Gore gotten.

PA Polls out this week have Bush over 50% vs everyone and 49% vs Dean.  

So yes Bush can still Carry PA , it was very close in 2000 and without PA, Dems are done.


Ok, I'll take a stab at objectivity.  The Dem nominee will have a much tougher time keeping the states Al Gore won by 1/2 of one percent - Wisconsin, Oregon, New Mexico, and Iowa -  than George Bush will have protecting his closest states of Florida and New Hampshire.  Bush will run much tougher in California and New york than he did in 2000.  He won't win those two states but will force Dems to spend resources there they didn't have to spend in 2000.  

If Dean is the nominee, Bush carries Minn, Pa, as well.
Bush carry Pennsylvania? After lifting the foreign steel tariffs? That would be quite an accomplishment.

Many Democrats don't realize what a great candidate that Gore was.  They think he was a total loser and that any of the guys running can easily improve on Gore's performance.  That's hogwash. Gore did a great job of holding together all the interest groups that make up the Democrat Party.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #554 on: January 11, 2004, 05:04:50 pm »

Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?

Can't get a ride to The Improv?
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #555 on: January 11, 2004, 05:06:58 pm »

Honestly I've been wondering why Europeans care so much about our electiuons.  seems like we have more european democrats than american ones.

Not a big deal, but we just don't see the reverse, Americans could care less about European elections for the most part.


Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?

They care because they know their world and the real world revolves around us.  We don't have to follow what goes on in Canada or the EU or anywhere else particularly.  We'd know about who their rulers were if it mattered.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #556 on: January 11, 2004, 05:09:37 pm »

Humm I have some British friends too and they want Bush to win to keep the strong relationship with Blair.

REELECT PRESIDENT BUSH!

For the sake of the world, vote Bush-Cheney?

Let's print up the bumper stickers!
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #557 on: January 11, 2004, 05:12:49 pm »

No, the French wouldn't elect an American come hell or high water, no matter how liberal!! He'd probably be right at home in the 'wet' wing (i.e liberal wing), of the Tory party. Even Dean isn't left enough for the Lib Dems or Labour, but I could easily see him being elected in Chipping Barnet :-)

Most people in Sweden think, quite rightly, that the Democrats pretty much correponds with the Swedish right, whereas the Republicans are off the edge! It can be seen, for example, that the Swedish left, left of centre, centre, right of centre and right hate Bush. The "conservative", or rather libertarian, right is split on whether to hate him or not.

I know what you mean. Jean-Marie le Pen is as anti-OIF as Chirac.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #558 on: January 11, 2004, 05:28:48 pm »
« Edited: January 11, 2004, 05:29:20 pm by NHPolitico »

I wouldn't be so confident.

Granted, West Virginia is a very very very (you get the point) socially conservative state. Its also very evangelical. Democrats still vastly outnumber Republicans and lets face it, West Virginians vote for democrats even when they're socially moderate or even liberal (Dukakis, Clinton [Twice]). If Dean moves to the center come election season, as we know he has to (you can only try the Barry Goldwater strategy once or twice before people place electablilty ahead of principles)

Same thing goes for Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana...granted they're far more Republican by nature...its not like a moderate or even Liberal democrat can't carry these states...I doubt conservatives thought Clinton a socially conservative candidate, but yet all 3 states went for Clinton in 92 and 96.

Now am I saying that Tennessee or Arkansas will land in Dean's column come November...its not likely, the GOP has a pretty good machine in those two states and with the exception of TN Gov (where the last R was pretty unpopular) the GOP has the momentum.  Louisiana (a catholic state) where the democrats have a pretty well oiled machine could go the way of Dean or Clark providing they present a reasonably mainstream image...but that remains to be seen.

The Democrats won over 60% of the vote in WV in the last congressional election.
Every single elected state-wide official in WV has a little D next to his/her name.

The Republicans have a machine in Arkansas outside the Ozarks?
Huckabee is the only popular Republican in the state... and his popularity is waning.
TN is going to close(as always. Amazing what a bit of good ol' fashioned sectional voting can do...)

You are totally right about the AR-GOP. They are $323,000 in debt because the finance director took money from the party's accounts and generally did a poor job of informing the party how much money was available to spend on projects. The leadership of the AR-GOP has almost entirely been booted out.  Several Republicans have served briefly to fill in and Win has accepted the position of Chairman, but that's just a fill-in measure and no one expects him to run for re-election to the chairmanship the next time it's up for a vote. The state party is bankrupt and it's totally representitive of how the party is basicly Mike Huckabee and a guy with a great last name (Win Rockefeller) and that is it-- that's all there is. Mike has done what he can to bail out the party, but a bucket doesn't do much good on the Titanic. The RNC has offered to help pay staffers to keep the party operating.

As far as Bush's re-election, he'll have his own people working the state, so don't worry about his fortunes in the Natural State.  It's just too bad that statewide elections were in 2002 and not this year. They could have piggy-backed off Bush's machine.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #559 on: January 11, 2004, 05:39:41 pm »

I wouldn't be so confident.

Granted, West Virginia is a very very very (you get the point) socially conservative state. Its also very evangelical. Democrats still vastly outnumber Republicans and lets face it, West Virginians vote for democrats even when they're socially moderate or even liberal (Dukakis, Clinton [Twice]). If Dean moves to the center come election season, as we know he has to (you can only try the Barry Goldwater strategy once or twice before people place electablilty ahead of principles)

Same thing goes for Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana...granted they're far more Republican by nature...its not like a moderate or even Liberal democrat can't carry these states...I doubt conservatives thought Clinton a socially conservative candidate, but yet all 3 states went for Clinton in 92 and 96.

Now am I saying that Tennessee or Arkansas will land in Dean's column come November...its not likely, the GOP has a pretty good machine in those two states and with the exception of TN Gov (where the last R was pretty unpopular) the GOP has the momentum.  Louisiana (a catholic state) where the democrats have a pretty well oiled machine could go the way of Dean or Clark providing they present a reasonably mainstream image...but that remains to be seen.

The Democrats won over 60% of the vote in WV in the last congressional election.
Every single elected state-wide official in WV has a little D next to his/her name.

The Republicans have a machine in Arkansas outside the Ozarks?
Huckabee is the only popular Republican in the state... and his popularity is waning.
TN is going to close(as always. Amazing what a bit of good ol' fashioned sectional voting can do...)

Only one seat of the WV three is even contested by the GOP and Capito went from 51.4% of the 2-party vote in 2000 to 60.0% of the 2-party vote. The WV-GOP will happily take that trend.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #560 on: January 11, 2004, 05:41:31 pm »

Bush remains popular in Arkansas.  Last time I looked, Huckabee wasn't going to be on the presidential ballot.  Bush is on the ballot - and thank the lord his opponent is going to be Dean.  Write it down, Bush will carry Arkansas by at least 15 points.

Even if Huckabee were on the ballot, it wouldn't be that big of a deal. Mike has carved his niche in Arkansas politics.  He'll end up having served as governor for 10 years. You don't get that on your resume by being unpopular.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #561 on: January 11, 2004, 05:42:48 pm »

Very unlikely that Bush would carry a Democrat leaning state by 15%
Stop being partizan please...

BTW Dean has not won a single vote yet.


It's not a Democrat-leaning state. It's a state where Democrats run as conservatives and where the state GOP has never figured out how to get its act together.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #562 on: January 11, 2004, 05:43:52 pm »

Award for most insane prediction goes to Bush Nation(R-TX) who has predicted that Bush will win every state(including DC), with over 90% in all but 3 states.

He probably posted that to get a rise out of some Democrats here. I guess it worked.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #563 on: January 11, 2004, 05:45:22 pm »

Clark would win AR in a cakewalk, but I'm not sure about the others YET.

That's a ridiculous statement. Clark is a liberal.  He's not Mark Pryor. Just being from Arkansas won't give the state to Clark in a cakewalk.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #564 on: January 11, 2004, 05:54:05 pm »

Btw, shouldn't tossups always be equally distributed between the parties? I notice a lot of people mark states as tossups on their confidence maps, and then hand all or most of them to one party in the prediction map. That isn't really intelectually honest, is it?  

If you have a repeat of 2002 where the tide turns the weekend before Election Day toward one party (or turns long before then), that would tip all the states in one direction.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #565 on: January 11, 2004, 05:57:12 pm »

But deep south is not just about geography but cultural and values and way of life.

Even if you use that Arkansas is not in the Deep South(parts are, most are not)

What I think is interesting about AR is that it's de facto segregated.  Might as well slice the state into two separate states that only have a love of the Razorbacks in common.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #566 on: January 11, 2004, 06:00:43 pm »

I have been arguing that the South is cultural conservative and that's why they vote Republican - that that kind of cultural conservatism doesn't exist in Britain.  

"I'm sorry, we don't do God," as Blair's advisor said.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #567 on: January 11, 2004, 06:02:39 pm »


Can't Dave check IP addresses for repeat trolls?
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #568 on: January 11, 2004, 06:08:24 pm »

The key to stopping Dean is on Feb. 3rd with Clark on OK, AZ, and SC.

If Dean runs the table in Iowa and NH as is expected, his numbers in every state will be boosted. Clark or anyone else trying to stop him has to be up on Dean in these states to beat back the surge that will come. Being tied isn't good enough.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #569 on: January 11, 2004, 06:10:55 pm »

Cowboys have no chance against the soon-to-be NFC champion Panthers.

Good call. One more weekend and you'll be quite the prognosticator.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #570 on: January 11, 2004, 06:16:10 pm »

which states are "losable"?  NM?  WI?  I don't think any state is losable for the Dems.

I was referring to tossups: NM, WI, MN, IA and OR. PA would be in there as well, but that's one of the target states.
I do think Dean would win Pennsylvania.

Why do you think Dean is Pennsylvania's kind of Democrat?  For the record, Rendell likes Lieberman if I recall.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #571 on: January 11, 2004, 06:19:17 pm »

The States that Bush won in 2000 have picked up 7 electoral votes, mainly due to an increase in population in the South and the Sunbelt. This trend does not seem to be turning around anytime soon.

If you guys abandon those areas, you will be consigning yourself to permanent minority status.

Not that I would care.

Clinton found a way to stay competitive in those areas. I would suggest that if the Dems have any hope of regaining the White House, they should look to the DLC and not to the turncoat Gore (who could not even win his own State!) and his new pal Dean.


Exactly. It's not the South that is anti-Democrat, it is a case of the national Democrat Party of Dean and Pelosi and Daschle and Kennedy being anti-Democrat (as defined by Southern Democrats).  People like Breaux could do well in every Southern state. The Democrat Party has chosen to not support people like Lieberman who could win in the South.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #572 on: January 11, 2004, 06:33:39 pm »

I don't believe Edwards could carry NC, let alone any of the rest of the South.


Research 2000 poll of North Carolinians, 1/04:

Approve of presidential bid by Edwards: 55 % (vs. 39% last year)-- due to increase in number of Democrats in NC who support his bid.

Bush vs. Edwards: 53-40


Do you have a source/link for the NC info?
Yeah, you got a link?

Edwards' N.C. support up
Senator still trails Bush in state

By JOHN WAGNER, Washington Correspondent

Democrats in North Carolina are far more accepting of Sen. John Edwards' presidential bid, but he has made no progress convincing home-state Republicans that he should replace President Bush, according to a new poll commissioned by The News & Observer.
The poll, taken less than two weeks before Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucus, found that a majority of North Carolinians -- 55 percent -- approve of Edwards' White House bid, compared with 39 percent when he launched his candidacy a year ago.
The wider acceptance is due in large part to warmer feelings among fellow Tar Heel Democrats: 93 percent now approve of Edwards' run, compared with 67 percent a year ago, according to the survey by Research 2000 of Rockville, Md.

But the poll also showed Edwards continuing to face an uphill battle to beat Bush, if Edwards wins the nomination.

If the election were held today, Bush would prevail in the Tar Heel state, 53 percent to Edwards' 40 percent. Republicans would pick Bush over Edwards, 92 percent to 1 percent, the poll found. Edwards, meanwhile, would prevail among Democrats, 81 percent to 16 percent.

"Most North Carolinians now approve of Edwards' running, but when they match him up against President Bush, the bottom line is Bush comes out on top," said Del Ali, president of Research 2000.

The poll of 600 likely voters was taken Monday through Thursday and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

It shows former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, the Democratic front-runner, trailing by a larger margin in North Carolina. If the general election were held today, Bush would beat Dean 57 percent to 38 percent, the poll found. If retired Gen. Wesley Clark of Arkansas, the only Southerner besides Edwards, were the nominee, the poll found Bush would prevail, 54 percent to 40 percent.

No Democrat has carried North Carolina in a presidential election since 1976, when Jimmy Carter from neighboring Georgia won.

If Edwards were to become the party's nominee, "I could see a heck of race in North Carolina, but it would still be Bush's race to lose," Ali said. "I can see absolutely no scenario where Dean beats Bush in North Carolina."

Edwards spent Friday campaigning in New Hampshire, the nation's first primary state, where voters will assess the Democratic field eight days after the Jan. 19 caucuses in Iowa.

A separate poll released this week by Research 2000 showed Edwards running fourth in Iowa. Dean led the pack, with support of 29 percent of likely caucus-goers, followed by Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri with 25 percent, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts with 18 percent and Edwards with 8 percent.

Recent tracking polls in New Hampshire conducted by the American Research Group have shown Edwards further back in the pack, with support hovering around 3 percent.

In New Hampshire, Edwards sought to improve his standing with appearances before several hundred college students in Manchester, a packed diner full of Democrats in Keene and a town hall meeting in Nashua. At all three stops, Edwards was received enthusiastically as he tried to sell himself as a Washington outsider focused on moving the country forward rather than sniping at his Democratic rivals.

"Together, you and I can change America," Edwards told about 75 people packed in Timoleon's Restaurant in Keene.

North Carolinians' assessment of Edwards' chances to do that has slipped some since the last N&O poll in November.

In the new poll, 19 percent said they think Edwards is "likely" to be the Democratic nominee, while 32 percent said there is "some chance," and 43 percent saw "no chance."

In November, 21 percent said Edwards is "likely" to be the nominee, while 34 percent said there is "some chance," and 36 percent saw "no chance."

The poll also showed Edwards continuing to hold a comfortable lead in a hypothetical Democratic presidential primary in North Carolina. Edwards drew the support of 40 percent, while Dean drew 26 percent. The other candidates were in the single digits.

Edwards' standing is better than that of some of his rivals in their home states. A poll late last year, for example, showed Dean and Kerry to be in a statistical dead heat among likely Democratic voters in Massachusetts. A similar poll in Connecticut showed Lieberman with a five-point lead over Dean.

North Carolina's primary is scheduled for May, by which time the Democrats are likely to have already selected a nominee.


Washington correspondent John Wagner can be reached at (202) 662-4380 or jwagner@mcclatchydc.com.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #573 on: January 11, 2004, 06:37:59 pm »

which states are "losable"?  NM?  WI?  I don't think any state is losable for the Dems.

I was referring to tossups: NM, WI, MN, IA and OR. PA would be in there as well, but that's one of the target states.
I do think Dean would win Pennsylvania.

Why do you think Dean is Pennsylvania's kind of Democrat?  For the record, Rendell likes Lieberman if I recall.

Please excuse me while I roll on the floor in laughter.  Dean could never win PA.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #574 on: January 11, 2004, 07:06:40 pm »

which states are "losable"?  NM?  WI?  I don't think any state is losable for the Dems.

I was referring to tossups: NM, WI, MN, IA and OR. PA would be in there as well, but that's one of the target states.
I do think Dean would win Pennsylvania.

Why do you think Dean is Pennsylvania's kind of Democrat?  For the record, Rendell likes Lieberman if I recall.

Please excuse me while I roll on the floor in laughter.  Dean could never win PA.

That's my belief, too.
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