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  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 825350 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2250 on: June 18, 2004, 08:35:36 am »

How's this?

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StatesRights
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« Reply #2251 on: June 18, 2004, 10:12:55 am »

Tweed,

Why don't you use the colors on my map.
Red=Republican Blue = Democrat. Smiley
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2252 on: June 18, 2004, 10:31:25 am »

I don't like your color system.  The big red Bush area hurts my eyes.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2253 on: June 18, 2004, 10:58:07 am »

I don't like your color system.  The big red Bush area hurts my eyes.

Get ready it will be redder on the 3rd of November. Smiley
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2254 on: June 21, 2004, 08:17:20 am »

StatesRights,

Your percentages are out of whack.  Bush won't get 60% in TN, KY, IN, and SC.  Also, there is NO WAY Kerry gets 60% in Vermont.  Gore only got about 51% there.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2255 on: June 21, 2004, 10:32:47 am »

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2256 on: June 21, 2004, 10:44:33 am »


Wanna put money on 60% for Kerry in Vermont?
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2257 on: June 21, 2004, 10:51:37 am »


Wanna put money on 60% for Kerry in Vermont?

I just bet beer. Smiley
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minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
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« Reply #2258 on: June 21, 2004, 10:55:43 am »

I guess it's just about possible - assuming a very bad showing for Nader, a clear Kerry victory across the US and an overaverage VT swing.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2259 on: June 21, 2004, 10:57:32 am »

I guess it's just about possible - assuming a very bad showing for Nader, a clear Kerry victory across the US and an overaverage VT swing.

I know virtually nothing about Vermont politics although I would just generally assume they are pretty liberal. Well, we all know what assumption is the mother of.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2260 on: June 22, 2004, 12:17:57 am »

R - 327
D - 210*







*One Democratic DC elector will abstain out of protest.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2261 on: June 22, 2004, 10:33:30 am »

I told you, no DC elector will abstain...but you don't seem to listen...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #2262 on: June 23, 2004, 06:45:23 am »

My graph:



Most changes are because of mindless tinkering wi' the map when I'm bored...
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #2263 on: June 23, 2004, 07:55:22 am »
« Edited: June 23, 2004, 07:56:11 am by hughento »

Total-intuition map. Basically, i pictured myself as a voter in that state, going to the polling booth, and voting for the first campaign banner I saw.



Kerry-270
Bush-268

It isn't mean to be an in depth analysis. Just gut feeling.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2264 on: June 23, 2004, 08:51:34 am »

Total-intuition map. Basically, i pictured myself as a voter in that state, going to the polling booth, and voting for the first campaign banner I saw.



Kerry-270
Bush-268

It isn't mean to be an in depth analysis. Just gut feeling.

Pretty random.
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platypeanArchcow
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« Reply #2265 on: June 23, 2004, 11:09:24 am »

Total-intuition map. Basically, i pictured myself as a voter in that state, going to the polling booth, and voting for the first campaign banner I saw.



Kerry-270
Bush-268

It isn't mean to be an in depth analysis. Just gut feeling.

It'll still be 270:268 (but more realistic) if you switch MO, LA, and VA for MN, IA, AR, and WI.  Hell, if you just have Gore states + NV and WV, you'll still have 270:268.
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Akno21
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« Reply #2266 on: June 23, 2004, 06:09:42 pm »

Total-intuition map. Basically, i pictured myself as a voter in that state, going to the polling booth, and voting for the first campaign banner I saw.



Kerry-270
Bush-268

It isn't mean to be an in depth analysis. Just gut feeling.
Yes, that would be a gut feeling. If Virginia, Missouri, Arizona, and Louisiana go for Kerry, he will probably also get Florida, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennslyvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and maybe Ohio.    
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BushAlva
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« Reply #2267 on: June 23, 2004, 09:47:24 pm »

Total-intuition map. Basically, i pictured myself as a voter in that state, going to the polling booth, and voting for the first campaign banner I saw.



Kerry-270
Bush-268

It isn't mean to be an in depth analysis. Just gut feeling.
Yes, that would be a gut feeling. If Virginia, Missouri, Arizona, and Louisiana go for Kerry, he will probably also get Florida, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennslyvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and maybe Ohio.    

It may be a gut feeling, but it looks to me like a very realistic outcome.  I would probably give Arizona and Missouri back to Bush, but you're map look slike a very real possibility
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Lunar
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« Reply #2268 on: June 23, 2004, 09:54:52 pm »

Actually it's not.  I understand how he came up with it, and I'd have something similar if I were to do the same, but it's a bit out of line.

Many states, such as Louisiana and Arizona will be below Bush's national number while states such as Wisconsin will be above it.  

Actually, it's more like this:
Above Bush's national number (Kerry's in a 49-49-2 election): Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Oregon, West Virginia

Below Bush's national number (Bush's in a 49-49-2 election): Ohio, Missouri, Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, Arizona, Nevada

It's extremely unlikely for Bush to lose a state that he should be +5 in and simultaneously win a state that he should be -3 in.  If he's doing well he wins both, he's doing badly he loses both, and in a rough tie he wins the + and loses the -.  No scenario exists where he  loses the + and wins the -.  
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Akno21
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« Reply #2269 on: June 23, 2004, 09:56:41 pm »

Total-intuition map. Basically, i pictured myself as a voter in that state, going to the polling booth, and voting for the first campaign banner I saw.



Kerry-270
Bush-268

It isn't mean to be an in depth analysis. Just gut feeling.
Yes, that would be a gut feeling. If Virginia, Missouri, Arizona, and Louisiana go for Kerry, he will probably also get Florida, Minnesota, New Mexico, Pennslyvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and maybe Ohio.    

It may be a gut feeling, but it looks to me like a very realistic outcome.  I would probably give Arizona and Missouri back to Bush, but you're map look slike a very real possibility

If you give Arizona back to Bush, Kerry should get New Mexico at least.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2270 on: June 24, 2004, 07:46:33 pm »

Update:


Iowa seems to be becoming solid for Kerry, while Michigan is getting closer, as is North Carolina.  The closest states are probably Pennsylvania (Kerry up one), Ohio (Bush up two), and West Virginia (Kerry up 1.5).

North Carolina is right on the brink of 'solid' Bush.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2271 on: June 24, 2004, 07:48:51 pm »

Error: WA should be light red on my little map.
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #2272 on: June 25, 2004, 01:58:38 am »

Here's mine:
[link]
http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1935
[/link]
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Platypus
hughento
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« Reply #2273 on: June 25, 2004, 10:36:55 pm »

I can't believe people are tking my map so seriousl Cheesy

It's purely intution, and I believe says more about the state of the campaign in those states then the actual way it will go. It is purely based on the first banner I 'saw' when heading to the ballot box.

If you were to do the same, i'm sure your map would looki similar. It depends on whose campaign machine will be doing better in those states on the day.
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Akno21
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« Reply #2274 on: June 25, 2004, 11:37:39 pm »

Im ot going to support John Kerry because I see a banner saying "VOTE KERRY" I would vote for Kerry because he has the best vision for the country.
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