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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 825052 times)
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2300 on: July 15, 2004, 10:22:16 am »

Lewis this is my prediction. You will disagree with MN but Bush has been polling a lot better there then Iowa or NMexico. The map will resemble 2000 but will NOT be the same. Mark my words right now. Smiley

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tweed
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« Reply #2301 on: July 15, 2004, 12:26:09 pm »

States,

Stop fooling around
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2302 on: July 16, 2004, 01:30:39 am »


I'm not. Bush wins comfortably. Bush will be the first president since 88 to break 50%
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2303 on: July 16, 2004, 10:30:48 am »

Yes, you're fooling around.  Kerry won't win NM if he loses Washington.
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Siege40
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« Reply #2304 on: July 16, 2004, 06:20:23 pm »

This just may be my ignorance, but why would Bush win Wisconsin, Ohio and PA etc. but win Iowa. Or am I missing something States.

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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2305 on: July 16, 2004, 07:25:37 pm »

This just may be my ignorance, but why would Bush win Wisconsin, Ohio and PA etc. but win Iowa. Or am I missing something States.

Siege

Did you mean 'lose' for one of those?
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2306 on: July 17, 2004, 01:47:29 am »

This just may be my ignorance, but why would Bush win Wisconsin, Ohio and PA etc. but win Iowa. Or am I missing something States.

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Right now IMHO Bush is polling better in those three then in Iowa. I still believe Bush will end up sweeping every battleground in the end.
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Lunar
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« Reply #2307 on: July 17, 2004, 10:11:51 am »

This just may be my ignorance, but why would Bush win Wisconsin, Ohio and PA etc. but win Iowa. Or am I missing something States.

Siege

Right now IMHO Bush is polling better in those three then in Iowa. I still believe Bush will end up sweeping every battleground in the end.

You also believed Hillary was absolutely going to be the VP choice.  What happened to our bet by the way?  Heh.
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Siege40
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« Reply #2308 on: July 17, 2004, 10:14:55 am »

This just may be my ignorance, but why would Bush win Wisconsin, Ohio and PA etc. but win Iowa. Or am I missing something States.

Siege

Did you mean 'lose' for one of those?

I meant to say. 'but Kerry win Iowa.'

What's the latest poll out of Iowa say about the Dems vs. The GOP?

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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #2309 on: July 17, 2004, 11:40:14 am »

This just may be my ignorance, but why would Bush win Wisconsin, Ohio and PA etc. but win Iowa. Or am I missing something States.

Siege

Did you mean 'lose' for one of those?

I meant to say. 'but Kerry win Iowa.'

What's the latest poll out of Iowa say about the Dems vs. The GOP?

Siege
As States says - by polls alone, Iowa has looked almost secure of late.
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Siege40
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« Reply #2310 on: July 17, 2004, 11:44:40 am »

This just may be my ignorance, but why would Bush win Wisconsin, Ohio and PA etc. but win Iowa. Or am I missing something States.

Siege

Did you mean 'lose' for one of those?

I meant to say. 'but Kerry win Iowa.'

What's the latest poll out of Iowa say about the Dems vs. The GOP?

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As States says - by polls alone, Iowa has looked almost secure of late.
Excellent....

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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2311 on: July 18, 2004, 09:05:42 pm »

nfc champion panthers, HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

I don't think he's laughing now!
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freedomburns
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« Reply #2312 on: July 19, 2004, 12:51:24 am »
« Edited: July 19, 2004, 12:56:04 am by FreedomBurns »

In my third effort at a prediction I give all of the tossups to Bush.  Bush wins in this version, and this outcome is entirely possible.  This prediction obviates the importance of Missouri.  Missouri has voted with the winner in every election except 1956.  MO is a bellweather.  It is a border state at the intersection of the South, the Midwest and the Great Plains states.

This state is the crucial key to the 2004 election.  Whoever wins Missouri wins the election.  That is my current prediction.  I will stand by this one.  If Kerry can't win here, if his message does not resonate, he may not win the election.  He is currently 2 points down in the polls in MO.  That's up from 11 points down in early June.  It's mid-July now and there are three and a half months to go.

However: There are two Zogby polls from Missouri that show Kerry ahead.  One from May 28 had him up 3.3 points.  One from July 10 has him up 3.9 points.  I tend to discount Zogby, though, as they use a sample that includes people who are unlikely to vote.  There is a slight trend toward Kerry in their polling which may show hope.

If Kerry can carry a big state like Florida or Ohio, this may become a moot point.  I doubt this will happen in the current climate.  There are intangilbes to consider, like Jeb Bush.  Missouri is the key, and Kerry is behind.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=3685
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Lunar
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« Reply #2313 on: July 19, 2004, 01:09:23 am »

Missouri has been slipping slightly conservative.  It'll stop being the bellweather state as soon as a Democrat wins a close election.  Ohio and Florida both will probably switch before Missouri, either being enough to toss the election to Kerry (supposing he can hold onto Pennsylvania and the Midwest).  If Kerry does better than minimum necessary to win, then other states like Missouri will certainly switch.

Note that Gore actually got more votes than Bush despite losing in Missouri (that's with an illegal move keeping the courts open late only in heavily Democratic St. Louis).  You can see polls showing Kerry up nationally and down in St. Louis.

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freedomburns
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« Reply #2314 on: July 19, 2004, 04:51:44 am »

Excellent points Lunar.   Missouri does seem to track more toward the conservative lately.  But Iowa and Illinois still exert a strongly Democratic influence over it.  And it is on that Missippi River line of loose morals and fast waters that is less cohesively Republican like the Mountain states.

I'm just sayin, if I were Kerry's Karl Rove (and I sure hope he has one) I'd focus some money here.  I'm not so sure about Ohio.  I'm not ready to agree that it would go before MO; and Florida is just such an iffy proposition still.  It's a total crap in the wind for Kerry to invest a lot there.  With the way Jeb runs it and the Republican majority in the State legislature, I just can't be confident there.  I would focus on Missouri to win it.

Another (really lousy) strategy is to make sure you win New Hampshire and Nevada.  Totally doable, but this only give you a tie.  Does anyone know exactly how many of the State legislatures are controlled by the Republicans this year?  I know it is a strong Republican majority in state congresses.  Is it about 32 Republican and 18 Democrat?  Just a guess.
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« Reply #2315 on: July 20, 2004, 05:46:42 pm »


Blue--both Rep
Red--both Dem
Gray--split
NE--nonparistan, one body
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tweed
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« Reply #2316 on: July 21, 2004, 07:39:44 pm »

Harry, what is thar map supposed to signify?
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Siege40
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« Reply #2317 on: July 21, 2004, 08:05:37 pm »

I think it has to do with local State Governments, based on the previous post before his map.

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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2318 on: July 21, 2004, 08:13:45 pm »

It is a map of state legislatures. Some are Dem controlled, some are Rep controlled and some have divided control. NE is unicameral.

Okay, thanks.
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freedomburns
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« Reply #2319 on: July 22, 2004, 12:54:23 am »

Thanks Harry.  Your map looks like 11 state houses split, 16 with both state houses for Dems and 23 with both for Reps.

That's a clear win for Bush in the event of a tie.  I think that everyone here should hope that that does not happen, even the Republicans.  If Bush wins, I hope he wins with a majority of the Electoral College.  A tie would have some danger of throwing the country into outright revolt, like a new revolution.  I'm serious.  You likely don't see the same things I see and hear the same things I hear.
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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #2320 on: July 22, 2004, 09:37:14 pm »
« Edited: July 22, 2004, 09:37:55 pm by kevinatcausa »

But the state legislatures don't have any say in the case of an electoral college tie, do they?   As I understand it, all that matters for the Presidential race is which party controls a majority of the state delegations in the House of Representatives (each state's delegation gets one vote).  For the VP it's the senate delegations that matter
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True Federalist
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« Reply #2321 on: July 22, 2004, 11:28:32 pm »

Actually, for the VP its just the Senators that matter.  Since each state has 2 senators, the writers of the 12th Amendment probably fighure that if they had them vote by delegation there would be too much chance of a tied delegations not casting a vote so instead the requirement is a "majority of the whole Number" which means that 51 Senators have to agree omn who the VP should be.
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kevinatcausa
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« Reply #2322 on: July 23, 2004, 02:00:41 am »

If the senate ties 50-50, does Cheney get to cast the tiebreaker?
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2323 on: July 23, 2004, 02:27:29 am »

If the senate ties 50-50, does Cheney get to cast the tiebreaker?

Yes.
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Fritz
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« Reply #2324 on: July 23, 2004, 08:29:19 am »


I have seen this point rather heavily disputed, it was posted in the predictions in one of the threads for prediction comments.  The argument was that because the 12th amendment says "majority of whole number of senators" and does not mention the VP, that in this case the VP does not get to break a tie.  They would just have to keep voting until a candidate got a majority of the actual senator's votes
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