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  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 821294 times)
Beet
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« Reply #950 on: February 10, 2004, 01:07:04 am »

Ohio just passed right to carry legislation and a bill against gay marriages.  A conservative trend?


Neat map Mort, but I think Bush wins Ohio.

It's not necessarily a trend. Gallup polls in Ohio in 2001-2003 found it to be one of the most socially conservative states in the U.S.
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nclib
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« Reply #951 on: February 10, 2004, 01:12:50 am »

I remember seeing that posted somewhere else, Beet. Do you happen to have a link or a list of all the states?
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tweed
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« Reply #952 on: February 10, 2004, 08:07:32 am »

Oh, sorry about that.  Neat Map Miami.  Anyway, what 'perfect storm of events' is happening in Ohio?  As far as I can tell, a very ordinary, somewhat conservative state is experiencing some excessive localized unemployment, but it will probably trend in the right direction over the next 10 months.  I think everything other than unemployement favors Republicans in Ohio.
Ohio has one fof the highest muslim populations in the USA, also, which will swing the state to Bush.  Also, Gov. Taft is VERY unpopular in Ohio, a Republican.  I don't see how anything going on helps the GOP in Ohio.
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afleitch
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« Reply #953 on: February 10, 2004, 12:01:59 pm »

Have to say, thanks to the great folk at Zogby, the Muslim vote in the USA is trending more Democratic now, not a majority yet, but there are many angry people out there. The renegade Catholic vote may also swing back to the Dems, of course thats just hearsay, My (Catholic)relatives in California voted Bush last time round because of the abortion issue, but that is no longer an issue with them. As they stem from a Labour voting British Catholic family- i hope they back the Dems again!
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opebo
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« Reply #954 on: February 10, 2004, 12:09:04 pm »

Have to say, thanks to the great folk at Zogby, the Muslim vote in the USA is trending more Democratic now, not a majority yet, but there are many angry people out there. The renegade Catholic vote may also swing back to the Dems, of course thats just hearsay, My (Catholic)relatives in California voted Bush last time round because of the abortion issue, but that is no longer an issue with them. As they stem from a Labour voting British Catholic family- i hope they back the Dems again!

The Muslims are not going to tip any state one way or the other.  They're simply too few and too unlikely to vote.  Perhaps afraid of John Ashcroft!
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Gustaf
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« Reply #955 on: February 10, 2004, 12:26:30 pm »

Have to say, thanks to the great folk at Zogby, the Muslim vote in the USA is trending more Democratic now, not a majority yet, but there are many angry people out there. The renegade Catholic vote may also swing back to the Dems, of course thats just hearsay, My (Catholic)relatives in California voted Bush last time round because of the abortion issue, but that is no longer an issue with them. As they stem from a Labour voting British Catholic family- i hope they back the Dems again!

The Muslims are not going to tip any state one way or the other.  They're simply too few and too unlikely to vote.  Perhaps afraid of John Ashcroft!

Do you think of that as a good thing?
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #956 on: February 10, 2004, 12:29:50 pm »

Have to say, thanks to the great folk at Zogby, the Muslim vote in the USA is trending more Democratic now, not a majority yet, but there are many angry people out there. The renegade Catholic vote may also swing back to the Dems, of course thats just hearsay, My (Catholic)relatives in California voted Bush last time round because of the abortion issue, but that is no longer an issue with them. As they stem from a Labour voting British Catholic family- i hope they back the Dems again!

The Muslims are not going to tip any state one way or the other.  They're simply too few and too unlikely to vote.  Perhaps afraid of John Ashcroft!

Do you think of that as a good thing?

I think he was joking in that last part.  I hope he was joking on that last part.  He has a point though.  The only state where the Muslims are going to have a measurible affect on the election is Michigan.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #957 on: February 10, 2004, 12:31:13 pm »

Have to say, thanks to the great folk at Zogby, the Muslim vote in the USA is trending more Democratic now, not a majority yet, but there are many angry people out there. The renegade Catholic vote may also swing back to the Dems, of course thats just hearsay, My (Catholic)relatives in California voted Bush last time round because of the abortion issue, but that is no longer an issue with them. As they stem from a Labour voting British Catholic family- i hope they back the Dems again!

The Muslims are not going to tip any state one way or the other.  They're simply too few and too unlikely to vote.  Perhaps afraid of John Ashcroft!

Do you think of that as a good thing?

I think he was joking in that last part.  I hope he was joking on that last part.  He has a point though.  The only state where the Muslims are going to have a measurible affect on the election is Michigan.

You never know with Opebo...

Hey, that rhymes! Smiley
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #958 on: February 10, 2004, 12:37:04 pm »

Oh, sorry about that.  Neat Map Miami.  Anyway, what 'perfect storm of events' is happening in Ohio?  As far as I can tell, a very ordinary, somewhat conservative state is experiencing some excessive localized unemployment, but it will probably trend in the right direction over the next 10 months.  I think everything other than unemployement favors Republicans in Ohio.
Ohio has one fof the highest muslim populations in the USA, also, which will swing the state to Bush.  Also, Gov. Taft is VERY unpopular in Ohio, a Republican.  I don't see how anything going on helps the GOP in Ohio.

The only place where there is a significant Muslim population in Ohio is Cinncinati and that is a BLACK Muslim population.  They wouldn't vote for Bush anyway.  Gov. Taft is unpopular because he RAISED taxes, I don't see how that plays well for the Democrats seeing as the Republican legislature is the group that is most pissed-off by Taft's actions.
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Nym90
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« Reply #959 on: February 10, 2004, 01:43:12 pm »

Given some of Opebo's other comments, I wouldn't treat anything he says as a joke. He's made it clear that Bush should do anything and everything to win this election, no matter what. A little Justice Dept. harassment of Muslims to get them not to vote is nothing compared to faking Bin Laden's capture.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #960 on: February 10, 2004, 02:03:59 pm »

And I'm the one that chose "realpolitik" as my user name...
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Gustaf
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« Reply #961 on: February 10, 2004, 02:15:23 pm »

And I'm the one that chose "realpolitik" as my user name...

Lol...you're not as cynical as he is.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #962 on: February 10, 2004, 02:30:06 pm »

Depends on what you mean by cynicism Wink
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tweed
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« Reply #963 on: February 10, 2004, 03:41:21 pm »

Reasons why Kerry will win Ohio:

1. Many-a-job lost in OH since Bush took office
2. Governor Taft's unpopularity
3. High Muslim population
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Nym90
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« Reply #964 on: February 10, 2004, 03:53:58 pm »

Indeed, those will all be key factors. It would be nice to see some new polls in Ohio, unfortunatley there hasn't been anything for quite some time.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #965 on: February 10, 2004, 03:55:56 pm »

Indeed, those will all be key factors. It would be nice to see some new polls in Ohio, unfortunatley there hasn't been anything for quite some time.
Last poll from Ohio was realeased 9/19!!!
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Saratoga2DM
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« Reply #966 on: February 10, 2004, 03:57:05 pm »

Hey all:

Regardless of which candidate gets the nomination, Ohio will be an uphill battle for the Democrats.  Bush won it in 2000 by at least 150,000 votes, but then again all of us could be in for a surprise come election time.  

 
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #967 on: February 10, 2004, 03:58:56 pm »

Hey all:

Regardless of which candidate gets the nomination, Ohio will be an uphill battle for the Democrats.  Bush won it in 2000 by at least 150,000 votes, but then again all of us could be in for a surprise come election time.  
He didn't break 50%.
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #968 on: February 10, 2004, 04:01:10 pm »

Reasons why Kerry will win Ohio:

1. Many-a-job lost in OH since Bush took office
2. Governor Taft's unpopularity
3. High Muslim population

I don't feel like retyping, so I'll just copy and paste what I said earlier....

The only place where there is a significant Muslim population in Ohio is Cinncinati and that is a BLACK Muslim population.  They wouldn't vote for Bush anyway.  Gov. Taft is unpopular because he RAISED taxes, I don't see how that plays well for the Democrats seeing as the Republican legislature is the group that is most pissed-off by Taft's actions.

Second, I can't believe that you guys acctually think Bush is so aweful that he will harass muslim voters or fake Bin Laden's capture.  That's not a joke, those are some serious accusations.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #969 on: February 10, 2004, 04:03:10 pm »

Reasons why Kerry will win Ohio:

1. Many-a-job lost in OH since Bush took office
2. Governor Taft's unpopularity
3. High Muslim population

I don't feel like retyping, so I'll just copy and paste what I said earlier....

The only place where there is a significant Muslim population in Ohio is Cinncinati and that is a BLACK Muslim population.  They wouldn't vote for Bush anyway.  Gov. Taft is unpopular because he RAISED taxes, I don't see how that plays well for the Democrats seeing as the Republican legislature is the group that is most pissed-off by Taft's actions.

Second, I can't believe that you guys acctually think Bush is so aweful that he will harass muslim voters or fake Bin Laden's capture.  That's not a joke, those are some serious accusations.

The only one to suggest that is Opebo, I have, for one, contradicted it.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #970 on: February 10, 2004, 04:06:29 pm »

Reasons why Kerry will win Ohio:

1. Many-a-job lost in OH since Bush took office
2. Governor Taft's unpopularity
3. High Muslim population

I don't feel like retyping, so I'll just copy and paste what I said earlier....

The only place where there is a significant Muslim population in Ohio is Cinncinati and that is a BLACK Muslim population.  They wouldn't vote for Bush anyway.  Gov. Taft is unpopular because he RAISED taxes, I don't see how that plays well for the Democrats seeing as the Republican legislature is the group that is most pissed-off by Taft's actions.

Second, I can't believe that you guys acctually think Bush is so aweful that he will harass muslim voters or fake Bin Laden's capture.  That's not a joke, those are some serious accusations.
1. Provide a census result showing that a large portion o Ohio's muslim population voted for Gore.

2. Opebo, a Republican, suggested Bush might fake UBL's captured, and I agreed, he might.
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12th Doctor
supersoulty
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« Reply #971 on: February 10, 2004, 04:10:59 pm »

Reasons why Kerry will win Ohio:

1. Many-a-job lost in OH since Bush took office
2. Governor Taft's unpopularity
3. High Muslim population

I don't feel like retyping, so I'll just copy and paste what I said earlier....

The only place where there is a significant Muslim population in Ohio is Cinncinati and that is a BLACK Muslim population.  They wouldn't vote for Bush anyway.  Gov. Taft is unpopular because he RAISED taxes, I don't see how that plays well for the Democrats seeing as the Republican legislature is the group that is most pissed-off by Taft's actions.

Second, I can't believe that you guys acctually think Bush is so aweful that he will harass muslim voters or fake Bin Laden's capture.  That's not a joke, those are some serious accusations.
1. Provide a census result showing that a large portion o Ohio's muslim population voted for Gore.

2. Opebo, a Republican, suggested Bush might fake UBL's captured, and I agreed, he might.

Obebo is a nazi and he probably think it was a good move, my issue is with you and how a rational person could think such a thing.  Let me find some data for the first.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #972 on: February 10, 2004, 04:23:05 pm »

Obebo is a nazi and he probably think it was a good move, my issue is with you and how a rational person could think such a thing.  Let me find some data for the first.
I could see 95% of people doing it if they felt their re-election hopes were next to dead without it, or their re-election hopes were 100% if they faked it.  Obvious, if the capture of UBL is announced on 11/1/04, it will look fake, but if it announce in September, it may not.
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Nym90
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« Reply #973 on: February 10, 2004, 04:46:47 pm »

I don't think that Bush would do those things, I was merely criticizing Opebo who has stated that he thinks Bush should do those things. I fully realize that Opebo is not representative of and does not speak for Bush and the Republican party.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #974 on: February 10, 2004, 04:48:18 pm »

Reasons why Kerry will win Ohio:

1. Many-a-job lost in OH since Bush took office
2. Governor Taft's unpopularity
3. High Muslim population

I don't feel like retyping, so I'll just copy and paste what I said earlier....

The only place where there is a significant Muslim population in Ohio is Cinncinati and that is a BLACK Muslim population.  They wouldn't vote for Bush anyway.  Gov. Taft is unpopular because he RAISED taxes, I don't see how that plays well for the Democrats seeing as the Republican legislature is the group that is most pissed-off by Taft's actions.

Second, I can't believe that you guys acctually think Bush is so aweful that he will harass muslim voters or fake Bin Laden's capture.  That's not a joke, those are some serious accusations.
1. Provide a census result showing that a large portion o Ohio's muslim population voted for Gore.

2. Opebo, a Republican, suggested Bush might fake UBL's captured, and I agreed, he might.

Obebo is a nazi and he probably think it was a good move, my issue is with you and how a rational person could think such a thing.  Let me find some data for the first.

HE claims to be a classic liberal though... Wink
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