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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 818111 times)
tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1125 on: February 20, 2004, 11:29:30 am »

Sounds about right, firefly.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1126 on: February 20, 2004, 11:30:47 am »

Run Roy Run!
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tweed
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« Reply #1127 on: February 20, 2004, 11:34:08 am »

BTW, I like the 'draftmoore04' URL.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1128 on: February 20, 2004, 11:35:05 am »

Agreed.
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tweed
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« Reply #1129 on: February 20, 2004, 11:37:37 am »

Go to my forum, we can discuss the web design a little.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1130 on: February 20, 2004, 02:48:29 pm »

As much as I despise Roy Moore...run! Suck a few percent from Bush so the Dems can take Florida, Louisiana and so on...gosh its such a BRILLIANT plan!! Gimme water!
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SeattleSquirrel
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« Reply #1131 on: February 20, 2004, 04:32:01 pm »

My analysis shows the Democrats winning these states in 2004:  California, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin; for a total of 255 delegates.  

Republicans win these states in 2004:  Alabama, Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, N. Carolina, N. Dakota, Oklahoma, S. Carolina, S. Dakota, Texas, Utah, Virgina, Wyoming; for a total of 170 delegates.

Of the remaining "battleground" states, I predict that Democrats should win W. Virginia and New Hampshire, bringing their total to 264.

I predict that Republicans will likely win Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana, Nevada, and Tennessee, bringing their total to 238.

This leaves Missouri (11 delegates), New Mexico (5 delegates) and Ohio (20 delegates).  

New Mexico is the reason for Bush's otherwise incomprehensible new immigration policy.  I believe that this will not sway voters enough and NM will stay Democratic.

This brings up the intriguing possibility of a 269 to 269 result!  

I expect Ohio to remain narrowly Republican, which makes Missouri the big question mark this year.  If Bush can somehow sway New Mexico in his favor, however, he could easily win re-election.  Even if he doesn't, there's a good chance of a tie.  (I wonder what happens then... it's been too long since I read up on that.)
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classical liberal
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« Reply #1132 on: February 20, 2004, 04:40:26 pm »

The election goes to the House of Representatives
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SeattleSquirrel
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« Reply #1133 on: February 20, 2004, 04:43:58 pm »

There is also the chance that W. Virginia could remain Republican; if this occurred and New Mexico also went Bush's way, the Democrats would be faced with a must-win situation in Missouri.  This would give them the victory, 270 to 268.  

Missouri is especially intriguing to me this year for the above reasons.  It should be noted that of the 11 "battleground states" listed above, Bush Sr. beat Dukakis by the lowest margin in Missouri in 1988.  Missouri went Democratic in 1992 and 1996; then in 2000, went Republican by the fourth-smallest margin behind Florida, New Mexico and New Hampshire.  This shows great promise for the Democrats, and I expect them to concentrate their efforts there to guard against a possible upset in New Mexico.
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Brutus
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« Reply #1134 on: February 20, 2004, 05:05:29 pm »

The election goes to the House of Representatives

What a nightmare scenario.  Does anyone have any thoughts about the possibility of another result that gives Bush the electoral majority but has the Democrats winning the popular vote?
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muon2
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« Reply #1135 on: February 20, 2004, 06:04:47 pm »

The election goes to the House of Representatives

What a nightmare scenario.  Does anyone have any thoughts about the possibility of another result that gives Bush the electoral majority but has the Democrats winning the popular vote?
It's very early to consider that possibility. Furthermore, it would be historic. I believe the popular vote has never been lost by an incumbent who had no challenge for the nomination, and who had a net gain for his party in the House over the two preceding House elections.
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1136 on: February 20, 2004, 06:13:00 pm »

The election goes to the House of Representatives

What a nightmare scenario.  Does anyone have any thoughts about the possibility of another result that gives Bush the electoral majority but has the Democrats winning the popular vote?

Well, that's just it; this time around, it looks like Bush is the one who is at risk of winding up with the popular vote but losing in the Electoral College.

From where I'm sitting, Bush has to have just under a 52% approval rating to win.

This is doesn't sound like too demanding a hurdle to clear, but his average poll ratings at the moment are under that.

Here are the last eight that I have a hold of:

Gallup   2/7/04   52
   ABC   2/10/04   50
Gallup   2/11/04   51
   CBS   2/14/04   50
   Pew   2/15/04   48
Harris   2/15/04   51
Gallup   2/17/04   51
   Fox   2/18/04   48

Note: I use the day before the end date of a survey as the timestamp.

Worst case scenario (for purposes of Constitutional law and general civil unrest): There is a (highly unlikely) change of control in the House of Representatives AND there is a tie in the Electoral College.

Yikes.

On the other hand, I'd be content with taking back Congress. Divided government is good. Smiley
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1137 on: February 20, 2004, 06:15:03 pm »
« Edited: February 20, 2004, 06:15:35 pm by cskendrick »

The election goes to the House of Representatives

What a nightmare scenario.  Does anyone have any thoughts about the possibility of another result that gives Bush the electoral majority but has the Democrats winning the popular vote?
It's very early to consider that possibility. Furthermore, it would be historic. I believe the popular vote has never been lost by an incumbent who had no challenge for the nomination, and who had a net gain for his party in the House over the two preceding House elections.

Those are some significant qualifiers.

Is there anyone other than George W. Bush who is in that box? Smiley
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1138 on: February 20, 2004, 06:27:38 pm »

My Nailbiters

Conditions - Bush's approval ratings going into the election are right on the cusp, votes are decided by less than 0.5% in each case.

In the case of Ohio (remember, we're going out of our way to cause a crisis here) it's a tie.

Not a statistical dead heat; a tie.

1. Ohio
2. Nevada
3. Iowa
4. New Hampshire
5. Missouri
6. New Mexico

The good news is that reality is NEVER so capricious.

I mean, when's the last time that the deciding state's votes were so close that there were...recounts...court appearances...hanging chads... Smiley

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classical liberal
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« Reply #1139 on: February 20, 2004, 09:38:59 pm »

cskendrick

where do you get your data?
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muon2
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« Reply #1140 on: February 20, 2004, 11:29:50 pm »

The election goes to the House of Representatives

What a nightmare scenario.  Does anyone have any thoughts about the possibility of another result that gives Bush the electoral majority but has the Democrats winning the popular vote?
It's very early to consider that possibility. Furthermore, it would be historic. I believe the popular vote has never been lost by an incumbent who had no challenge for the nomination, and who had a net gain for his party in the House over the two preceding House elections.

Those are some significant qualifiers.

Is there anyone other than George W. Bush who is in that box? Smiley
GWB is in excellent company, since 1860 (GOP vs DEM) the situation has happened five other times:
Lincoln 1864
T Roosevelt 1904
F Roosevelt 1936
Eisenhower 1956
Reagan 1984

Every incumbent in that period with both those other factors against lost reelection (4 times).
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GOPman
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« Reply #1141 on: February 21, 2004, 12:57:21 am »

Thank you, everybody.

Here's what I did on short notice: I swapped 5% of the electorate from one side to the other, depending on the straw poll of suggestions here.

Figuring it prudent, I boosted the conservative count in Texas, as well...not that I needed to. Smiley

I might contest the suggestion that Tennessee is reliably Republican, given its Democratic governor. But two years ago, South Carolina had a Dem governor, too, so I will concede the point.

Adjusted to More Republican: Texas, Tennesee, Florida

Adjusted to More Democrat: Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia.

Breakdown of Southern State, version 2.0 Smiley

Reliably Republican
1. Texas
2. Mississippi
3. Kentucky (border state)
4. South Carolina
5. Georgia
6. Alabama

Leans Republican
7. North Carolina
8. Tennessee
9. Louisiana
10. Arkansas

Leans Democrat
11. Virginia
12. Florida
13. West Virginia (border state)
14. Missouri (border state)

Reliably Democrat
15. Maryland (border state)

You know, this makes a lot more sense.

Thanks, folks!

NOTE: The Pew report came out today; the moving average of nationwide Bush approval ratings (which I use to drive my predictions) now stands at 50.50. This information is incorporated here:

You can't look at Govs races as an indicator for the direction a state votes. You have to look at the past presidential elections, and factor those together. West Va would be considered more democratic, however I believe that they will go Bush this time.

Florida on the other hand has ALWAYS been solid GOP. This notion about how it leans democratic must be coming from the close election of 2000. FL went GOP in 1992, and would have went GOP in 1996 had Perot not been running. Clinton did not win but by a few points. I think with all that in mind you have to consider 2000 as more a fluke for being so close. Since 2000, more people in FL are now registered GOP than Dem, the first time in the state! FL doesn't lean GOP, it will be reliably GOP in 2004.

If you look at the LA Gov race, you had basically identical candidates for Gov. It was an off year so the GOP expected to do worse than normal. Had you had a John "F" Kerry run in LA, GOP would have won big time. The Dems win in the south with a "moderate" dem, or at least in Edwards case, a "perceived" moderate.
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1142 on: February 21, 2004, 01:42:54 am »


The job approval data is publicly available; I use www.pollingreport.com as my source of first resort. It's easy and the tables I am interested in are free.

The rating of each state by a "Conservative Percentage") is derived from the voting history of the last three presidential elections (1992 1996 2000), extrapolated forward to 2004.

The sensitivity of each state to a change in Bush's approval ratings is updated using the by-party breakout of Bush numbers. The greater the "conservative" factor, the more the state's predicted electoral behavior converges on Republicans' views of Mr. Bush, and vice-versa.

It works pretty well, I think. Right now, Bush's approval ratings are under what he needs to secure re-election, and my assessments of the states are based on that, not any predicted approval rating.

If I have to place a bet down, I'd say this one's going to be a close, dirty expensive contest...and I'd be saying nothing new or interesting. Smiley

Not sure if I answered the question, but it's late and I've got one more post to reply to before turning in.

Until next time...
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Platypus
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« Reply #1143 on: February 21, 2004, 01:42:59 am »

The florida race was so close because of the bring 5 campaign, where african-americans were encouraged to bring five friends and relatives with them when they voted.

Whilst it was highly sucessful for those who were allowed to vote...
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cskendrick
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« Reply #1144 on: February 21, 2004, 01:47:52 am »

The election goes to the House of Representatives

What a nightmare scenario.  Does anyone have any thoughts about the possibility of another result that gives Bush the electoral majority but has the Democrats winning the popular vote?
It's very early to consider that possibility. Furthermore, it would be historic. I believe the popular vote has never been lost by an incumbent who had no challenge for the nomination, and who had a net gain for his party in the House over the two preceding House elections.

Those are some significant qualifiers.

Is there anyone other than George W. Bush who is in that box? Smiley
GWB is in excellent company, since 1860 (GOP vs DEM) the situation has happened five other times:
Lincoln 1864
T Roosevelt 1904
F Roosevelt 1936
Eisenhower 1956
Reagan 1984

Every incumbent in that period with both those other factors against lost reelection (4 times).

Ah. It's not as rare a combo as I originally thought.

I'd be careful about historical determinism in politics, though.

The Democrats got exactly what they deserved in 2002 for assuming that historical trends would be friendly.

Human beings make or break their own destiny.

But I don't have to tell Republicans that. Smiley

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cskendrick
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« Reply #1145 on: February 21, 2004, 02:15:56 am »

Thank you, everybody.

Here's what I did on short notice: I swapped 5% of the electorate from one side to the other, depending on the straw poll of suggestions here.

Figuring it prudent, I boosted the conservative count in Texas, as well...not that I needed to. Smiley

I might contest the suggestion that Tennessee is reliably Republican, given its Democratic governor. But two years ago, South Carolina had a Dem governor, too, so I will concede the point.

Adjusted to More Republican: Texas, Tennesee, Florida

Adjusted to More Democrat: Louisiana, Arkansas, West Virginia.

Breakdown of Southern State, version 2.0 Smiley

Reliably Republican
1. Texas
2. Mississippi
3. Kentucky (border state)
4. South Carolina
5. Georgia
6. Alabama

Leans Republican
7. North Carolina
8. Tennessee
9. Louisiana
10. Arkansas

Leans Democrat
11. Virginia
12. Florida
13. West Virginia (border state)
14. Missouri (border state)

Reliably Democrat
15. Maryland (border state)

You know, this makes a lot more sense.

Thanks, folks!

NOTE: The Pew report came out today; the moving average of nationwide Bush approval ratings (which I use to drive my predictions) now stands at 50.50. This information is incorporated here:

You can't look at Govs races as an indicator for the direction a state votes. You have to look at the past presidential elections, and factor those together. West Va would be considered more democratic, however I believe that they will go Bush this time.

Florida on the other hand has ALWAYS been solid GOP. This notion about how it leans democratic must be coming from the close election of 2000. FL went GOP in 1992, and would have went GOP in 1996 had Perot not been running. Clinton did not win but by a few points. I think with all that in mind you have to consider 2000 as more a fluke for being so close. Since 2000, more people in FL are now registered GOP than Dem, the first time in the state! FL doesn't lean GOP, it will be reliably GOP in 2004.

If you look at the LA Gov race, you had basically identical candidates for Gov. It was an off year so the GOP expected to do worse than normal. Had you had a John "F" Kerry run in LA, GOP would have won big time. The Dems win in the south with a "moderate" dem, or at least in Edwards case, a "perceived" moderate.

First off: I am not looking at gubernatorial races as a driver for my model, I am not sure what you are getting at, and I am incorporating the last few presidential elections.

WEST VIRGINIA - Darn it. I just knew I shouldn't have gotten in the business of manual adjustments yesterday.

Yesterday, I took a suggestion to tweak my predictions for West Virginia...now I hear the exact opposite from you.

Ruling: I'm moving WV back to the original settings and keeping it there!

FLORIDA: This adjustment I will keep; I boosted Florida's "Conservative Quotient" (that has a nice ring to it) already, per the consensus suggestion yesterday.

All Bush has to do is keep his approval ratings from falling any lower and he'll win the Sunshine State. That's not going to be difficult now, is it?

LOUISIANA: I stand by this one. Bush clears Lousiana even if his nationwide ratings fall below 49%.

What I don't get is that in your first paragraph, you tell me not to concern myself with gubernatorial races, and here you create a fantasy football league situation in which a candidate from Massachusetts runs for Lousiana governor. Of course he'd be killed. He's not from Louisiana!

And Trent Lott would be killed if he ran for governor in Michigan; things that Mississippians are willing to accept or overlook, the Michiganders won't.

That's why I don't get into these fantasy football discussions, save to make light of them. Smiley



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opebo
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« Reply #1146 on: February 21, 2004, 03:18:52 am »

The florida race was so close because of the bring 5 campaign, where african-americans were encouraged to bring five friends and relatives with them when they voted.

Whilst it was highly sucessful for those who were allowed to vote...

Five real friends or five imaginary friends?

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cskendrick
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« Reply #1147 on: February 21, 2004, 08:38:16 am »

The florida race was so close because of the bring 5 campaign, where african-americans were encouraged to bring five friends and relatives with them when they voted.

Whilst it was highly sucessful for those who were allowed to vote...

Five real friends or five imaginary friends?



There are allegations that Katherine Harris used her office as FL Secretary of State to give Republicans a boost in the 2000 election.

Specifically, that she engaged in selective purging of the voter rolls on the eve of the 2000 election.

It's a testable hypothesis.

I'd like to hear more about how we can test for real versus imaginary voters.

Sounds like a useful confidence test in instances where the mechanism of tallying votes is suspect, invisible...or proprietary.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #1148 on: February 21, 2004, 11:17:00 am »

The florida race was so close because of the bring 5 campaign, where african-americans were encouraged to bring five friends and relatives with them when they voted.

Whilst it was highly sucessful for those who were allowed to vote...

Five real friends or five imaginary friends?



There are allegations that Katherine Harris used her office as FL Secretary of State to give Republicans a boost in the 2000 election.

Specifically, that she engaged in selective purging of the voter rolls on the eve of the 2000 election.

It's a testable hypothesis.

I'd like to hear more about how we can test for real versus imaginary voters.

Sounds like a useful confidence test in instances where the mechanism of tallying votes is suspect, invisible...or proprietary.

There is proof of dead people voting in Missouri.
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opebo
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« Reply #1149 on: February 21, 2004, 11:24:23 am »

The florida race was so close because of the bring 5 campaign, where african-americans were encouraged to bring five friends and relatives with them when they voted.

Whilst it was highly sucessful for those who were allowed to vote...

Five real friends or five imaginary friends?



There are allegations that Katherine Harris used her office as FL Secretary of State to give Republicans a boost in the 2000 election.

Specifically, that she engaged in selective purging of the voter rolls on the eve of the 2000 election.

It's a testable hypothesis.

I'd like to hear more about how we can test for real versus imaginary voters.

Sounds like a useful confidence test in instances where the mechanism of tallying votes is suspect, invisible...or proprietary.

Purging criminals is a good policy.
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