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  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 773853 times)
M
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« Reply #125 on: December 15, 2003, 09:27:54 pm »
« edited: December 15, 2003, 09:29:24 pm by M »

Approximate tally of Bush against Dems with the following platforms:

Bush is a good guy. I respect the War on Terror, believe in it, and will continue it. Tax cuts are god too. Still, I disagree with the Medicare reform bill as it currently stands.

Bayh: 55%
Bush: 45%

Bush has mismanaged the war which I support in principle. Repeal the tax cuts!

Lieberman: 52%
Bush: 48%

Give peace a chance! No war! Ever! I don't care how many Americans they blow upo, they're victims of society, and they have a different moral system! Long live Al Qaedaaaaaaaaaaa!

Bush 53%
Dean 47%

More taxes! We need more money so we can build more bureaucracy so we will need more money so we will build more bureaucracy so we will need more.....

Bush 55%
Dean 45%

The sky is orange. In the middle of the day. Really. I'm serious. Vote for me.

Bush: 57%
Dean 43%

Boing!
Bush: 60%
Rubber Ball: 40%

Just so you know what we're up against. There are so many interests that just HAVE to vote dem, the slightest bit of sense on there part would carry the day.
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #126 on: December 16, 2003, 10:04:12 pm »

I have compiled a (dynamic - it will evolve) user prediction map for the 2004 election from the over 100 user-submissions thus-far.  There are two ways of compiling the data:  The state map is compiled from the median winning candidate / percentage for each state.  The overall total from these data are added. A second method is to take the median of the total electoral vote from the predictions.  Both of these results are shown on the Prediction 2004 summary page.

Interestingly, not much change is predicted from 2000... only WV (as of this writing) changes from Bush > 50% to Bush > 40%.

Dave
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tweed
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« Reply #127 on: December 17, 2003, 08:03:20 am »

Approximate tally of Bush against Dems with the following platforms:

Bush is a good guy. I respect the War on Terror, believe in it, and will continue it. Tax cuts are god too. Still, I disagree with the Medicare reform bill as it currently stands.

Bayh: 55%
Bush: 45%

Bush has mismanaged the war which I support in principle. Repeal the tax cuts!

Lieberman: 52%
Bush: 48%

Give peace a chance! No war! Ever! I don't care how many Americans they blow upo, they're victims of society, and they have a different moral system! Long live Al Qaedaaaaaaaaaaa!

Bush 53%
Dean 47%

More taxes! We need more money so we can build more bureaucracy so we will need more money so we will build more bureaucracy so we will need more.....

Bush 55%
Dean 45%

The sky is orange. In the middle of the day. Really. I'm serious. Vote for me.

Bush: 57%
Dean 43%

Boing!
Bush: 60%
Rubber Ball: 40%

Just so you know what we're up against. There are so many interests that just HAVE to vote dem, the slightest bit of sense on there part would carry the day.
If anyone was at loss for a definition of a rant, you now are not.
Long live al-qaeda line?  Not funny.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #128 on: December 17, 2003, 09:35:32 am »


Interestingly, not much change is predicted from 2000... only WV (as of this writing) changes from Bush > 50% to Bush > 40%.

Dave

I think that may be because the 2000 election is treated as if it was permanant by a lot of people on the internet...
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M
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« Reply #129 on: December 17, 2003, 11:08:09 pm »

I did not ascribe those words or even thoughts to Dean, you will notice. Just posted it as a hypothetical platform. What would I be ranting about, anyway?

Yeah, 2000 election has been given too much importance in terms of permanent trends. Next years map will look very, very different. Mwa ha ha ha ha!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #130 on: December 18, 2003, 04:44:28 am »

...or because GOP posters have been posting big GOP wins while Dem posters have been posting big Dem wins with their being a few more GOP posters than Dems posters...
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #131 on: December 18, 2003, 09:06:01 am »

...or because GOP posters have been posting big GOP wins while Dem posters have been posting big Dem wins with their being a few more GOP posters than Dems posters...

Maybe or maybe not.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #132 on: December 18, 2003, 10:30:01 am »

I haven't seen any Democrats say that there will be a big Dem win in the EC.  
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M
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« Reply #133 on: December 18, 2003, 12:21:09 pm »

No. Most democrats predicting a victory see it as a repeat of Bush-Gore, with a few more states swinging dem. GOPers are much more likely to predict huge win, or even (as I do) a landslide.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #134 on: December 18, 2003, 01:10:52 pm »

No. Most democrats predicting a victory see it as a repeat of Bush-Gore, with a few more states swinging dem. GOPers are much more likely to predict huge win, or even (as I do) a landslide.

With Dean as the nom it will be a big win for Bush.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #135 on: December 18, 2003, 03:23:17 pm »

What happend to being objective?
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agcatter
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« Reply #136 on: December 18, 2003, 07:03:33 pm »

Ok, I'll take a stab at objectivity.  The Dem nominee will have a much tougher time keeping the states Al Gore won by 1/2 of one percent - Wisconsin, Oregon, New Mexico, and Iowa -  than George Bush will have protecting his closest states of Florida and New Hampshire.  Bush will run much tougher in California and New york than he did in 2000.  He won't win those two states but will force Dems to spend resources there they didn't have to spend in 2000.  

If Dean is the nominee, Bush carries Minn, Pa, as well.
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CHRISTOPHER MICHAE
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« Reply #137 on: December 19, 2003, 01:11:28 am »

Ok, I'll take a stab at objectivity.  The Dem nominee will have a much tougher time keeping the states Al Gore won by 1/2 of one percent - Wisconsin, Oregon, New Mexico, and Iowa -  than George Bush will have protecting his closest states of Florida and New Hampshire.  Bush will run much tougher in California and New york than he did in 2000.  He won't win those two states but will force Dems to spend resources there they didn't have to spend in 2000.  

If Dean is the nominee, Bush carries Minn, Pa, as well.
Bush carry Pennsylvania? After lifting the foreign steel tariffs? That would be quite an accomplishment.
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agcatter
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« Reply #138 on: December 19, 2003, 08:17:10 am »

Quite an accomplishment?  Against Howard Dean?  Hardly.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #139 on: December 19, 2003, 10:16:45 am »

Wonderful technical changes, it is all so easy now!!

I have added my prediction, which is based on the assumption that the race gets close. If it doesn't there is no real point in making predictions; Bush wins and there is nothing to it. If the race gets close the reasonable swing states, which a party might lose from the last election, would be: Dems: Iowa, Minnesota, New Mexico, Wisconsin and Oregon, Reps: Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and West Virginia. (You all know why so I won't go into that).

This gives the following number of vulnerable EVs: Dems 39, Reps 35. Considering that the Dems are 18 EVs down to begin with there isn't much to hope for. Some of you would probably like to put Lousiana, Arkansas and Florida among the weak states. The two latter I've made lean states, but local politics are irrelevant.

Comments are welcome!
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #140 on: December 19, 2003, 10:52:32 am »

PA Polls out this week have Bush over 50% vs everyone and 49% vs Dean.  

So yes Bush can still Carry PA , it was very close in 2000 and without PA, Dems are done.


Ok, I'll take a stab at objectivity.  The Dem nominee will have a much tougher time keeping the states Al Gore won by 1/2 of one percent - Wisconsin, Oregon, New Mexico, and Iowa -  than George Bush will have protecting his closest states of Florida and New Hampshire.  Bush will run much tougher in California and New york than he did in 2000.  He won't win those two states but will force Dems to spend resources there they didn't have to spend in 2000.  

If Dean is the nominee, Bush carries Minn, Pa, as well.
Bush carry Pennsylvania? After lifting the foreign steel tariffs? That would be quite an accomplishment.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #141 on: December 19, 2003, 01:44:03 pm »

I still think that Dean will not get the turnout from the middle Gore gotten.

PA Polls out this week have Bush over 50% vs everyone and 49% vs Dean.  

So yes Bush can still Carry PA , it was very close in 2000 and without PA, Dems are done.


Ok, I'll take a stab at objectivity.  The Dem nominee will have a much tougher time keeping the states Al Gore won by 1/2 of one percent - Wisconsin, Oregon, New Mexico, and Iowa -  than George Bush will have protecting his closest states of Florida and New Hampshire.  Bush will run much tougher in California and New york than he did in 2000.  He won't win those two states but will force Dems to spend resources there they didn't have to spend in 2000.  

If Dean is the nominee, Bush carries Minn, Pa, as well.
Bush carry Pennsylvania? After lifting the foreign steel tariffs? That would be quite an accomplishment.
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John
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« Reply #142 on: December 19, 2003, 01:46:42 pm »

People will chose who they want to put States in the bush Side or Democarts Side
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #143 on: December 19, 2003, 01:50:39 pm »

People will chose who they want to put States in the bush Side or Democarts Side


Who said they wouldn't?
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M
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« Reply #144 on: December 19, 2003, 01:53:14 pm »

Wait, I think I just gt a joke by John! See, if the emocRAts are democARts, then you put states in them like in a grocery store.... or.... something....

Maybe Limberman means that he's physically fit, ie fiscally fit! Ha ha, good one, John. And Shapapatron sounds techno, maybe that is an ironic jab at Sharpton's modernity, ie, really he's a throwback to the past. And Swwager souds like a sucking noise, meaing he's pulling the California center away from dems. Hey, John is pretty funny! Anyone want to have a go at interpreting some of his other jokes?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #145 on: December 19, 2003, 01:55:46 pm »

Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #146 on: December 19, 2003, 01:56:59 pm »

Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?

Anybody can make a joke whenever they want in here.  It's not against the rules.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #147 on: December 19, 2003, 02:00:28 pm »

I'm not against making jokes. I just doubt that someone would dedicate a lot of time to joining a forum wih making jokes as the only purpose. That is fine by me, I love jokes, I just wouldn't have that as my only activity in a serious forum.
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English
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« Reply #148 on: December 19, 2003, 05:22:55 pm »

I find it hard to believe John has a problem spelling, it is far too contrived! I mean Joe Limberman?!
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #149 on: December 19, 2003, 08:57:37 pm »

I find it hard to believe John has a problem spelling, it is far too contrived! I mean Joe Limberman?!

It is possible that Joe was a gymnist.  Smiley
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