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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 820564 times)
agcatter
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« Reply #175 on: December 24, 2003, 08:43:53 pm »

Arkansas and Louisiana will vote for a northern liberal when pigs fly.  It's not going to be easy for Dean to try to slide to the center after he's run hard left for months before and during the primaries.  Also, Bush has 170 million during the primary season to define Dean as the leftist he is.  Think of all that beautiful footage the Bush campaign will have of Dean playing to the left base during all those Democratic debates.  They will run it in their ads over and over and over.......
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Cigarettes & Saints
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« Reply #176 on: December 25, 2003, 11:32:20 pm »

you all are really underestimating Dean. He's hardly some ultra-liberal, and is really much more like Clinton than anything else. He's even to the right of Kerry and probably even Clark. What type of ultraliberal has an A rating from the NRA? Calling him an Al-qaeda sympathizer is just ridiculous, and incredibly immature.

anyway, I don't think Minnesota will go to Bush. Whle Gore did win it by only about 2%, Nader took around 5%. He won't get that much this time. If he runs again, he'll make very little of an impact due to the far left just wanting Bush out. I'd say his run would be more comparable to Buchanan's last year.

anyway, the breakdown of Minnesota. First you have the Twin Cities. These are solidly Democratic and Bush doesn't have a prayer of making it anywhere in here. However Nader got 10% in Minneapolis. Like I said before, that won't happen this time. So it means more solidly Democratic votes. Then there's the northwest. While this area is fairly socially conservative, it is still one of the most solidly Democratic regions of the country. Gore got over 60% in Duluth and even did well in the outer surrounding parts of it. This is actually the most solidly Democratic part of the state, since Humphrey won it over Jesse Ventura, while Ventura won the Twin Cities. If it comes close to a Republican, it's due to gun issues, since it's a big hunting region. A pro-gun Democrat like Dean is unbeatable here. He'll get at least 55% here, and over 60% in the Twin Cities.

Then there's the south where I live. This is a pretty diverse region. Some towns like Albert Lea are traditionally Democratic and remain it. Others like Rochester are pretty Republican. There are lots of college towns here (including where I live and go to school). The district here narrowly went to Bush due to the large influence of the western part and Rochester, but it can be won. Neutralizing the gun issue will also help big time.

The Twin Cities suburbs range from how inward they are, the innermost being very Democratic to the outer ones being solidly Republican. However the ones where the majority of the population lives are a socially liberal/fiscally conservative bunch. Bush won most of these places by narrow margins, but with his far right social record to attack him on, and a fiscally conservative Democrat like Dean against him, it could tilt Democratic.

Then there's the west. While not as solidly Republican as the Dakotas, it is still pretty Republican. Bush will still do fine here. However I don't think it'll be enough. As for Minnesota having a Republican governor, that won't help. He's pretty unpopular, and isn't liked by anyone besides the Republican base, the 44% who elected.

And Pennsylvania will also stay Democratic. After all Rendell won in a landslide and he was the mayor of an ultra liberal city following a popular Republican governor. If he can do it, a governor of a rural state like Dean sure can.

I'm trying to put up my map, but my comp keeps screwing up when I submit it. I'll keep trying though.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #177 on: December 26, 2003, 06:34:47 am »

Nader only won 5% in MN last time because of LaDuke, who seems to be popular in the North of the state.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #178 on: December 26, 2003, 06:40:24 am »

I wouldn't be so confident.

Granted, West Virginia is a very very very (you get the point) socially conservative state. Its also very evangelical. Democrats still vastly outnumber Republicans and lets face it, West Virginians vote for democrats even when they're socially moderate or even liberal (Dukakis, Clinton [Twice]). If Dean moves to the center come election season, as we know he has to (you can only try the Barry Goldwater strategy once or twice before people place electablilty ahead of principles)

Same thing goes for Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana...granted they're far more Republican by nature...its not like a moderate or even Liberal democrat can't carry these states...I doubt conservatives thought Clinton a socially conservative candidate, but yet all 3 states went for Clinton in 92 and 96.

Now am I saying that Tennessee or Arkansas will land in Dean's column come November...its not likely, the GOP has a pretty good machine in those two states and with the exception of TN Gov (where the last R was pretty unpopular) the GOP has the momentum.  Louisiana (a catholic state) where the democrats have a pretty well oiled machine could go the way of Dean or Clark providing they present a reasonably mainstream image...but that remains to be seen.

The Democrats won over 60% of the vote in WV in the last congressional election.
Every single elected state-wide official in WV has a little D next to his/her name.

The Republicans have a machine in Arkansas outside the Ozarks?
Huckabee is the only popular Republican in the state... and his popularity is waning.
TN is going to close(as always. Amazing what a bit of good ol' fashioned sectional voting can do...)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #179 on: December 26, 2003, 06:47:44 am »

I always thought it looked more like an "I" (with large top and a large bottom)[although the bottom runs into Pittsburgh and suburban Philly and some of those counties can go democratic so its more accurate to call it a T-the entire stateline with New York goes Republican, Erie county on occasion as well)

PA politics is confusing at times. In national elections for president, the SE has voted for the more liberal (socially) candidate as long as he doesn't talk about borrowing and spending (fiscally moderate or even conservative) the West is the opposite. So in congressional elections (especially now that the GOP has drawn the districts to favor them) the East votes for Moderate, fiscally conservative republicans [free traders] or similarly positioned democrats [you don't get a liberal democrat outside the city for congressional races] while out west the republicans and democrats tend to be protectionist, socially conservative candidates.

Thats why the SE where the counties around philly are very republican, yet vote for Clinton and Gore into the 60% range while the west is predominantly democratic around Pittsburgh and Erie yet has been voting Republican as of late. So I doubt congressional candidates will be hurt since they likely share the views of their consituents. Bush however, (who was supposed to be a free trade guy) might get hurt out west.


Just a hunch though...11 months is still pretty early to predict.

The area where Democrats NEVER get elected looks like a Z.
PA is a weird state, that's certainly true, but I've always liked it anyway... probably because it's so quirky...

I'm still a bit confused as to where the Scranton/Wilkes-Barr area fits in to the East-T-West model... is it a piece of the West in the East???
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agcatter
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« Reply #180 on: December 26, 2003, 08:46:18 am »

Bush remains popular in Arkansas.  Last time I looked, Huckabee wasn't going to be on the presidential ballot.  Bush is on the ballot - and thank the lord his opponent is going to be Dean.  Write it down, Bush will carry Arkansas by at least 15 points.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #181 on: December 26, 2003, 12:03:50 pm »

Very unlikely that Bush would carry a Democrat leaning state by 15%
Stop being partizan please...

BTW Dean has not won a single vote yet.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #182 on: December 26, 2003, 12:07:21 pm »

Very unlikely that Bush would carry a Democrat leaning state by 15%
Stop being partizan please...

BTW Dean has not won a single vote yet.


Clinton won the state because he was from it.  With Dean as the nom  Bush will take by at least 10 percent.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #183 on: December 26, 2003, 12:14:00 pm »

Evidence? Dean hasn't said anything nasty about Bill has he?
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agcatter
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« Reply #184 on: December 26, 2003, 12:38:14 pm »

<Very unlikely that Bush would carry a Democratic leaning state by 15%.  Stop being partisan please....>

Partisan?  Bush's father beat Dukakis by 15.  McGovern lost by 23.  Mondale lost by 18.  Those are the last 3 northern liberals on the presidential ballot in Arkansas and the results.  Those are the voting trends in Arkansas when the voters there are presented with an opportunity to vote for a northern liberal.  My prediction is quite clearly based on past presidential voting trends, not partisanship.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #185 on: December 26, 2003, 12:39:03 pm »

Evidence? Dean hasn't said anything nasty about Bill has he?

Other then he's republican-lite no.  What i said was that the only reason Clinton won Ark was because he was from it.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #186 on: December 26, 2003, 12:39:36 pm »

Award for most insane prediction goes to Bush Nation(R-TX) who has predicted that Bush will win every state(including DC), with over 90% in all but 3 states.
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tweed
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« Reply #187 on: December 26, 2003, 01:03:45 pm »

Bush carried Arkansas by about 6% in '00.  Expect him to take it by about 10% in 2004.

Steel Tarriffs hurt Bush in WV, PA, and OH mostly.  Pa and OH are big electorally, and PA and WV now swing to Dean.  OH is still a toss.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #188 on: December 26, 2003, 01:36:18 pm »

Arkansas will depend on the candidate, Clark would win AR in a cakewalk, but I'm not sure about the others YET.

BTW please drop the Northern Liberal argument, McGovern and Mondale were both from the midwest.

Bush won't win PA now and is in big trouble in WV.
But he doesn't really need them.
He does need OH and it's a toss-up now...
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tweed
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« Reply #189 on: December 26, 2003, 01:57:14 pm »

Bush can win without all three.  278-Ohio=258+Minnesota+Iowa=275, and a victory.  And he will probably add New Mexico in his sleep.  The election will be decided in the midwest, period.
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agcatter
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« Reply #190 on: December 26, 2003, 03:18:02 pm »

Drop the northern liberal argument?   Fine.  Non southern liberal if you prefer.  No non southern liberal has carried Arkansas since 1960.  Satisfied?  Unless we're talking about a southernor (Clinton, Carter) it doesn't make a hell of a lot of difference where the lib comes from....McGovern and Mondale from the MW or Dukakis from NE...or Dean from New England for that matter.

Clark would win Arkansas in a cakewalk?  Where do you get this stuff?

Ohio is a tossup?  Uh, Bush is leading every Dem candidate by 8 - 20 points and with that kind of spread nationally there is absolutely no way Dean or anyone else is running even in Ohio.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #191 on: December 26, 2003, 03:54:33 pm »

Award for most insane prediction goes to Bush Nation(R-TX) who has predicted that Bush will win every state(including DC), with over 90% in all but 3 states.

Agreed!  No Republican will win DC in my lifetime (perhaps a good argument why it shoudl never be a state?)

But just to be fair, Minnybean, Tends, and Lovebites prediction of a 538-0 Bush loss are almost as insane, given that Bush won 3 states in 2000 by greater than 40% over Gore.
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tweed
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« Reply #192 on: December 26, 2003, 03:55:03 pm »

Ohio is a tossup.  And you talk about liberals living in a cacoon, where have you been with Bush's repeal of the steel tariffs?  On your own little separate planet?
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #193 on: December 26, 2003, 03:56:06 pm »

Award for most insane prediction goes to Bush Nation(R-TX) who has predicted that Bush will win every state(including DC), with over 90% in all but 3 states.

Agreed!  No Republican will win DC in my lifetime (perhaps a good argument why it shoudl never be a state?)

But just to be fair, Minnybean, Tends, and Lovebites prediction of a 538-0 Bush loss are almost as insane, given that Bush won 3 states in 2000 by greater than 40% over Gore.

If Bush gets a five to ten point swing in his direction it will be a lanslide.
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agcatter
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« Reply #194 on: December 26, 2003, 04:38:45 pm »

Ohio is not a tossup steel tariffs or no.  The latest national poll has Bush over Dean 55 - 37.  No way a Republican leaning state like Ohio is a "tossup" with national numbers like that.  BTW, the latest numbers came well AFTER Bush announced he was repealing the steel tariffs.  No cacoon here.  It's called reality my friend.

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Gustaf
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« Reply #195 on: December 26, 2003, 05:00:21 pm »

Currently, it is obvious that Bush will win. So talking about current polls isn't necessary. If the elction were held today Bush would win. If it is a close race, similar to 2000, Bush will probably win as well. The Dems need a lot to go their way, and currently nothing is. And that's the bottom line. And you can't accuse me for living in a cacoon, since I don't want that to happen.
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tweed
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« Reply #196 on: December 26, 2003, 05:02:22 pm »

Bush winning 55-37% means an 18.5% swing from 2000, so Bush picks up (with his margin of victory in parentheses):

Maine (13%)
Vermont (2%)
New Jersey (2%)
Maryland (1%)
Delaware (5%)
Washington (8%)
Oregon (11.5%)
California (6%)
New Mexico (12%)
Michigan (13%)
Wisconsin (12%)
Iowa (12%)
Illinois (5.5%)

So that leaves Dean with Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New York, DC, and Hawaii.  I hope that demonstrates to you that polls mean slightly less than nothing before the conventions, and especially before anyone is nominated.
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agcatter
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« Reply #197 on: December 26, 2003, 05:08:26 pm »

The only poll that counts is the one next November.  I think we can all agree on that.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #198 on: December 26, 2003, 05:15:41 pm »

With polls you should never read the headline figure, look for % undecided+other and adjust accordingly.
Also check out the outfit that conducted the poll for bias, and adjust accordingly.
Then accept that polls are a waste of time.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #199 on: December 26, 2003, 05:18:15 pm »

Bush only has 55% in Ohio?

one year before his re-election?

When they talk about incumbents (usually senators) polling only in the low to mid 50s 11 or 12 months before an election in a state, it usually means those incumbents are vulnerable.

Bush is likely safe in Ohio, for now, but given he won it in 2000 and supposedly has high approval ratings, for him to only get 55% right now (as elections draw to a close, undecideds usually favor the challenger) is kinda low.

In PA Bush only breaks 50% in a few polls. Granted he has an 8-11point edge over Dean, but when you can't or barely break 50% 11 months before, you are more vulnerable than you think.
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