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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #200 on: December 26, 2003, 05:32:15 pm »

Bush only has 55% in Ohio?

one year before his re-election?

When they talk about incumbents (usually senators) polling only in the low to mid 50s 11 or 12 months before an election in a state, it usually means those incumbents are vulnerable.

Bush is likely safe in Ohio, for now, but given he won it in 2000 and supposedly has high approval ratings, for him to only get 55% right now (as elections draw to a close, undecideds usually favor the challenger) is kinda low.

In PA Bush only breaks 50% in a few polls. Granted he has an 8-11point edge over Dean, but when you can't or barely break 50% 11 months before, you are more vulnerable than you think.
No, he has 55% nationally.  I have not found an Ohio poll.
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agcatter
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« Reply #201 on: December 26, 2003, 05:36:49 pm »

Nor have I seen any specific Ohio polls.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #202 on: December 26, 2003, 05:41:23 pm »

Nor have I seen any specific Ohio polls.
Haha, this is the first time I have found myself in agreement with you, Agcat!  Smiley
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agcatter
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« Reply #203 on: December 26, 2003, 07:04:12 pm »

There is a website entitled the Hedgehog Report  It contains daily polls from around the nation.  State Dem primary polls, state general election matchup polls, Dean vs Bush, Kerry vs Bush etc.  Quite interesting.  It's worth a look for all us political junkies.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #204 on: December 26, 2003, 07:43:40 pm »

What's the web adress?
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agcatter
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« Reply #205 on: December 26, 2003, 10:13:45 pm »

www.davidwissing.com

A guy out of Maryland maintains and updates the site.  If you scroll down on the site you get a lot of primary state Democratic polls that are hard to find anywhere else - Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Oklahoma for example.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #206 on: December 27, 2003, 04:15:27 am »

When I look at these polls it doesn't really seem that Dean is doing worse against Bush than the supposedly more electable and well-known candidates, such as Clark, Gephardt, Lieberman or Edwards. Is that just lack of name-recognition?  
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #207 on: December 27, 2003, 10:27:09 am »

When I look at these polls it doesn't really seem that Dean is doing worse against Bush than the supposedly more electable and well-known candidates, such as Clark, Gephardt, Lieberman or Edwards. Is that just lack of name-recognition?  
Yes.  Polls mean nothing right now.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #208 on: December 27, 2003, 12:17:52 pm »

When I look at these polls it doesn't really seem that Dean is doing worse against Bush than the supposedly more electable and well-known candidates, such as Clark, Gephardt, Lieberman or Edwards. Is that just lack of name-recognition?  

Wait until Bush starts going after Dean.  And with Deans temper it's going to be fun.
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afleitch
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« Reply #209 on: December 28, 2003, 11:03:39 am »

Most of you are probably aware of the 31-31-31 theory. For the first time since it was analysed, America is split into three even camps of Dems, Reps and Inds. That 31% who hold no affiliation are those who will decide the election. Theres no point in either party trying to target the 31% in their own camp, those votes are in the bag. This trend should lead to a more 'centrist' political campaign. Deans campaign for one, is skewed in favour of those he knows are going to vote for him anyway. This is a big mistake. Several months for now it will be down to Dean versus one other candidate. Because the 'anti-Dean' vote is so split between Clark, Lieberman Edwards and Kerry (purposely ignoring the other 3 candidates) I think the odds are still against Dean even at this stage.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #210 on: December 28, 2003, 12:20:55 pm »

Most of you are probably aware of the 31-31-31 theory. For the first time since it was analysed, America is split into three even camps of Dems, Reps and Inds. That 31% who hold no affiliation are those who will decide the election. Theres no point in either party trying to target the 31% in their own camp, those votes are in the bag. This trend should lead to a more 'centrist' political campaign. Deans campaign for one, is skewed in favour of those he knows are going to vote for him anyway. This is a big mistake. Several months for now it will be down to Dean versus one other candidate. Because the 'anti-Dean' vote is so split between Clark, Lieberman Edwards and Kerry (purposely ignoring the other 3 candidates) I think the odds are still against Dean even at this stage.

I am not aware of the 31-31-31 theory. Is there a brief explanation? And btw is voter turnout included or excluded in polls and so on, since turnout is so low in the US I would have thought it important. If you have 31% of the elctorate that would be enough with a turnout of 55%.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #211 on: December 28, 2003, 02:21:42 pm »

Most of you are probably aware of the 31-31-31 theory. For the first time since it was analysed, America is split into three even camps of Dems, Reps and Inds. That 31% who hold no affiliation are those who will decide the election. Theres no point in either party trying to target the 31% in their own camp, those votes are in the bag. This trend should lead to a more 'centrist' political campaign. Deans campaign for one, is skewed in favour of those he knows are going to vote for him anyway. This is a big mistake. Several months for now it will be down to Dean versus one other candidate. Because the 'anti-Dean' vote is so split between Clark, Lieberman Edwards and Kerry (purposely ignoring the other 3 candidates) I think the odds are still against Dean even at this stage.

That ads up to 93%.
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dazzleman
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« Reply #212 on: December 28, 2003, 02:29:05 pm »

Gustaf, you've hit on a good point about polls and voter turnout.

In a close election, the party that best mobilizes its base will probably win.  Each party has certain segments that would never vote for the other party, but might stay home if they are not happy with the candidates, or even go over to a third party.

In 2000, both parties had problems with their base, with many Christian conservatives staying home, and thereby costing Bush the popular vote.  On the Democratic side, there was Ralph Nader, who siphoned votes away from Gore in certain critical states, most notably Florida.

Polls that don't take likelihood of voting into account can be seriously flawed.  This is a very hard thing to gauge, which is why the polls are sometimes unreliable in predicting the winner.

Nixon had his 40-40-20 theory, that each party would receive 40% of the voters regardless, and that the 20% of the swing voters would decide the election.  There are some theories out now saying that the percentage of swing voters is down to 10%, and that therefore makes it more important for a party to mobilize its base than to go for swing voters.  Maybe this is the theory that Dean is using.

The 31-31-31 theory goes the other way.

Different presidential candidates have used different strategies.  Both Nixon and Clinton used the "last vote" strategy, meaning that they would push as far as they could to the "frontier" of their support (left for Nixon, right for Clinton) as they could without endangering their base.  Others, like Reagan, have mainly concentrated on keeping their base happy, and following through on several core ideas.

Bush seems to be emulating the Clinton strategy, with his massive increases in government spending and the prescription drug care plan.  Dean seems to be going for the base.  We'll see which approach is more successful.
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tweed
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« Reply #213 on: December 28, 2003, 02:47:42 pm »

Dean can hop to the center during the general election, so his being so far left shouldn't be a big deal.  Even now, he isn't all that liberal, buthis rhetoric is.  Bush went far right no stop McCain and moved back towards the middle in 2000, so dean can do the same.  But still, it is about Bush, not the Democratic candidate.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #214 on: December 28, 2003, 03:31:07 pm »

Dean can hop to the center during the general election, so his being so far left shouldn't be a big deal.  Even now, he isn't all that liberal, buthis rhetoric is.  Bush went far right no stop McCain and moved back towards the middle in 2000, so dean can do the same.  But still, it is about Bush, not the Democratic candidate.

The truth about that is Dean can not move to the center even if he wants to.  If he tries Bush bring out tape of him before and during the primaries.
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Demrepdan
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« Reply #215 on: December 28, 2003, 03:33:09 pm »

Dean can hop to the center during the general election, so his being so far left shouldn't be a big deal.  Even now, he isn't all that liberal, buthis rhetoric is.  Bush went far right no stop McCain and moved back towards the middle in 2000, so dean can do the same.  But still, it is about Bush, not the Democratic candidate.

Everyone is "demonizing" Dean right now, as a CRAZY far left liberal. Why? What has he done that seems so liberal? And don't give me any SOCIALLY liberal examples, like his singing the gay civil unions law in Vermont as Governor. Democrats don't think Dean can win, so they attack him with all their might. Republicans know deep down (not all Republicans, just the smart ones) that Dean could possibly beat Bush, so they attack him with all their might as well. I think Dean will move more to the center when it comes to the general election. He has already had some right wing views expressed already. Like he's against gun control. Does that sound liberal to you? So he will inexorably move to the center during the general election. He HAS to.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #216 on: December 28, 2003, 03:34:26 pm »

Dean can hop to the center during the general election, so his being so far left shouldn't be a big deal.  Even now, he isn't all that liberal, buthis rhetoric is.  Bush went far right no stop McCain and moved back towards the middle in 2000, so dean can do the same.  But still, it is about Bush, not the Democratic candidate.

Everyone is "demonizing" Dean right now, as a CRAZY far left liberal. Why? What has he done that seems so liberal? And don't give me any SOCIALLY liberal examples, like his singing the gay civil unions law in Vermont as Governor. Democrats don't think Dean can win, so they attack him with all their might. Republicans know deep down (not all Republicans, just the smart ones) that Dean could possibly beat Bush, so they attack him with all their might as well. I think Dean will move more to the center when it comes to the general election. He has already had some right wing views expressed already. Like he's against gun control. Does that sound liberal to you? So he will inexorably move to the center during the general election. He HAS to.

The only message is that Bush is evil and so is america.
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Demrepdan
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« Reply #217 on: December 28, 2003, 03:55:34 pm »

Dean can hop to the center during the general election, so his being so far left shouldn't be a big deal.  Even now, he isn't all that liberal, buthis rhetoric is.  Bush went far right no stop McCain and moved back towards the middle in 2000, so dean can do the same.  But still, it is about Bush, not the Democratic candidate.

Everyone is "demonizing" Dean right now, as a CRAZY far left liberal. Why? What has he done that seems so liberal? And don't give me any SOCIALLY liberal examples, like his singing the gay civil unions law in Vermont as Governor. Democrats don't think Dean can win, so they attack him with all their might. Republicans know deep down (not all Republicans, just the smart ones) that Dean could possibly beat Bush, so they attack him with all their might as well. I think Dean will move more to the center when it comes to the general election. He has already had some right wing views expressed already. Like he's against gun control. Does that sound liberal to you? So he will inexorably move to the center during the general election. He HAS to.

The only message is that Bush is evil and so is america.

I won't argue that he has harped on in one way or another that Bush is evil. But you're saying that he has alluded that America is evil?! Oh get off it! That sounds like a Limbaugh trick. If you hate the President, you hate this country. Blah blah blah. What the hell ever happend to freedom?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #218 on: December 28, 2003, 04:13:10 pm »

Bush IS on 55% in Ohio, but only 49% in Mississippi, and only 51% in Georgia.
He is actually polling worse in much of the Deep South than nationally.

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tweed
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« Reply #219 on: December 28, 2003, 04:16:33 pm »

Bush IS on 55% in Ohio, but only 49% in Mississippi, and only 51% in Georgia.
He is actually polling worse in much of the Deep South than nationally.


Again, do you have a link?
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agcatter
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« Reply #220 on: December 28, 2003, 04:20:27 pm »

No way  a Republican polling in the high 50s nationally is polling 10 points behing that figure in the deep South.  

Get real.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #221 on: December 28, 2003, 04:23:57 pm »

No way  a Republican polling in the high 50s nationally is polling 10 points behing that figure in the deep South.  

Get real.
I asked him for a link already, no reason to explode, buddy.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #222 on: December 28, 2003, 04:28:10 pm »

Gustaf, you've hit on a good point about polls and voter turnout.

In a close election, the party that best mobilizes its base will probably win.  Each party has certain segments that would never vote for the other party, but might stay home if they are not happy with the candidates, or even go over to a third party.

In 2000, both parties had problems with their base, with many Christian conservatives staying home, and thereby costing Bush the popular vote.  On the Democratic side, there was Ralph Nader, who siphoned votes away from Gore in certain critical states, most notably Florida.

Polls that don't take likelihood of voting into account can be seriously flawed.  This is a very hard thing to gauge, which is why the polls are sometimes unreliable in predicting the winner.

Nixon had his 40-40-20 theory, that each party would receive 40% of the voters regardless, and that the 20% of the swing voters would decide the election.  There are some theories out now saying that the percentage of swing voters is down to 10%, and that therefore makes it more important for a party to mobilize its base than to go for swing voters.  Maybe this is the theory that Dean is using.

The 31-31-31 theory goes the other way.

Different presidential candidates have used different strategies.  Both Nixon and Clinton used the "last vote" strategy, meaning that they would push as far as they could to the "frontier" of their support (left for Nixon, right for Clinton) as they could without endangering their base.  Others, like Reagan, have mainly concentrated on keeping their base happy, and following through on several core ideas.

Bush seems to be emulating the Clinton strategy, with his massive increases in government spending and the prescription drug care plan.  Dean seems to be going for the base.  We'll see which approach is more successful.

Well, thank you! Nice words are always appreciated! Now I get what the 31-31-31 thing is all about. But I am wondering if anyone know how the polls are made in this respect? If we suppose that turnout is higher among Reps and Dems than among undecided (which one would suppose) then the undecided wouldn't matter so much. If the polls are actually based on the electorate, and not on likely voters, then 35-40% would actually be well enough, if you just get all of them to vote. That seems wrong since the polls then would make no sense. But if you try to exclude people from polls it can easily backfire. Anyone got insights in what polling institutes do here?
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agcatter
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« Reply #223 on: December 28, 2003, 04:32:59 pm »

Explode?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #224 on: December 28, 2003, 04:33:47 pm »


?
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