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  2004 User Predictions - Discussion
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 820339 times)
DarthKosh
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« Reply #250 on: December 28, 2003, 06:58:00 pm »

That's why he needs to sign up for the White House tour.

Dean has to many yes-men and hardcore leftist around him and it will drag him down.
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agcatter
agcat
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« Reply #251 on: December 28, 2003, 06:59:23 pm »

I share a love of Howard Dean with liberal Democrats - for slightly different reasons.  Ha
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #252 on: December 28, 2003, 07:00:40 pm »

I share a love of Howard Dean with liberal Democrats - for slightly different reasons.  Ha

Watching Howard Dean is like watching a NASCAR race.  Because no matter what people say they only watch for one reason.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #253 on: December 28, 2003, 07:00:54 pm »

Bickering among conservatives...
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agcatter
agcat
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« Reply #254 on: December 28, 2003, 07:01:23 pm »

It's gonna be a fun ride.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #255 on: December 28, 2003, 07:02:04 pm »


A very fun ride.
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zorkpolitics
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« Reply #256 on: December 28, 2003, 08:36:21 pm »

Prediction update:  Over 300 predictions now entered!
158/306 predictors predict a Bush win with the average EV Bush = 291 and Democratic nominee = 247.  Although the average is still pretty close to the 2000 results, a bigger Bush  trend has developed over the last 100 predictions:
59/100 predict a Bush win, Bush  313 EV,  Democrat  225.  Most strikingly,  the number of landslide wins (>350 EV) predicted for Bush among the last 100 predictions is 36, almost 5 times the number of democratic landslides (7) predicted.  So at this point in time the collective wisdom of the Forum posters is for a modest Bush win.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
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« Reply #257 on: December 29, 2003, 06:19:56 am »

The link is www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Lot's of very interesting trends, even though I don't trust polls a lot...
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agcatter
agcat
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« Reply #258 on: December 29, 2003, 08:16:39 am »

interesting site
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Gustaf
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« Reply #259 on: December 29, 2003, 08:29:14 am »

The link is www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Lot's of very interesting trends, even though I don't trust polls a lot...

This site has been posted once before by someone and then been posted again by me, so this is the third time. But everyone seem equally happy each time...
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #260 on: December 29, 2003, 09:51:03 am »

The link is www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Lot's of very interesting trends, even though I don't trust polls a lot...
At least you weren't lying... Smiley
Bush is under 50% in Alabama but it shouldn't be a concern.  The Dem only has 30% there, and a candidate like Dean wouldn't have a prayer.  dean really can only make a run at Arkansas, Florida, and maybe Tennessee and Louisiana in the south.
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agcatter
agcat
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« Reply #261 on: December 29, 2003, 09:57:44 am »

I bookmarked the site.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #262 on: December 29, 2003, 10:05:50 am »

I would, but I have bookmarked 150 things and it is mighty cluttered up there....
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #263 on: December 29, 2003, 11:39:45 am »

I would, but I have bookmarked 150 things and it is mighty cluttered up there....

I have too many bookmarks now.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #264 on: December 29, 2003, 11:49:17 am »

made afew seperate folders in my favorites for national politics and newspapers by states and  such.

Just make sub categories.
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DarthKosh
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« Reply #265 on: December 29, 2003, 11:53:57 am »

made afew seperate folders in my favorites for national politics and newspapers by states and  such.

Just make sub categories.

too much trouble.
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Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
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« Reply #266 on: December 29, 2003, 12:00:23 pm »

The link is www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Lot's of very interesting trends, even though I don't trust polls a lot...
At least you weren't lying... Smiley
Bush is under 50% in Alabama but it shouldn't be a concern.  The Dem only has 30% there, and a candidate like Dean wouldn't have a prayer.  dean really can only make a run at Arkansas, Florida, and maybe Tennessee and Louisiana in the south.

You mean Mississippi? the only poll from AL was by an outfit I have never heard of and is outdated. But then I always used to get MS and AL confused as well... Smiley

The methodology of that poll is interesting and quite useful in that it shows the Incumbent's score and the score of people certain to vote against the incumbent, but also the people who will probably vote against the incumbent in a seperate list.

Most people seem to think that Dean is certain to be the Democrat nominee so a generic score is probably closer to a Dean score than one for any other candidate.

Bush seems(if the polls are even vaugely accurate) to have some problems in the Deep South at the moment(but why? Iraq causualties? poverty? general anti-incumbency? other?) and It'll be interesting to see if it stays this way.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #267 on: December 29, 2003, 12:12:30 pm »

Well for one not a lot of people are focused on General election yet.  It is a ways off and still waiting for Dems to pick a nominee.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #268 on: December 29, 2003, 12:18:46 pm »

made afew seperate folders in my favorites for national politics and newspapers by states and  such.

Just make sub categories.
I'm too lazy for that.
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jravnsbo
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« Reply #269 on: December 29, 2003, 12:47:31 pm »

oh my you guys sometimes leae yourselves wide open to a good slam Smiley

a democrat lazy, no come on!  Smiley Smiley he he
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Gustaf
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« Reply #270 on: December 30, 2003, 05:42:59 am »

I noticed before when I checked, that after, what I think was hundreds of predictions, the median was actually that every single state would vote like they did in 2000. Points at a lack of fantasy, don't you think? Smiley According to Jvravnsbo it is leaning republican now, so maybe people are really making predictions now!
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Gustaf
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« Reply #271 on: December 30, 2003, 05:52:56 am »

Btw, shouldn't tossups always be equally distributed between the parties? I notice a lot of people mark states as tossups on their confidence maps, and then hand all or most of them to one party in the prediction map. That isn't really intelectually honest, is it?  
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #272 on: December 30, 2003, 07:07:12 am »

I do it on balance of probabilities(ie: current polling shows that Bush might struggle to hold MS but I'm not sure either way, so I put it as a low D on the prediction map but tossup on the confidance map)
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Gustaf
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« Reply #273 on: December 30, 2003, 07:57:41 am »

I do it on balance of probabilities(ie: current polling shows that Bush might struggle to hold MS but I'm not sure either way, so I put it as a low D on the prediction map but tossup on the confidance map)

I just loked up your prediction map. It's interesting...you kind of go against the general view in predicting the dems doing well in the south but worse than in 2000 in other places (NM, NV, NH, etc). You have given most of the tossup EVs to the GOP, but that is acceptable since you still put the Dems as winner and is one yourself!
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #274 on: December 30, 2003, 08:09:36 am »

At the moment it looks as though Bush is polling worse in the Deep South than in most of the rest of the U.S(and this came as a shock to me. Mind you the last governor in the Deep South to be re-elected was Mike Foster in 1999...)
My map is also based on the presumption that the Dems will fight over the economy and possibly causalities in Iraq, not on social issues(and if they want to win that's what they have to do)
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