Hillary Clinton and Arkansas

[Adlai Stevenson]

How well do people think Clinton will do in Arkansas if she is the nominee?  Its unlikely she will win it barring any major shift towards her, but will she do better than Kerry in 2004 (44.55%) and Gore in 2004 (45.86%)?  Also, do you think her campaign will at all concentrate on Arkansas as part of a Southern strategy alongside possibly Virginia and Florida? 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah - I think given her history there would be a concerted effort to at least do better than the last two.

[Conan]

Supposedly people love her there.

[Alcon]

I can't imagine that'd she'd survive a good GOP smear campaign down there.

[RJ]

Could she have won a senate seat there? Bear in mind both senators from Arkansas are Democrats.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's the only southern state where she has a decent chance of winning - Bill is still MASSIVELY popular and Hillary can get carried with that.

As for the other Democrats like Pryor they basically republican-light.

But Hillary is a different case.

[agcatter]

Uh, Hillary would get killed in Arkansas.  If she poured resources into the state she might get 44%.  I hope she is that stupid.  She is not however - smartest woman in the world I hear.

A lot of people forget that Bill lost his first re-election campaign for governor.

[Raoul Takemoto]

I can't see her getting above 46-47%.  That said, AR would probably be her best southern state.

[Conan]

It's the only southern state where she has a decent chance of winning - Bill is still MASSIVELY popular and Hillary can get carried with that.

As for the other Democrats like Pryor they basically republican-light.

But Hillary is a different case.

I wouldnt call them Republican-lite. They are very much dems and their records say so.

[Conan]

Uh, Hillary would get killed in Arkansas.  If she poured resources into the state she might get 44%.  I hope she is that stupid.  She is not however - smartest woman in the world I hear.

A lot of people forget that Bill lost his first re-election campaign for governor.

You are forgetting that John Kerry got 45% here.

[jokerman]

I can't imagine that'd she'd survive a good GOP smear campaign down there.

[Michael Z]

It depends on who she's up against.

[7,052,770]

Unless she's against Huckabee, she'll probably win.

She's pretty popular there, and has the most popular Arkansan as a husband, who'll help a lot too.

[Padfoot]

In 1992 and 1996 Clinton carried the Southern States of Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri and West Virginia.  In 1992 he had Georgia and in 1996 he had Florida.  Arkansas was the only one of those states to grant him a majority (rather than a plurality) in BOTH elections.  I think given those results, combined with Democratic dominance of congressional and local races gives Hillary more than a good chance of winning Arkansas.  Wether or not she can carry any other Southern States remains to be seen.  I think her best chances are in Florida, Louisiana, West Virginia, Missouri, and Virginia in that order.

[08watch]

My order would be:

Florida
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
West Virginia
Virginia (still has a chance down to here).

[agcatter]

Bill's perception was that of a centrist when he ran.  Hillary is pereived as a lefty.   That's the difference.  Hillary doesn't carry Arkansas no way no how.  You guys are living in lala land.

[Bacon King]

Hillary could, if she manages to not get herself defined as an ultraliberal.

[opebo]

Two things could conceivably get her a surprising majority there: 1) Serious anti-republican economic backlash, 2) Husband campaigning effectively on her behalf.  The first is not unlikely - the state is abysmally poor and getting worse off, relatively speaking, in the right-wing economy.

[Padfoot]

Two things could conceivably get her a surprising majority there: 1) Serious anti-republican economic backlash, 2) Husband campaigning effectively on her behalf.  The first is not unlikely - the state is abysmally poor and getting worse off, relatively speaking, in the right-wing economy.

I would add a conservative running as an independent to that list.  I think that it is conceivable given a Guliani or even McCain win in the GOP primary that a more conservative candidate would run as an independent.

[TomC]

A lot of people forget that Bill lost his first re-election campaign for governor.

Maybe because he then won in 1982, 1984, 1986, 1990, and for President in 1992 and 1996.

[°Leprechaun]

This map shows why Arkansas is a critical state (even if there is no Arkansan running). God Forbid that the Dems nominate her!
(do you really want to hear the Republicans whine for eight years about Bill and Hillary??) but here is how she *could* win (270-268):

I don't know if she would win, unless the Republicans nominate someone who is very conservative.

Of all the southern states Arkansas is one of the most winnable. If the Dems abandon the South altogether, then Arkansas may go 'red' along with the rest of the South. Sure abandoning *most* of the South makes sense, but a few states will be in play in 08 morenlikely.
If the Dems really want to be wise they will pick someone who was against the Iraq war from the start. But if they chose someone who voted for the war, Edwards is obviously the best choice (although he could pick a nonwhite and/or a female as his VP, of course).

[Padfoot]

What is the significance of the pink states?  I can't see any qualities that they all share exclusively.  Are you simply predicting close races in those states only should Hillary win the Dem nomination?

[°Leprechaun]

What is the significance of the pink states?  I can't see any qualities that they all share exclusively.  Are you simply predicting close races in those states only should Hillary win the Dem nomination?

I think they will be close, assuming it is a close race, and except for perhaps Arkansas, they will be close no matter who the Dem nominee is,
Arkansas may go Republican unless a southerner or Hillary is at the top of the ticket

[jimrtex]

If she does the things necessary to win in Arkansas, will it hurt her elsewhere?  She hasn't lived in the state in 15 years.  She left the state to move to New York City of all places in order to run for Senator.  And if she tries to reinforce her southern credentials, doesn't it hurt her elsewhere?

[sethm0]

 A Hillary win in Arkansas is not out of the question, especially if the Repiblican candidate is not a southerner.

 If John Kerry can get 45% in the state only a year and a half into the Iraq war, only three years after 9/11 and versus an affable southerner, I think the wife of Bill Clinton will be competetive in Arkansas in 2008 as the country is still bogged down in Iraq.