College-educated population is concentrating in urban areas.
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  College-educated population is concentrating in urban areas.
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Author Topic: College-educated population is concentrating in urban areas.  (Read 3122 times)
Beet
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« on: October 16, 2006, 06:23:18 PM »

http://www.creativeclass.org/rfcgdb/articles/Where_the%20Brains_Are.pdf

Scroll down to page 2 and look at the 2000 map of college graduates per residents. Does it remind you of Dave's 2004 swing maps? Because it sure does to me.
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nclib
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« Reply #1 on: October 16, 2006, 06:36:49 PM »

Interesting. It is easy to understand how college graduates would be repelled by an anti-intellectual like Bush.
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Everett
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« Reply #2 on: October 16, 2006, 06:41:17 PM »

I don't think of intellectuals when I think of conservative hicks, so this isn't too surprising.
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jfern
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« Reply #3 on: October 16, 2006, 07:02:38 PM »

There are two ways to get census data on this, from the following link

http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

Easy way: Go to fact sheet
More complicated way (with more data): Click get data, Summary File 3, quick tables, detailed data, by subject, Social characteristics, Education
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Beet
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« Reply #4 on: October 16, 2006, 07:21:35 PM »

There are two ways to get census data on this, from the following link

http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

Easy way: Go to fact sheet
More complicated way (with more data): Click get data, Summary File 3, quick tables, detailed data, by subject, Social characteristics, Education

Righto. I have seen the census data before, but it didn't remind me of Dave's maps so explicitly. The change from 1970 is amazing as well.

As a note, straight up survey data finds that those with a bachelor's degree are most Republican, while those with no college and those with post-bach's are more Democratic. However, once you control for race and income, there becomes a linear positive relationship between education and voting Democratic.
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2006, 07:25:00 PM »

There are two ways to get census data on this, from the following link

http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

Easy way: Go to fact sheet
More complicated way (with more data): Click get data, Summary File 3, quick tables, detailed data, by subject, Social characteristics, Education

Righto. I have seen the census data before, but it didn't remind me of Dave's maps so explicitly. The change from 1970 is amazing as well.

As a note, straight up survey data finds that those with a bachelor's degree are most Republican, while those with no college and those with post-bach's are more Democratic. However, once you control for race and income, there becomes a linear positive relationship between education and voting Democratic.

No, those 42% of voters with a 4 year degree are slightly more Democratic than average, they had a 49-49 tie for President in 2004.  Thos 16% who went to graduate school supported Kerry 55-44, while those 26% who didn't supported Bush 52-46. I'm sure that those with PhDs were greater than 55% for Kerry.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html
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Beet
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« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2006, 07:27:25 PM »

There are two ways to get census data on this, from the following link

http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

Easy way: Go to fact sheet
More complicated way (with more data): Click get data, Summary File 3, quick tables, detailed data, by subject, Social characteristics, Education

Righto. I have seen the census data before, but it didn't remind me of Dave's maps so explicitly. The change from 1970 is amazing as well.

As a note, straight up survey data finds that those with a bachelor's degree are most Republican, while those with no college and those with post-bach's are more Democratic. However, once you control for race and income, there becomes a linear positive relationship between education and voting Democratic.

No, those 42% of voters with a 4 year degree are slightly more Democratic than average, they had a 49-49 tie for President in 2004.  Thos 16% who went to graduate school supported Kerry 55-44, while those 26% who didn't supported Bush 52-46. I'm sure that those with PhDs were greater than 55% for Kerry.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

Those with a bachelor's degree excluding post-bach's are more Republican than average.
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jfern
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« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2006, 07:29:06 PM »

There are two ways to get census data on this, from the following link

http://factfinder.census.gov/home/saff/main.html?_lang=en

Easy way: Go to fact sheet
More complicated way (with more data): Click get data, Summary File 3, quick tables, detailed data, by subject, Social characteristics, Education

Righto. I have seen the census data before, but it didn't remind me of Dave's maps so explicitly. The change from 1970 is amazing as well.

As a note, straight up survey data finds that those with a bachelor's degree are most Republican, while those with no college and those with post-bach's are more Democratic. However, once you control for race and income, there becomes a linear positive relationship between education and voting Democratic.

No, those 42% of voters with a 4 year degree are slightly more Democratic than average, they had a 49-49 tie for President in 2004.  Thos 16% who went to graduate school supported Kerry 55-44, while those 26% who didn't supported Bush 52-46. I'm sure that those with PhDs were greater than 55% for Kerry.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html

Those with a bachelor's degree excluding post-bach's are more Republican than average.

OK, better. You don't lose your bachelors when you go on to grad school. Some of that 16% might not ever have gotten a graduate degree, anyways.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2006, 07:42:54 PM »

there becomes a linear positive relationship between education and voting Democratic.

That's about as suprising as finding out that there is a direct link between the % of blue collar workers in a given area how likely that area is to vote for the Labour Party Tongue Wink
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #9 on: October 16, 2006, 07:45:47 PM »

there becomes a linear positive relationship between education and voting Democratic.

That's about as suprising as finding out that there is a direct link between the % of blue collar workers in a given area how likely that area is to vote for the Labour Party Tongue Wink
What sort of link, if any, is there between education and voting patterns in britain, Al?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #10 on: October 16, 2006, 07:57:56 PM »

there becomes a linear positive relationship between education and voting Democratic.

That's about as suprising as finding out that there is a direct link between the % of blue collar workers in a given area how likely that area is to vote for the Labour Party Tongue Wink
What sort of link, if any, is there between education and voting patterns in britain, Al?

In general, the less education in a particular area, the more likely that area is to vote Labour (although the link is not as strong as with occupations).
Things tend to get complicated in areas with very high levels of education though; when you get over a certain point (if memory serves, and it might not, that point is about 30% with a degree) it doesn't seem to have much of an effect, overall, at all (although it certainly has an effect on the sort of politicians elected in those areas).
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Beet
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« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2006, 08:16:18 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2006, 08:24:58 PM by thefactor »

there becomes a linear positive relationship between education and voting Democratic.

That's about as suprising as finding out that there is a direct link between the % of blue collar workers in a given area how likely that area is to vote for the Labour Party Tongue Wink

Here are some actual numbers from a quick and dirty regression based off of the University of Michigan's National Election Studies. The depent variable I used was a number ranging from -2 (strong Kerry supporter) to +2 (strong Bush supporter). N=985 observations. The actual coefficients are meaningless in comparison (in the model without taking party into account, the effect of going from a grade 8 education to grad degree is about 62% of the effect of being black; in the model with party, it is about twice the effect) so just looking at t-values:

Without party id:
education (-3.35)**
household income (4.01)**
black dummy variable (-9.13)**
R^2=.103

With party id:
partyid (36.84)**
education (-3.06)**
household income (1.68)
black dummy variable (-2.60)**
R^2=.624

The interesting thing is how more educated Republicans and Democrats alike were more likely to be for Kerry, regardless of party identification.
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nclib
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« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2006, 08:24:59 PM »
« Edited: October 16, 2006, 08:27:22 PM by nclib »

I don't think of intellectuals when I think of conservative hicks, so this isn't too surprising.

The other interesting thing is that rural areas that do have a high percentage of college graduates (e.g. Vermont) still vote Democratic.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2006, 08:30:27 PM »

I don't think of intellectuals when I think of conservative hicks, so this isn't too surprising.

The other interesting thing is that rural areas that do have a high percentage of college graduates (e.g. Vermont) still vote Democratic.

Hmm...the Vermont factor makes me wonder about how it used to be say 20-30 years ago (when Vermont was a very Republican state)
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jimrtex
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« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2006, 10:37:20 PM »

http://www.creativeclass.org/rfcgdb/articles/Where_the%20Brains_Are.pdf

Scroll down to page 2 and look at the 2000 map of college graduates per residents. Does it remind you of Dave's 2004 swing maps? Because it sure does to me.
It is an odd way of coloring the map.  In the 1970 map, the dark yellow represents 10 to 18/100 (or the national average + or - 36%).  In in the 2000 map, it represents 20 to 28, or the national average + or - 17%).

In 1970, the palest color represented areas with less than 1% of the population graduated (9% of the national average).  In 2000, it represents areas with less than 14% graduates (58% of the national average).  In 1970 if you were at 64% of the national average, you were dark yellow.  In 2000 if you were at 58% you would be two shades lighter.
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