Hillary leads McCain and Giuliani - CNN Poll

[Conan]

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/10/20/poll.08/index.html

"   Asked if they preferred Hillary Rodham Clinton to McCain, respondents gave the Democratic New York senator and former first lady a 51 percent to 44 percent advantage over the Republican Senator from Arizona.  "

"   Remove "Rodham" and McCain had a 1 percentage point advantage, 48 percent to 47 percent.    "

"   Asked if they prefer Hillary Clinton or Giuliani, Clinton has a 4 percentage point advantage, 50 percent to 46 percent.    "

"      Add "Rodham" to the equation and the former first lady's advantage over the Republican former mayor drops to 1 percentage point, 48 percent to 47 percent.      "

                       

[Conan]

I find that poll hard to believe. Then again, it probably was mostly taken in New York.

I found it hard to believe that George Bush even had a chance in 2004. It wasnt mostly taken in NY.

[Conan]

I doubt the legitimacy of this poll.

Too bad

[Conan]

The only thing, is that McCain isn't leading in the polls for the nomination, Guiliani is and he is defeating her.

Not according to this.

[Conan]

Hilarious for you maybe. Not for Hillary though.

I hate McCain but people actively interested in politics tend to assume everyone else will eventually come around to their way of thinking, i.e. Lamont in CT. But usually it doesn't work that way. McCain probably can't win the GOP primary but he would be a formidable general election candidate, certainly way above average.

I'm sure the Republican base wants a cross dressing, pro-partial birth abortion, pro gun control, gay friendly, adulterist on his 3rd marriage New Yawker. 

Maybe Republicans are more pragmatic. One polling firm intentionally push-polled Guiliani and he still did very well among GOP voters (i.e. they basically said how liberal he was before asking the topline question). It's not really a secret that Guiliani is liberal.

That said, it would be pretty bizarre if Guiliani ran on an identical platform in a GOP primary as he did in a NYC Mayoral race. He definitely has some 'outs' to mitigate his prior record (i.e. federalism).

Most republicans dont know the real Giuliani. They know hes a republican and walked on NYC streets on 9/11. That's pretty much it.

[Conan]

This poll is the newest and the others dont play with Rodham.

[Conan]

But this is the same marist college poll that has her up substantially in the NY senate race. I will not strickly go by this poll until others substantiate this poll.

This isn't a marist poll.

[Conan]

She isn't leading by that much in QU  polls or the Siena polls. I am saying that I would like to see other polls substantiate this poll, because all the polls like Rasmussen, and Marist got her behind, and CNN has been known to be more supportive of the Clintons.

The last Quin poll had her 65%! She is around the mid 60s in almost every poll and Schumer won 71% in 04.

[Conan]

But Siena poll has her down to 59%. And Rasmussen as well. Anyway, I am not arguing if she is ahead or not ahead, I am arguing that she isn't unbeatable and Tester and McCaskill said the same thing.

Hillary is unbeatable in her Senate race now. However the presidency is a different case, but she certainly has a good chance.