New Gallup and ABC News Polls

[The Vorlon]

ABCNews releases their latest National poll this afternoon, while Gallup comes out either today or tomorrow.

Both will have been done entirely in the week after the Reagan Funeral week so the "Reagan Effect" should be a bit more muted.

For what it is worth, what do we all predict

[The Vorlon]

Yeah.  Makes zero sense.

ABC News: June 17th - 20th (Registered Voters)
Sample size = 1200

Kerry 48
Bush 44
Nader 6

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/trend_062104.html

TIPP - Registered Voters (June 14th-19th)
Sample Size = 1000

Bush 44
Kerry 41
Nader 6

(Link to follow)

Harris Says Bush +10 (unlikely)
Pew says Bush +4
IBD says Bush +3
Rasmussen says Kerry +3
ABC says Kerry +4/+8

Ok.. that's clear... I understand now...

[The Vorlon]

ABC poll:

Among registered voters in this poll, 38 percent describe themselves as Democrats, 30 percent as Republicans and 28 percent as independents[/b]

[The Vorlon]

I take it ABC does not weight by party ID?

No, unless any party polls 40% by party Id, they set a max.

[The Vorlon]

ABC is +8 Dems, but from the 2000 exit polls whichthe Dem adv was +5,

Actually +4

39/35/27 Dem/Rep/Ind (=101% due to rounding) in 2000 exit polls

But your point remains valid.

Theory #1 = unlikely, required ALL undecided/soft/lean to go Kerry.

2 to 1 for Kerry I'll buy, 100 to Zip I don't  

[The Vorlon]

A good validity check on the National polls is also the next round of state polls.

While there are certainly state to state minor ebbs and flows, in general the state polls move with national ones.

I Kerry has gained 6% nationally, the Michigan should roughly speakingmove from +4 Kerry to +10 Kerry for example.

Now the change might not be exactly 6%, but it will very likely be between say 4% and 8%.

Waiting For Gallup