2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[bullmoose88]

Pennsylvania...I think will stay democratic.

Pennsylvania is basically a 3 region state.

The Southeast which consists of Philly and its burbs has been trending democratic and probably will continue to do so for the forseeable future. Southeastern PA is more like the Northeast as a whole...even the Republicans which usually have 49/51% of suburban registration (democrats still don't break the 40% mark there yet) are pretty liberal-the democrats in the city or the burbs go without saying. These republicans or the regionites as a whole probably will go for someone like Dean or Clark in the plus 60% range. Sad to say, but its true, and its the fastest growing part of the state.

The central PA...carville called it Alabama...very republican, very conservative...Bush should carry the T of pennsylvania easily...just a matter if its in the high 50%s or low 60%s.

But Bush's waffling on tariffs (which in my view should never have been implemented in the first place, but I'm from the SE anyway) will likely cost him the West of the state, where the GOP had been making large inroads...and making up the loses it had incurred back east. Now that Bush has removed the tariffs, he's likely to alienate voters in that area...probably costing him the state--then again, the state had been trending democratic since nov 2002 anyway with a democratic governor whose sure to use his weight to tip the state to the Ds anyway.

The bigger problem is not Pennsylvania, Bush doesn't have to win PA...its West Virginia, a state thats probably going to be hit the hardest by no more tariffs and has a strong democratic registration edge. Coupled with Ohio (Republicans haven't won the white house without it). Bush could be in serious trouble in the former steel belt.

[bullmoose88]

I wouldn't be so confident.

Granted, West Virginia is a very very very (you get the point) socially conservative state. Its also very evangelical. Democrats still vastly outnumber Republicans and lets face it, West Virginians vote for democrats even when they're socially moderate or even liberal (Dukakis, Clinton [Twice]). If Dean moves to the center come election season, as we know he has to (you can only try the Barry Goldwater strategy once or twice before people place electablilty ahead of principles)

Same thing goes for Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana...granted they're far more Republican by nature...its not like a moderate or even Liberal democrat can't carry these states...I doubt conservatives thought Clinton a socially conservative candidate, but yet all 3 states went for Clinton in 92 and 96.

Now am I saying that Tennessee or Arkansas will land in Dean's column come November...its not likely, the GOP has a pretty good machine in those two states and with the exception of TN Gov (where the last R was pretty unpopular) the GOP has the momentum.  Louisiana (a catholic state) where the democrats have a pretty well oiled machine could go the way of Dean or Clark providing they present a reasonably mainstream image...but that remains to be seen.

[bullmoose88]

I always thought it looked more like an "I" (with large top and a large bottom)[although the bottom runs into Pittsburgh and suburban Philly and some of those counties can go democratic so its more accurate to call it a T-the entire stateline with New York goes Republican, Erie county on occasion as well)

PA politics is confusing at times. In national elections for president, the SE has voted for the more liberal (socially) candidate as long as he doesn't talk about borrowing and spending (fiscally moderate or even conservative) the West is the opposite. So in congressional elections (especially now that the GOP has drawn the districts to favor them) the East votes for Moderate, fiscally conservative republicans [free traders] or similarly positioned democrats [you don't get a liberal democrat outside the city for congressional races] while out west the republicans and democrats tend to be protectionist, socially conservative candidates.

Thats why the SE where the counties around philly are very republican, yet vote for Clinton and Gore into the 60% range while the west is predominantly democratic around Pittsburgh and Erie yet has been voting Republican as of late. So I doubt congressional candidates will be hurt since they likely share the views of their consituents. Bush however, (who was supposed to be a free trade guy) might get hurt out west.


Just a hunch though...11 months is still pretty early to predict.

[bullmoose88]

Bush only has 55% in Ohio?

one year before his re-election?

When they talk about incumbents (usually senators) polling only in the low to mid 50s 11 or 12 months before an election in a state, it usually means those incumbents are vulnerable.

Bush is likely safe in Ohio, for now, but given he won it in 2000 and supposedly has high approval ratings, for him to only get 55% right now (as elections draw to a close, undecideds usually favor the challenger) is kinda low.

In PA Bush only breaks 50% in a few polls. Granted he has an 8-11point edge over Dean, but when you can't or barely break 50% 11 months before, you are more vulnerable than you think.