2004 User Predictions - Discussion (user search)
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  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 866244 times)
Carey
Rookie
**
Posts: 105


Political Matrix
E: -3.38, S: -5.74

« on: January 03, 2004, 10:02:05 AM »

ok, this Australian (who, even though he leans left, will be neutral here, due to it not being my decidion) has compiled a realistic "best case scenario" for Reps and "best case scenario" for Dems. A landslide is possiblke for both sides if they play their cards right, but their will be no McGovernish losses for either side, due to the polarisation of America at the mo.

For the Democratic Best Case Scenario: Carey
For the Republican Best Case Scenario: Carey2

I apologise if I made a mistake with the shades of certain states, I was kinda rushing.
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Carey
Rookie
**
Posts: 105


Political Matrix
E: -3.38, S: -5.74

« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2004, 10:40:35 AM »

ok, this Australian (who, even though he leans left, will be neutral here, due to it not being my decidion) has compiled a realistic "best case scenario" for Reps and "best case scenario" for Dems. A landslide is possiblke for both sides if they play their cards right, but their will be no McGovernish losses for either side, due to the polarisation of America at the mo.

For the Democratic Best Case Scenario: Carey
For the Republican Best Case Scenario: Carey2

I apologise if I made a mistake with the shades of certain states, I was kinda rushing.

Seems reasonable to me. You have a lot of tossups in both cases, and you let all of them go to the winning party, but otherwise they seemed accurate to me. Why don't you make one which is not best-worse, but the one you think will occur? Wink

well to answer the tossup point, in a best case scenario, all of the tossups would go to the winner.

Secondly, the realistic one I will do as soon as a nominee is clear (and no, Howard Dean has not won it, and I would not be surprised if he doesn't get the nom)

plus I am afraid of being wrong Wink lol
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Carey
Rookie
**
Posts: 105


Political Matrix
E: -3.38, S: -5.74

« Reply #2 on: January 06, 2004, 09:07:22 AM »


Bill O'Reilly's prediction was 8 states for Dean.

Presuming at this point that Dean is the nominee then Dean will only win 5 or 6 states. NY will certainly go for Dean and CA wouldn't be a surprise either but they did vote in Schwarzenegger but that is probably not enough to change the voting pattern. Dean will probably carry Vermont, Newhampshire and a couple of others that won't mean much. My overall prediction is that if Dean is the nominee this will be a very boring presidential election.

Bill O'Reilly is a windbag, I'd take everything he and everybody else on that network says with a grain of salt.
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