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NHPolitico
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« on: January 09, 2004, 03:16:17 pm »

Bush leads Dean and Clark by 9 in IL poll

January 9, 2004
By SARAH ANTONACCI of Copley News Service


SPRINGFIELD - With 10 months left before the presidential election, a Copley News Service poll finds that fewer than half of the respondents would vote to re-elect President George W. Bush, and his Democratic challengers have some work to do to get their names out to the voters.

Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., conducted the poll Monday through Wednesday, asking 625 registered Illinois voters across the state a variety of questions about the presidential election. Those questions involved candidate name recognition, favorable ratings and who voters would select if the election were held today.

The sample has a margin of error of 4 percent.

"There's no election right on top of this, so I wasn't terribly surprised by the results," said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research. "These numbers more than likely will change over time. It's changing on a daily basis.

"Bush is well known to all the voters in the state, and some of the Democratic candidates are not as well known. At least three of them are recognized by 90 percent of the voters. (John) Kerry and (Wesley) Clark are still blank slates to sizeable portions of the electorate."

The poll asked voters whether they recognized the names of Bush and of the five Democratic challengers generally considered the front-runners. The three Democrats voters generally recognized were U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri, U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut (the 2000 vice presidential candidate) and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean.

Jason Gerwig, a spokesman for Bush, said Thursday he considers the numbers promising for the president. The poll found that 42 percent of those surveyed view Bush favorably, 37 percent unfavorably and 21 percent were neutral.

"Looking at these numbers - and ones especially for the Democrats - for a state that people have written off as Democratic, these numbers show anything but," Gerwig said.

Dean spokesman Kevin Conlon said he looks at the name-recognition poll a little differently. Dean had a 20 percent favorable rating, 31 percent unfavorable and 40 percent neutral; 9 percent of respondents didn't recognize Dean's name.

"His unfavorables are less than Bush. That's comparable to other recent polls," Conlon said.

Illinois' primary isn't until March 16. As a result, many of the candidates haven't begun campaigning here. Instead, they are concentrating on states with earlier primaries.

That's why Conlon thinks the poll results are good for Dean.

"It's not the same as in Iowa, where he's been 100 times. We're very confident that when the voters of Illinois get to know him more and more, he will do even better," Conlon said. "We feel good about those results, and we feel confident that we put together a wonderful slate of candidates and we have every reason to think we can prevail."

Dean is generally considered the Democrat to beat in the early primaries.

Coker said Illinois has a history of leaning toward Democratic candidates, but it will be interesting to watch Dean when he begins to campaign here. Dean has been targeting Democratic activists in primary states, Coker said.

"He's taken a calculated gamble to go left to win the nomination and then work his way toward the middle by fall," Coker said. "Dean's unfavorable rating (in the Copley poll) is almost as high as Bush's. That's something to ponder should he become a nominee."

The poll also asked voters who they would vote for when each of the five leading Democrats were matched head-to-head with Bush.

Bush beat them all, but never with a majority of the entire survey. His margins ranged from 9 percent (over Dean and Clark) to as low as 4 percent (over Lieberman and Gephardt).

"I'm not surprised, with the state's political leanings, that his leads are only small," Coker said.

Adam Kovacevich, a spokesman for Lieberman, said the poll numbers show Democrats, especially his candidate, are running strong in Illinois.

"These results show that Joe Lieberman is in the best position possible to beat Bush in the general election," he said.

The poll did not consider four other Democratic candidates who are running behind in polls: U.S. Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, Al Sharpton, former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois and U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio.

Bill Buck, a spokesman for Clark, said he views the head-to-head numbers as strong for his candidate because he's someone "whose only been running for president since September against a sitting president in a state he's never campaigned in."

Poll respondents also were asked if they thought Bush is doing a good job as president. On that question, 49 percent ranked his performance "good" or "excellent," 27 percent said "fair," 23 percent said "poor" and 1 percent were undecided.

Gerwig said those numbers are encouraging for the president.

"If you take the people who thought he was doing a fair job, that adds up to 76 percent," he said. "These are great numbers."

Pollsters also asked voters if they approve of Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq. Fifty percent said they do, 41 percent do not and 9 percent were undecided. In a similar question on the economy, 44 percent expressed approval, 46 percent disapproval and 10 percent were undecided.

"It is early, and this is by no means a snapshot of what we'll see in November," Gerwig said. "The fact that the numbers are so good for the president so early on, when no one is really thinking about the race, is encouraging."

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NHPolitico
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« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2004, 08:11:13 pm »

I don't believe Edwards could carry NC, let alone any of the rest of the South.


Research 2000 poll of North Carolinians, 1/04:

Approve of presidential bid by Edwards: 55 % (vs. 39% last year)-- due to increase in number of Democrats in NC who support his bid.

Bush vs. Edwards: 53-40
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #2 on: January 10, 2004, 08:17:19 pm »

agcat,

agcat, read Al Franken's book. That's an eye-popper.

This is kind of like 1972. No liberals knew of anyone who was supporting Nixon and were shocked election night.

I support Franken. The more books he sells, the further isolated Dems become from the mainstream voter.  It happened to conservatives in 1996.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2004, 10:46:25 pm »

I'll graph my predictions when I get a chance, but here are my detailed predictions. This assumes no earth-shattering events between now and Nov. '04 and the Dems nominating either Dean or Gephardt and a competitive race.

Solid Dem: VT, NY, CT, RI, MA, MD, DC, DE, NJ, CA, WA, HI, IL

Solid GOP: ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, ID, MT, WY, UT, AK, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, KY, LA, IN

Lean Dem:

Maine
New Mexico (Gore won barely in '00 and a Hispanic Dem was solidly elected Governor--should be able to turn out Hispanics on election day)
Pennsylvania (more competitive if Dean is the nominee)
Michigan (ditto for MI)

Lean GOP:

Colorado
Tennessee
Florida (it'll be very close, but I must sadly say it leans GOP due to increased GOP registration and a solid win for Jeb Bush in 2002)
Nevada (a bit more competitive due to Yucca Mountain and an increasing Hispanic population)
Arizona (though more Democratic than in '00)

Tossup:

NH: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
MO: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
IA: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
WV: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
AR: Lean GOP, though highly competitive if Clark gets VP
OH: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
MN: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
WI: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
OR: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep

I figured Dean would overperform in states Nader did well in in 2000 (MN, WI, OR) and Gephardt would do well in his home state and in states with a high union population (MI, OH, PA, WV).

Dean isn't even all that popular among Dems in NH.  He's not running away with the primary and the state has shown no support for candidates that want to raise taxes as Dean has vowed to do by repealing Bush's tax cuts to pay for new social spending.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2004, 10:49:11 pm »

Tennessee is going to be close(again) and is certainly going to be worth a watch.
I'm curious as wether or the interesting voting patterns displayed in the state in the 2002 gubernatorial election will be repeated.

That a conservative Democrat can win statewide in TN? Sure. Too bad there aren't any on the presidential ballot this November.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2004, 04:39:39 pm »

Actually Goldwater won Louisiana in 1964.
Also, I don't think that Clark would lose Arkansas if he were nominated.

Pryor ran almost as an ideological soulmate of Bush-- like Landrieu did.  Reps. Berry and Ross and Sen. Lincoln supported the war resolution. My guess is that Pryor would have voted in favor.   Clark can be painted as a liberal and that's bad news in any state in the South.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2004, 04:43:02 pm »
« Edited: January 11, 2004, 04:45:08 pm by NHPolitico »

I just added my map today.  It's nothing special, just the 2000 results with NH, WV, and NV switiching to the Ds.  I assumed Dean would be the nominee, but I'm personally pulling for Gephardt.

What is it with people thinking New Hampshire loves Howard Dean? Most voters here had no idea who he was.  If we follow the political goings-on of another state, it's Massachusetts.  Dean barely won re-election in 2000 in Vermont.  He couldn't be elected governor of New Hampshire, and yet, somehow he can win the state's electoral votes?
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2004, 04:44:32 pm »

Kerry will Lose in NH & Gepthart will lose in Iowa
Dean will win & Be the Nommie & Lose to Bush
49 to 41

Right except 56-41 for Bush.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2004, 04:47:23 pm »

I've heard the poll in SC that had Sharpton in 2nd place, though, had a very high percentage of blacks polled. I didn't hear how high but I know I've heard experts say that they feel that black turnout was overestimated in that poll, and that others had Sharpton significantly lower.

Blacks make up half of the Democrat primary voting population in SC.   This poll would have to have a ridiculous number of black voters in the sample for the results to overrepresent the black vote.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2004, 04:49:34 pm »

Kerry will Lose in NH & Gepthart will lose in Iowa
Dean will win & Be the Nommie & Lose to Bush
49 to 41
Shut up! You always say Dean will win. And you give nothing to back it up. If you're going to say Dean will win, thats fine. But I notice you spread this in all the threads, as if Dean is already nominated. Explain yourself, and I won't be so mean.

Dean has the support of major unions and the ultra left.  The will help him win the nom.

The story of Dean's union support has been the most underreported story of this whole Democrat campaign season.  He's done incredibly well stealing union support from Gephardt.  Everyone talks about the beer drinkers versus the wine drinkers (Gephardt's supporters versus Dean's), but Dean has plenty of Gephardt's beer drinkers in his fold, too.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2004, 04:50:49 pm »

Dean will win the nomination and go down in November something like 54 - 46.  Pretty substantial win considering we are a 50 - 50 nation.


I think the GOP won 53% of all votes cast in the 2002 midterms.  That's pretty close to 54% and not at all shocking or unexpected.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2004, 04:52:28 pm »

I'd say I've seen analysists predict the black turnout in SC could be as high as 49%


I've heard the poll in SC that had Sharpton in 2nd place, though, had a very high percentage of blacks polled. I didn't hear how high but I know I've heard experts say that they feel that black turnout was overestimated in that poll, and that others had Sharpton significantly lower.

Yep, that's a very good approximation.  It could even be higher if Bush is as strong among white male voters as it has been thought. They won't show up to participate and the raw number of blacks voting won't change, but their power goes up.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2004, 04:55:01 pm »

Greetings from the Empire State:

Well, things are heating up in this presidential campaign, and Gore endorsing Dean puts him in a very good position.  But its still early and anything could happen.   Some of my political friends think that with this endorsement, Dean may clinch the nomination, however I think they maybe jumping the gun a little.  

Personally, I am excited about the possibility of a Dean - Clark ticket, or vice versa.  If these two are on the same ticket then the Dems have the best shot at winning the White House.  The Dems still need to realize that they need Southern Electoral Votes in order to win the election.    

See you all later.

Dean-Clark would be odder than an Oscar Madison-Felix Unger ticket.  
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2004, 04:56:24 pm »

Dean is reported to be obsessed with the South

It's hard to say which is a better strategy for Dem House and Senate candidates in the South this year-- having Dean try to improve his image there or staying the hell out of the region entirely.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #14 on: January 11, 2004, 04:58:06 pm »

Bring on DEAn, esp after today!  

That is if the Dems don't dump him now too.

They  won't dump him they love him.

Time is starting to go way too slowly for my tastes. I see a Dean victory in my grasp and it's agonizing to watch him stumble to the finish line.  
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #15 on: January 11, 2004, 05:01:30 pm »

...or because GOP posters have been posting big GOP wins while Dem posters have been posting big Dem wins with their being a few more GOP posters than Dems posters...

Yeah, a whole lot of stupid predictions is just a whole lot of stupid predictions. A lot of people predicted the bubble wouldn't burst in Jan-Mar 2000, but they were all wrong.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #16 on: January 11, 2004, 05:04:02 pm »

I still think that Dean will not get the turnout from the middle Gore gotten.

PA Polls out this week have Bush over 50% vs everyone and 49% vs Dean.  

So yes Bush can still Carry PA , it was very close in 2000 and without PA, Dems are done.


Ok, I'll take a stab at objectivity.  The Dem nominee will have a much tougher time keeping the states Al Gore won by 1/2 of one percent - Wisconsin, Oregon, New Mexico, and Iowa -  than George Bush will have protecting his closest states of Florida and New Hampshire.  Bush will run much tougher in California and New york than he did in 2000.  He won't win those two states but will force Dems to spend resources there they didn't have to spend in 2000.  

If Dean is the nominee, Bush carries Minn, Pa, as well.
Bush carry Pennsylvania? After lifting the foreign steel tariffs? That would be quite an accomplishment.

Many Democrats don't realize what a great candidate that Gore was.  They think he was a total loser and that any of the guys running can easily improve on Gore's performance.  That's hogwash. Gore did a great job of holding together all the interest groups that make up the Democrat Party.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #17 on: January 11, 2004, 05:04:50 pm »

Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?

Can't get a ride to The Improv?
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #18 on: January 11, 2004, 05:06:58 pm »

Honestly I've been wondering why Europeans care so much about our electiuons.  seems like we have more european democrats than american ones.

Not a big deal, but we just don't see the reverse, Americans could care less about European elections for the most part.


Sadly, I don't think they are jokes. Why would anyone join a forum like this with the sole purpose of making jokes?

They care because they know their world and the real world revolves around us.  We don't have to follow what goes on in Canada or the EU or anywhere else particularly.  We'd know about who their rulers were if it mattered.
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« Reply #19 on: January 11, 2004, 05:09:37 pm »

Humm I have some British friends too and they want Bush to win to keep the strong relationship with Blair.

REELECT PRESIDENT BUSH!

For the sake of the world, vote Bush-Cheney?

Let's print up the bumper stickers!
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #20 on: January 11, 2004, 05:12:49 pm »

No, the French wouldn't elect an American come hell or high water, no matter how liberal!! He'd probably be right at home in the 'wet' wing (i.e liberal wing), of the Tory party. Even Dean isn't left enough for the Lib Dems or Labour, but I could easily see him being elected in Chipping Barnet :-)

Most people in Sweden think, quite rightly, that the Democrats pretty much correponds with the Swedish right, whereas the Republicans are off the edge! It can be seen, for example, that the Swedish left, left of centre, centre, right of centre and right hate Bush. The "conservative", or rather libertarian, right is split on whether to hate him or not.

I know what you mean. Jean-Marie le Pen is as anti-OIF as Chirac.
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« Reply #21 on: January 11, 2004, 05:28:48 pm »
« Edited: January 11, 2004, 05:29:20 pm by NHPolitico »

I wouldn't be so confident.

Granted, West Virginia is a very very very (you get the point) socially conservative state. Its also very evangelical. Democrats still vastly outnumber Republicans and lets face it, West Virginians vote for democrats even when they're socially moderate or even liberal (Dukakis, Clinton [Twice]). If Dean moves to the center come election season, as we know he has to (you can only try the Barry Goldwater strategy once or twice before people place electablilty ahead of principles)

Same thing goes for Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana...granted they're far more Republican by nature...its not like a moderate or even Liberal democrat can't carry these states...I doubt conservatives thought Clinton a socially conservative candidate, but yet all 3 states went for Clinton in 92 and 96.

Now am I saying that Tennessee or Arkansas will land in Dean's column come November...its not likely, the GOP has a pretty good machine in those two states and with the exception of TN Gov (where the last R was pretty unpopular) the GOP has the momentum.  Louisiana (a catholic state) where the democrats have a pretty well oiled machine could go the way of Dean or Clark providing they present a reasonably mainstream image...but that remains to be seen.

The Democrats won over 60% of the vote in WV in the last congressional election.
Every single elected state-wide official in WV has a little D next to his/her name.

The Republicans have a machine in Arkansas outside the Ozarks?
Huckabee is the only popular Republican in the state... and his popularity is waning.
TN is going to close(as always. Amazing what a bit of good ol' fashioned sectional voting can do...)

You are totally right about the AR-GOP. They are $323,000 in debt because the finance director took money from the party's accounts and generally did a poor job of informing the party how much money was available to spend on projects. The leadership of the AR-GOP has almost entirely been booted out.  Several Republicans have served briefly to fill in and Win has accepted the position of Chairman, but that's just a fill-in measure and no one expects him to run for re-election to the chairmanship the next time it's up for a vote. The state party is bankrupt and it's totally representitive of how the party is basicly Mike Huckabee and a guy with a great last name (Win Rockefeller) and that is it-- that's all there is. Mike has done what he can to bail out the party, but a bucket doesn't do much good on the Titanic. The RNC has offered to help pay staffers to keep the party operating.

As far as Bush's re-election, he'll have his own people working the state, so don't worry about his fortunes in the Natural State.  It's just too bad that statewide elections were in 2002 and not this year. They could have piggy-backed off Bush's machine.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #22 on: January 11, 2004, 05:39:41 pm »

I wouldn't be so confident.

Granted, West Virginia is a very very very (you get the point) socially conservative state. Its also very evangelical. Democrats still vastly outnumber Republicans and lets face it, West Virginians vote for democrats even when they're socially moderate or even liberal (Dukakis, Clinton [Twice]). If Dean moves to the center come election season, as we know he has to (you can only try the Barry Goldwater strategy once or twice before people place electablilty ahead of principles)

Same thing goes for Arkansas, Tennessee, and Louisiana...granted they're far more Republican by nature...its not like a moderate or even Liberal democrat can't carry these states...I doubt conservatives thought Clinton a socially conservative candidate, but yet all 3 states went for Clinton in 92 and 96.

Now am I saying that Tennessee or Arkansas will land in Dean's column come November...its not likely, the GOP has a pretty good machine in those two states and with the exception of TN Gov (where the last R was pretty unpopular) the GOP has the momentum.  Louisiana (a catholic state) where the democrats have a pretty well oiled machine could go the way of Dean or Clark providing they present a reasonably mainstream image...but that remains to be seen.

The Democrats won over 60% of the vote in WV in the last congressional election.
Every single elected state-wide official in WV has a little D next to his/her name.

The Republicans have a machine in Arkansas outside the Ozarks?
Huckabee is the only popular Republican in the state... and his popularity is waning.
TN is going to close(as always. Amazing what a bit of good ol' fashioned sectional voting can do...)

Only one seat of the WV three is even contested by the GOP and Capito went from 51.4% of the 2-party vote in 2000 to 60.0% of the 2-party vote. The WV-GOP will happily take that trend.
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NHPolitico
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« Reply #23 on: January 11, 2004, 05:41:31 pm »

Bush remains popular in Arkansas.  Last time I looked, Huckabee wasn't going to be on the presidential ballot.  Bush is on the ballot - and thank the lord his opponent is going to be Dean.  Write it down, Bush will carry Arkansas by at least 15 points.

Even if Huckabee were on the ballot, it wouldn't be that big of a deal. Mike has carved his niche in Arkansas politics.  He'll end up having served as governor for 10 years. You don't get that on your resume by being unpopular.
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« Reply #24 on: January 11, 2004, 05:42:48 pm »

Very unlikely that Bush would carry a Democrat leaning state by 15%
Stop being partizan please...

BTW Dean has not won a single vote yet.


It's not a Democrat-leaning state. It's a state where Democrats run as conservatives and where the state GOP has never figured out how to get its act together.
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