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February 16, 2020, 02:03:43 pm
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  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 824666 times)
japple
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« on: January 14, 2004, 12:30:34 am »
« edited: January 14, 2004, 01:02:23 am by japple »

This early in the process, I can only look at past results. States that voted Republican 4 out of the past 5 elections are worth 207 electoral votes. I'm calling this Bush's base. States he carried in 2000 are currently worth 278 - a razor thin victory. Add states that he lost by less than 5% brings him to 338. That's what I think he'll need to be considered a solid victory. States he lost in '00 where I think he's got the best shot are MN, IA, PA and NM.

My home state of MN hasn't voted Republican in a long time, but in every case there was a Minnesotan on the ballot or there was a strong Democratic
candidate. It was VERY close in '84 and '00. A solid effort by Bush - and his volunteers - in '04 will give him the state. Republicans regularily win state-wide elections here, but it's usually close - Senate and Governor in 2002.

With no Senate or Governor race, and no competative House races this year, Minnesota is going to be all about turn-out.
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