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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 818334 times)
nclib
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« on: November 29, 2003, 08:33:27 pm »

I'll graph my predictions when I get a chance, but here are my detailed predictions. This assumes no earth-shattering events between now and Nov. '04 and the Dems nominating either Dean or Gephardt and a competitive race.

Solid Dem: VT, NY, CT, RI, MA, MD, DC, DE, NJ, CA, WA, HI, IL

Solid GOP: ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, ID, MT, WY, UT, AK, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, KY, LA, IN

Lean Dem:

Maine
New Mexico (Gore won barely in '00 and a Hispanic Dem was solidly elected Governor--should be able to turn out Hispanics on election day)
Pennsylvania (more competitive if Dean is the nominee)
Michigan (ditto for MI)

Lean GOP:

Colorado
Tennessee
Florida (it'll be very close, but I must sadly say it leans GOP due to increased GOP registration and a solid win for Jeb Bush in 2002)
Nevada (a bit more competitive due to Yucca Mountain and an increasing Hispanic population)
Arizona (though more Democratic than in '00)

Tossup:

NH: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
MO: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
IA: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
WV: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
AR: Lean GOP, though highly competitive if Clark gets VP
OH: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
MN: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
WI: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
OR: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep

I figured Dean would overperform in states Nader did well in in 2000 (MN, WI, OR) and Gephardt would do well in his home state and in states with a high union population (MI, OH, PA, WV).
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nclib
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Posts: 9,897
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« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2003, 07:55:00 pm »

Nice analysis. A question. Why is Washington state in solid Democrat??

I'll graph my predictions when I get a chance, but here are my detailed predictions. This assumes no earth-shattering events between now and Nov. '04 and the Dems nominating either Dean or Gephardt and a competitive race.

Solid Dem: VT, NY, CT, RI, MA, MD, DC, DE, NJ, CA, WA, HI, IL

Solid GOP: ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, ID, MT, WY, UT, AK, MS, AL, GA, SC, NC, VA, KY, LA, IN

Lean Dem:

Maine
New Mexico (Gore won barely in '00 and a Hispanic Dem was solidly elected Governor--should be able to turn out Hispanics on election day)
Pennsylvania (more competitive if Dean is the nominee)
Michigan (ditto for MI)

Lean GOP:

Colorado
Tennessee
Florida (it'll be very close, but I must sadly say it leans GOP due to increased GOP registration and a solid win for Jeb Bush in 2002)
Nevada (a bit more competitive due to Yucca Mountain and an increasing Hispanic population)
Arizona (though more Democratic than in '00)

Tossup:

NH: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
MO: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
IA: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
WV: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
AR: Lean GOP, though highly competitive if Clark gets VP
OH: Lean GOP for Dean; Lean Dem for Gep
MN: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
WI: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep
OR: Lean Dem for Dean; Lean GOP for Gep

I figured Dean would overperform in states Nader did well in in 2000 (MN, WI, OR) and Gephardt would do well in his home state and in states with a high union population (MI, OH, PA, WV).

Regarding Washington state:

I was on the fence between putting it in Solid or Lean Dem. I decided to put it in Solid Dem because of an increasing minority population and the fact that after '94 Dems have won both 2/2 pres. races, 2/2 gov. races, 2/2 senate races, and have picked up 4 House seats. But again, it could go either way.
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nclib
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Posts: 9,897
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« Reply #2 on: January 13, 2004, 03:31:16 pm »

Bush couldn't win New York...he would only beat sharpton here by 8-10% and might lose to Kucinich, so dean would win it by over 15% easily.

We shall see.
Bush lost NY 60-35% in 2000.  A 25% swing to bush is unrealistic.
True, Bush lost badly to Gore in NY, but take a look at the last two times the Democrats nominated a liberal:

            National                    New York
1988    GOP by 8%               Dems by 4%
1984    GOP by 18%             GOP by 8%

So the GOP would need a 10-12% margin over a Dean nationwide to run a dead heat in NY.

In 1984 and 1988 social issues were of less importance than they are now. When economic issues are the focus, NY leans Dem but is competitive. With the focus on social issues, NY is strongly Dem. Dean would only lose NY in a McGovern/Mondale landslide.
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nclib
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Posts: 9,897
United States


« Reply #3 on: January 30, 2004, 01:41:12 pm »

If you know just 5things about a person:

1) - If they work in the public or private sector:
3) - If they attend church regularly
4) - Their family income
5) - Marital status
6) - Field of study if higher educated

you can predict with 95% accuracy how they will vote

I would agree that these are pretty accurate. I was just wondering what fields of study you'd associate with the Dems and likewise for the GOP.
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nclib
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Posts: 9,897
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« Reply #4 on: January 31, 2004, 03:21:51 pm »


I've heard things like that a lot, which I find interesting because I follow sports but certainly am very liberal. Does anybody have an explanation for why sports fans tend to vote more GOP than the national average?
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nclib
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Posts: 9,897
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« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2004, 03:49:00 pm »
« Edited: February 01, 2004, 04:13:00 pm by nclib »


I've heard things like that a lot, which I find interesting because I follow sports but certainly am very liberal. Does anybody have an explanation for why sports fans tend to vote more GOP than the national average?

And I also find it interesting that almost all former athletes/coaches who go into politics are Republicans. Sure Dems have Bill Bradley, but the GOP has Jim Bunning, J.C. Watts, Jim Ryun, Tom Osborne, etc.
-------
Oh, and Go Panthers!
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nclib
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Posts: 9,897
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« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2004, 02:57:35 pm »

Two Stars?  Five Stars?  What is that all about?

http://www.dcPoliticalReport.com/Ratings.htm

He explains it here, although that system is more suited for congressional races.
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nclib
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Posts: 9,897
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« Reply #7 on: February 10, 2004, 01:12:50 am »

I remember seeing that posted somewhere else, Beet. Do you happen to have a link or a list of all the states?
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nclib
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Posts: 9,897
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« Reply #8 on: March 15, 2004, 08:55:45 pm »

I know this is off topic (and is probably posted somewhere), but can somebody please explain to me how to post a 50 state electoral map here?
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nclib
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Posts: 9,897
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« Reply #9 on: March 15, 2004, 09:26:51 pm »

I keeps coming up a blank map--what am I doing wrong?
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nclib
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Posts: 9,897
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« Reply #10 on: March 15, 2004, 09:45:09 pm »


I've followed some of the work of Dr. McDonald since he was located in IL until recently. He has studied both redistricting as well as voter turnout. If I recall the trend to lower turnout was due to both immigration and incarceration.

You're right - he does talk about all of that. And he had, by far, the most interesting site on the 2000 (well, 2001-3) redistricting...pretty accurate, too. A pity it doesn't appear to exist any more... Sad

He stopped updating the redistricting scorecard after he moved to GMU. He has some interesting work at elections.gmu.edu/enhancing.htm.


Thanks for the link! There was a LOT of useful information there. He certainly has a talent for uncovering how things really work (or how they don't work) - case in point: why the Arizona approach to redistricting is better than the Iowa approach...

The interesting thing about the Arizona redistricting is that there was no intent to place the incumbents in 6 different districts--it just turned out that way.
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nclib
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Posts: 9,897
United States


« Reply #11 on: March 15, 2004, 09:53:18 pm »

I know this is off topic (and is probably posted somewhere), but can somebody please explain to me how to post a 50 state electoral map here?

In the prediction section, create a prediction, right click on the maps, select properties, copy the http://www.us... (it should take up many lines in the property window click before the "h" and drag the cursor down), paste it inside of an [img ] [/ img] without the spaces in the tags, and post.

It keeps coming up a blank map--what am I doing wrong?

I've been right-clicking inside the window but outside the map. Then I go to properties and the address is something simple like http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?

Does anybody know how to approach this issue?
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nclib
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Posts: 9,897
United States


« Reply #12 on: March 15, 2004, 10:09:09 pm »

I clicked on the white space between the 50 states and the window. Then I tried clicking on a state and the same thing happened.
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nclib
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Posts: 9,897
United States


« Reply #13 on: March 16, 2004, 12:03:35 am »

This is what I'd predict in a Bush-Kerry race. Subject to VP choice.

Image Link
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nclib
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,897
United States


« Reply #14 on: March 16, 2004, 12:06:42 am »

I know this is off topic (and is probably posted somewhere), but can somebody please explain to me how to post a 50 state electoral map here?

In the prediction section, create a prediction, right click on the maps, select properties, copy the http://www.us... (it should take up many lines in the property window click before the "h" and drag the cursor down), paste it inside of an [img ] [/ img] without the spaces in the tags, and post.

It keeps coming up a blank map--what am I doing wrong?

I've been right-clicking inside the window but outside the map. Then I go to properties and the address is something simple like http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/genusmap.php?

Does anybody know how to approach this issue?

same thing was happening to me. When you highlight the link, keep highlighting, ie, keep moving the mouse down and to the left; there is a whole bunch of letters and numbers after the genus bit Smiley

Took me a fortnight to work out at least :rolleyes:

Thanks a lot for your help! BTW, do you know how to make a map without having the code elongate the posting window? When I "preview", this happens, and then I can't find a way to post or preview from there.
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