2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Hi all,

I'm new to this forum, but I'm a political obsessive and the discussions here are really cool.  

I just posted my prediction map....maybe a little optimistic for the Democrats, but I think pretty reasonable.  It assumes the Dems nominate someone with at least some Southern appeal.

I have five Bush states switching:
Ohio
Louisiana
Arkansas
Arizona
Nevada

Louisiana seems to be the Southern state most amendable to voting for a Democrat, even during the Bush-era.  (Gov '03, Sen '02, LA-03 in '02)

Maybe it's a few years to0 early to shift Arizona and Nevada to the Dem column, but I'm pretty confidence they'll shift eventually given their growth and demographic changes.

I see Bush holding on to West Virginia and Florida (unless Bob Graham is VP).  The GOP showed real strength in FL in '02, and Bush is trouncing every Dem in all polls there (same with NH, come to think).  And I think the declining influence of labor in WV has turned it into a "Southern state" for good.

Nick G

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think the only Southern State that Kerry could carry (especially without Edwards) is Louisiana.   It had been trending Democratic (recent House, Senate and Gov wins), and unlike the rest of the South, is predominantly  Catholic.  I haven't seen any recent polls, though.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

you guys talking about the switch of colours for the democratic primary so Kerry is red, Edwards green and Dean purple?

I think they are talking about the map that lists the median of everyone's general election predictions.  Until now, it has always been identical to the 2000 results.