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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election
  2004 User Predictions - Discussion (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2004 User Predictions - Discussion  (Read 798241 times)
Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« on: January 17, 2004, 12:29:55 am »

My prediction (Democrats in Upper Case, Republicans in lower):

(Revised from one last year which gave Kentucky to the Democrats :rolleyes:

alabama
alaska
arizona
arkansas
CALIFORNIA
colorado
CONNECTICUT
DELAWARE
DC
florida
georgia
HAWAII
idaho
ILLINOIS
indiana
IOWA
kansas
kentucky
louisiana
MAINE
MARYLAND
MASSACHUSETTS
MICHIGAN
MINNESOTA
mississippi
missouri
montana
nebraska
NEVADA
NEW HAMPSHIRE
NEW JERSEY
NEW MEXICO
NEW YORK
north carolina
north dakota
ohio
oklahoma
OREGON
PENNSYLVANIA
RHODE ISLAND
south carolina
south dakota
TENNESSEE
texas
utah
VERMONT
virginia
WASHINGTON
WEST VIRGINIA
WISCONSIN
wyoming
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2004, 04:21:29 pm »

I've already registered to vote Wink

Map on the way Smiley
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #2 on: January 17, 2004, 04:25:56 pm »
« Edited: January 17, 2004, 04:27:33 pm by hughento »

How do you put images up?

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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #3 on: January 17, 2004, 04:41:48 pm »

sorry. If you didn't quote it, it might have gone away... Tongue
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2004, 04:47:55 pm »

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/PE2004/CAMPAIGN/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=828

hope that isn't too long

*bites nails*
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #5 on: January 17, 2004, 05:28:59 pm »

My prediction was Dean/Edwards

New England solidly Democrat (although Maine and NH will be close)

Tennessee will be very close, i think it'll go for Democrats b/c of Edwards
Nevada will go Democrat...just because Tongue

NM will be a tossup, i'm going with the incumbent (Democrat)

Ohio will be close, just in favour of Bush

WV...I think it'll be seeing alot of campaigning from Dean; it's a democrat state that has lost its way recently. He'll bring it back to the fold.

Optomistic, yes; but absolutely possible.

(BTW, of the tossups, 20 evs go to Republicans (Ohio), and 21 to Democrats (TN, NM, WV) so it's not an unfair distribution

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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #6 on: January 17, 2004, 05:39:27 pm »

Yes Delaware will be close Tongue

I forgot about it; all tucked away over there Tongue

Maine and NH will go Democrat if it's Dean; I put them as tossups b/c I didn't want it to look like I was unrealistically favouring the Democrats.
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #7 on: January 18, 2004, 05:48:11 pm »

Dean would raise attendance; many ABB people would turn out that wouldn't if it was Kerry or Clark or Edwards.

I think the most electable is Edwards; he might lose Oregon and Iowa but he would win Louisiana, Tennesse, and bring Arkansas, WV and Florida into play.

BTW, I agree with Miami. Kerry would still win CA, and I'd say Pennsylvania would be his too. I don't think he'd lose Michigan, but he might lose Wisconsin, and he'd win Maine.
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #8 on: January 18, 2004, 10:37:28 pm »

Surely Kerry would win Washington?
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #9 on: January 18, 2004, 10:51:52 pm »

OK, maybe not surely.

But he'd have a better chance at it then Bush, imo.
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #10 on: January 18, 2004, 11:08:07 pm »

yes, in my opinion.

imho means the same, with "humble" added.

I agree with of_this; Kerry would have to screw up to lose Washington, it has high turnouts.
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #11 on: January 19, 2004, 10:20:09 pm »

As an Iowan to a New Hampsh**te, I pass on the mantle of the "local" Smiley

Have 'fun'
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #12 on: January 19, 2004, 11:02:05 pm »

Ah, but did Carol Moseley-Braun go to your school?

Tongue
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #13 on: January 20, 2004, 06:05:58 pm »

I think Edwards can win; but Bush would have the better chance of the two. that said, Edwards would probably make it alot closer then Dean, Kerry or Clark.
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2004, 03:47:57 am »

BTW, can someone explain to me why Missouri is pronounced Mizzourah by easterners?

I've lived a few miles north of it for my whole life, and I've never heard it pronounced that way by an Iowan. I was watching the newshour and Jim Lehrer prounounced it "Mizzourah" and I almost burst out laughing. Tongue
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #15 on: January 27, 2004, 07:38:38 pm »

Best analysis is Newshour on PBS

but Fox or CNN do gets the news first, granted.
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #16 on: February 01, 2004, 12:22:14 am »

Don't you love conspiracy theorists?

Even if hat they say IS the truth, they say it in a way that makes them look stupid and reactionary, therefor eliminating any chance of it being taken seriously.

Shame, that.
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #17 on: February 01, 2004, 12:52:09 am »
« Edited: February 01, 2004, 12:53:39 am by hughento »

Hoardes of French Canadians are amassing on the border, with plans to make all New Englanders go "Hor hor" in that annoying laff of theirs. Wilson Hubble, A resident of Caribou, ME, saw someone he described as "Tall, skinny and frenchie-lookin'". It is believed to be former Canadian Prime Minister, Jean Chretien. Gail Byrd of Niagara, NY, said "We always see 'em comin' over to the land of the free; but now they'm coming in ten times as much!"

America has long feared this day. Now that it is upon us, do as Clarke Mitchells of Ogdenburg, NY is planning to do. "Go shoot sum dang blasted froggy canucks".

(No offense to Canadians, or residents of the towns mentioned, btw Smiley)
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2004, 03:26:41 am »

Here is my president forever prediction of a clark/edwards ticket...

DEMOCRAT
HA
WA
OR
CA
NV
IA
LA
IL
MI
OH
TN
WV
VA
DC
MD
DE
NJ
NY
CT
RI
MA
VT
NH
ME

with the rest republican. If anyone could be bothered to do an EV count, that would be cool. in the game there were still 160 undecideds (I only have the demo)
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2004, 04:47:15 pm »

well considering clark is from VA and Edwards is from neighboring NC, its not impossible.

As I said, it was the games prediction, not mine. but it was a fun game so I thought i'd post it. Next I'll do a Kerry/Edwards and see what happens Smiley
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #20 on: February 06, 2004, 05:06:58 pm »

whatever, its just a game Tongue

Here is Kerry/Edwards. if you ant to be completely shcoked, read on:

DEMOCRAT
Hawaii, Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, SD, Kansas, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Tennessee, Mississippi, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, DC, Delaware, maryland, New Jersey, and all NE states minus NH. I was winning Kansas by a margin of 14, and losing NH by 18 :rolleyes:
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #21 on: February 06, 2004, 11:03:01 pm »

I also have no idea how I got that Tongue
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #22 on: February 21, 2004, 01:42:59 am »

The florida race was so close because of the bring 5 campaign, where african-americans were encouraged to bring five friends and relatives with them when they voted.

Whilst it was highly sucessful for those who were allowed to vote...
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #23 on: February 21, 2004, 06:26:19 pm »

The only qualification was the same four first letters of the surname and given name, the rest good be 'similar'. Middle names could be different, they could have suffixes (Jr., II, etc.), and it wouldn't matter.

Also, only people who were incarcerated in Florida and other states that purged ex-felons were allowed to be purged, but they purged people who had been incarcerated in states that restored their rights, like New York. Considering 90% of ex-felons vote Democrat, just these few thousand people who were not allowed to vote would have swung the election.
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Platypus
hughento
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,472
Australia


« Reply #24 on: February 21, 2004, 08:20:52 pm »

slight exaggeration, its more like 88%.

Also, 80% of the people who were excluded were ot black, it was around 40%-still disproportionally high, but not by such a huge margin.

Eitgher way, it was illegal, immoral and disgusting.

It was just another example of the partisanship of our elections-n both sides-and it needs to be stopped. We need a nation-wide, independent body, like Britain has, that runs the elections, not individual states, and even worse, counties.
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